Hate to say it, but it looks like history is not on your side

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27…

Notice that whenever the bubble popped, it took at least 5 years before the bottom was reached. If history were to repeat itself, we are looking at 2012. Plenty of realtors have an entire carton of egg on their face trying to call a bottom. There will be plenty more to come.

I hope you don't lose your shirt. But yes, it can happen. If you put 10% down, and the market goes down 4%, and you find yourself in a situation where you need to sell (e.g. lost job and can't pay mortgage) you will lose all your equity (it cost 6% to sell).

Good Luck

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:49

Firsttimer: If you recently purchased a home for the same price that it was at in 2004, I'd say you did well. Pricing should go up again nationally, but no one has the crystal ball to predict exactly when and how much. I don't see how you could possibly "lose your shirt" if you're not even considering selling for several more years. You should do fine, based on past history. Just hang on!
Peggy Nelsen
Relocation Director
Prudential California Realty

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:25

If you hold on to your property for several (5, 10 or more) years, you'll likely be ok, at least in terms of nominal prices. In real dollars possibly less so, but again in the long term real estate usually turns out ok.

For a sobering perspective: we bought a place in So Cal in 2000. Our nominal price was only 15% higher than the previous owner had paid in the 1980s. In real terms (adjusting for inflation etc) we paid less than he did, 15 years or so later.

But if you enjoy your home and don't foresee moving anytime soon, then you should probably focus on that enjoyment :) The market value of your home only matters when you sell it (or refi).

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:25

The only way to know for sure is wait and see. We all hope that real estate market will have a positive change soon!

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:21

they will forsure be going up in may , so dont wait buy Now , please contact me if you need help with your search , thank you for waiting for my answer patiently i do aploigize was recently in hospital stasting to feel better , remember you are valued to me . Jennifer Connelly

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:17

That is a good question. Many of my collegues and I think that prices will hit bottom this year and level off. Then they remain somewhat flat for the remainder of this year and begin a return to a modest rate of increase in 2009. This is only an opinion. There is no way to predict the end of these troubles in the real estate market.

Since you state that you plan to stay in your home for a few years, I believe that you will weather the remainder of the storm well. I think you made a good decision and as long as you do not have to sell anytime soon, you will end up with a net gain in your home's value.

The National Association of realtors says that this is great time to buy and I agree! Good luck with your new home and I hope you have many happy years there.

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:14

It's hard to say what your exact market is doing since I am in NC, but overall if you are not moving anytime soon I think it's fairly safe to say you will not lose your shirt. Houses as a whole appreciate over time. The real estate market goes in waves, like most things it has it's ups and downs. Right now is just one of those lulls. Don't panic and just enjoy your home and take care of it. They estimate by next year things should be leveled out. A home is a great investment. You are building equity and not throwing money away on rent so that alone you are building towards your future. I would advise you to stop listening to the media, they play on people fears and that's how they get a story. For the facts I would call a local real estate office in your area and just ask them what your market is doing. That might help calm your fears some.

Wed Apr 9 2008, 13:07