Develop a relationship with a savvy Realtor in your area and get on their mailing list so you can watch the market. As long as you hold the property for a few years you will make money on it for sure. There is no crystal ball, unfortunately, that tells us when the bottom of the market or the top of the market will hit... the only thing we have are past cycles to looks at and in any case, holding a property for 5-10 years before selling is always a good investment.

Thu May 8 2008, 13:15

Relax. If you paid the same amount that it sold for in 2004, you've got a property poised for appreciation. How soon that begins and how much depends on your geographical location and any local factors that might influence land values. And please remember: you bought the home, not as a get-rich quick scheme, but as a solid investment and a tax shelter. Think how much better off you'll be in 10-20-30 years than if you kept renting!

Sun Apr 27 2008, 17:48

It sounds like you are doubting yourself, but it really isn't your intent to move or sell right now. Unless you have reason that you must relocate quickly, take a deep breath, relax, and enjoy your home.

No one knows what will happen in the next year. Your area might face additional downward pressure. If you are going to be in your home for a a number of years, it becomes a paper loss, and a temporary one.

While I don't know the details of your purchase, on the surface, there are not indicators that you made poor choices. You bought recently at a price point equal to 4 years ago. That doesn't sound like you were paying premium pricing. Again, I don't have any specifics, so my review is on a superficial level.

It certainly does not sound like a decision to lead you to financial ruin. In your own words, you were looking for a home. it sounds like you purchased at a decent price, and so, now....enjoy your home. Do you have a reason that you need to consider selling? Or are you simply nervous?

Sun Apr 27 2008, 16:51

According to the Homebuilder's Economic conference in Washinton several months ago, we're looking at 2009 before things start turning around. Will it happen then? There's still a lot of inventory that needs to be absorbed before we see it happen.

Sun Apr 27 2008, 16:43

Real estate is local, true to a certain extent. The economy is global. Lending is global. Banks everywhere are not lending unless the borrower has very good credit score and a large downpayment. So with the economy in the tank and few qualified buyers around, it can mean only one thing everywhere - downward pressure.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24311464

Sun Apr 27 2008, 16:36

Barbara
Local experts are fine if they are objective. Agents are not objective, you can't be when your income depends on houses selling.

Attached is a Zillow chart for the area, they too seemed to peak later. However you don't have to be a mathematician to see where it is headed.

Again, the answer to her question is: No not stupid, just don't expect to make money on the house if you sell in a few years.

Sun Apr 27 2008, 11:39

Greg,

Real Estate is LOCAL. In central florida we didn't see rampant appreciation until 2005. We peaked in 2006. So it depends. 2004 pricing might not be so terrible. I own real estate in San Antonio and while length of time on the market is getting longer the pull back in pricing has been minimal. In Louisiana it may be similar. AND SINCE WHEN have national economists goten it right? I watch CNBC nearly every weekday morning. The experts disagree with each other ...we have no real consensus to guide us. I'd rather rely on local experts reporting what is happening in their local markets.

Sun Apr 27 2008, 11:21

I guess I am the "disgruntled homeowner buyer"? You know what happens whey you "ass/u/me"

I am a homeowner for 15 years, and I LOVE my house. It will end up being a great investment. I bought in 1997, a great time to buy. It was luck, I just wanted to move then. 2004 was the peak of the biggest bubble in history. It was bad lucky that you bought then. Houses will appreciate again. I agree with that. However, it will be after we return to historic levels. They never should have gotten to the 2004 level in the first place. If you spend more than 3x your family income on your house you are hostage to it, that it why we will drop back to historic prices.

Sun Apr 27 2008, 11:01

Your not stupid, but you did make a mistake. However, if you can wait it out, you will eventually see a positive return on your investment. The mistake you made was not researching the property more in depth, but you know that now so...lesson learned. Ignore the disgruntel home buyers who have obvioulsy been burned by real estate agents or who have most likely lost their home to foreclosure. The problem right now is do to the high volume of people who should have never even been qualified to buy a home, who are foreclosing. The market "looks bad because of the high volume of bank owned properties listing for lower than the appraised amount. And because they are bank owned, they are sold as-is, and in most cases not cleaned/upgraded/staged to show properly, making an already weary buying market less inclined to buy. The outcome is, renting is up and at record low rates, and high volumes of homes are sitting...unsold...for less than their worth. Bottomline, 1 million houses will not sit vacant for long, when they are sold, the market will stabalize and property will begin to appreciate. With that said, even though I believe real estate agents don't care wether or not you can afford a home as-long-as you can qualify and close so they can make commission, they are right about the news just reporting the negative. The Nation is currently in a scenario where the statistics can be interpreted both ways, and CNN will always run the story about the trainwreck before it runs one about a sunny day.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 20:29

HI.
I am a realtor in Pinehurst NC, Here we have been lucky ,so far .We still have just about the same volume of home sold and bought a year. We do however have a decline in pricing of re-sale home's and builders are trying to "wait out" the wave of very very low offers on new homes.
I believe that we won't see a stable housing market for another year and a half maybe two. I suggest that you hold on to your home ( if you can) and just update the things in your home that you know would go well with buyers. And before you know it prices will stabilize and even go back up little by little. I do hope you are not in a hurry to sell, because of a mortgage you cannot afford anymore.Try to re-finance with a bank that you have done good business with for a while. AND don't be afraid to bargain with banks , they are just a business like evry other business.They can and often do try to giveyou what you want .But don't forget to ASK.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 12:25

Yes, don't listen to Yale Economists, instead listen to a Louisiana RE Agent. He knows more. LOL

We will be down for many years. You paid at the peak of a market artificailly created by the sale of mortgages packets. People got burned buying them at too high a rating. You won't see them buying those again in our lifetime.

Enjoy the house, but don't think you made any money on it, you didn't. Sorry for the truth.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 10:15

The market is fairly stable with the exception of a few states like California , Florida, and Arizona. The market is very good here in La. and I truly believe that we will see prices start to appreciate in most areas by the end of this year. Don t believe much of what you hear on the Nat. news. For some reason they prefer to report all of the negatives and hardly any of the positives. Thanks, Larry Auger, West Monroe, La

Sat Apr 26 2008, 09:34

Were you stupid?...No Way- You made a great decision to purchase a home! Not only did you make an investment in your lifestyle where you will receive many non-monetary benefits, your home is the best long term investment you could make! Enjoy it!

Sat Apr 26 2008, 08:07

After the meltdown of home prices, there will be a leveling off period when the market will be stable again and the prices will begin to appreciate one again. Supply Demand factors kick in , so it depends where you are located and the population demand for housing. In some high demand areas when it comes back it will come roaring back while others will see smaller appreciation.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 07:45

Any nitwit can be a "RealEstatePro", in fact most are. Don't believe anyone on here who speaks in absolutes, like "you will definitely make money" or "it's definitely the time to buy." Over the long term, you should probably make money, but remember what John Maynard Keynes said, "in the long run, we're all dead."

Sat Apr 26 2008, 06:23

If you were looking for a deal, you will know when you go to sell if you got a good one or not. As for now, enjoy your home. Why spend time wondering if you think you did something "stupid" with this purchase. You really answered your own question...you were looking for a home and to me it sounds like that is exactly what you found. May you find many happy days with it and when you go to sell, I hope your market is favorable to you.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 01:17

In March Port Charlotte, Fla saw a 13% increase in home sales, my realtor has also seen an upward trend in sales in SW Florida, I just bought a large home in Bradenton, Florida which I close on next month, which I bought for $50,000 less than market value,mortgage rates are excellent at this time, good credit is now a must. I currently own 2 other homes, one of which is on the market, people are looking, which means people are still buying trying to get a deal. Don't run scared the economy always recovers and I have always found realestate to be a sound investment, but if your looking to make a killing selling, you may be disappointed. Unless u must sell, sit the market out.

Sat Apr 26 2008, 00:19

Hello Firsttimer,

"Was that really stupid?"

From my life experiences, of which there are many, I feel pretty confident saying that most people in the USA do not think it is a stupid idea to buy a house that you can afford to pay for, which you are going to live in and make your home. If you have bought a house that is within your means to pay for, then you don't really have anything financially to be very concerned about, unless you just like to worry about things you have no control over (like predicting the future). Given that some of the alternatives to buying a home are paying rent, living with mama, or in a travel trailer, all of which I have experienced, I like the own your own home option.

The price you paid is largely irrelevent at this point. Think of it like buying a new car and always wondering if you could have bought it somewhere for less. Of course, you could. There is always another day or another place to pay a few bucks less or more for something. But once you have bought your home, guess what, it's yours! Now you get to take care of it, improve it, and pay it off. Quit worrying about the value of it in dollars and cents, and squeeze out of it all the value it has as your home, a haven from an otherwise cruel world. Play your CD's loud, dance around in the kitchen, cook for freinds and family, and plant flowers, it's yours to enjoy!

Here is a new idea--If you really work on paying some extra towards the principal amount owed on your home mortgage, you will wake up some day and find that you have it paid for! yes, this actually works! And having your own home paid for is acknowledged by many independent financial advisors to be a pretty smart thing to do, since it provides you a roof over your head and allows you to invest the part of your income otherwise going towards your mortgage payment into home improvements, cash savings, retirement plans, tuition for kids educations, and other investments of your choice.

Congratulations on making a great choice. You'll do just fine. Quit reading any news about real estate and this forum!

Dan Therrell
Fairhope, AL

Fri Apr 25 2008, 23:49