Extremely hard if not impossible to tell...with the way things are going your guess or anyone else's is as good as mine. I would just say hopefully sooner rather than later!! I know that this doesn't help very much Jim, but if you would like me to let you know an approximate value in today's market of the properties you do own I would be more than happy to do so.

Please feel free to contact me if I can be of service to you.

Mahalo

Chris M.T. Bodden http://www.BoddenRealEstate.com

10 years based on history. When property values fell 50% in 1991, it took 10 years before the prices were back to normal. There were tons of foreclosure on the market and they needed to be sold before the market could recover.

It's going to be much worse than it was in 1991. In 1991, Hawaii crashed because the Japanese recession. Now, there is a Japanese recession and a severe US recession. In addition, there's the US mortgage and banking crisis which makes it harder to borrow money. Banks are no longer going to give out "funny loans" or loans at 40-50% debt to income ration. The market hasn't even bottomed out yet and you can tell because there are hardly any foreclosures on the market, compared to the 90s. Tourism is just now taking a hit.

The only chance for maintaining home values in if International buyers start investing because of the weak dollar. But that's not going to happen because Hawaii main international buyers are Japanese and their economy is also in the crapper. Japanese also happen to be the most risk adverse culture in the world, so they don't invest when there is instability.

Hawaii's market will crash big time in 2009/10 and it will last until the foreclosures are sold in 10 years.

Aloha Jim,

To quote an answer from the plastic oracle, the eight ball... "Out look hazy, try again later".

Aloha:

I am Broker In Charge at RE/MAX Honolulu.

Recovery for Hawaii is going to be long process. I would suggest 5-7 years.
Please view my First Quarter Report for Oahu for a further explanation at my website.

If you want accurate Sales Data for Oahu and associated Neighborhoods, please visit my website at http://www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com

You can email me directly at mikeg@hawaii.rr.com

Much Aloha,
Mike Gallagher
Broker in Charge
RE/MAX Honolulu

Some interesting reports can be found at the Bank of Hawaii website:
https://www.boh.com/econ/512_539.asp

Aloha:
My name is Mike Gallagher and I am Broker in Charge at RE/MAX Honolulu.
Please visit my website at http://www.hawaiirealestatestatistics.com and look at the 25 year graph of Oahu Market cycles. This will help give you a good idea of Market Conditions and be able to anticipate the future.

Direct questions can be sent to at mikeg@hawaii.rr.com

Much Aloha,
Mike G.

Jim, tough to answer your question without knowing what region/neighborhood you are interested in tracking. In today's balanced market, its imperative that you have the data at the neighborhood level. You read our neighborhood reviews at http://www.prudentiallocations.com/Special-Report-State-of-R…

Aloha Jim,
I, too, own some property on Oahu and since my livelyhood is local real estate, I'm very aware of the dip! It is my opinion that values will continue to go down slightly, but I don't forsee a drop as drastic as our last one. I tend to agree with a forcasted upturn after 2012, although I wouldn't mind an earlier upswing! The truth of the matter is, if you don't have to sell right now, it doesn't matter and as long as you can hang on during the downtimes there has always historically been a light at the end of the tunnel!

I posted this in another forum but I'll use it here also;

it is now a "buyer's market"! Buyer's have been waiting for years and now it has shifted from a seller's market to a balanced market to a buyer's market. The remaining months of inventory is 8.4 months and there may never be a better time to purchase than today! Interest rates are great, the economy is stable, selection of homes are good and seller's want to sell. Start spreading the word ....remember the only way anyone can tell when the bottom occurs is when we passed it! Investment time is right around the corner .....

This was mentioned by our Company President.


Aloha,
Scotty Wong
Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties

Aloha Jim, We are definately in a Buyers Market. Select neighborhoods, such as Kahala, Portlock and Kailua are still holding value. The decline in the US dollar is attracting International Buyers and I believe we will see activity pick up in resort areas,such as Waikiki and Ko'Olina. My company, Prudential Locations, LLC, is the leader is Hawaii Market reporting. I can send you the latest Market report that we have on file. You can email me at brynn.allen@pruhawaii.com and I will send you the report as an email attachment. Me ke aloha pumehana, Brynn