Yes, the numbers are staggering!
Put that together with the Manhattan reports and the picture is now clear.
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO1Q09.pdf
The question remains, where will it hold?

Suffolk Research just released 1st quarter figures, stunning even for those who follow this market: Southampton year over year shows a drop of 20% median price for houses and 64% for vacant land (yikes!). Volume of homes sold dropped 49.4% over 2008 and 64% since 2007!

This slide doesn't show a hint of stopping. It would take five years just to clear inventory already on the market.

http://www.suffolkresearch.com/1qtr09.pdf

That's where I'm calling this market 2003-04 values.
Since ur in Manhattan and out here, I trust you read http://www.urbandigs.com
Noah Rosenblatt calls it very much the same.

I appreciate your answer Michael, re: the lag time.

I know many buyers in the city who are simply waiting until the market comes to it senses. The Case Shiller index places the market now in Sept of 2003. So how hard is it to calculate the price? Bought 2002, add one year of appreciation. Bought 2005, subtract two years appreciation. Etcetera.

@Anna- I live here full time and have been a full-time agent in this market for 11 years.
you can see my profile at http://www.trulia.com/profile/michaeldaly/
Please see my blog at http://www.beachamptons.com

In reply to Michael Daly--I happen to have a home in Sag Harbor and many friends out there as well--so how much do you do.

AND, data is usually 3-5 months BEHIND actual market activity because every transfer has to go MANUALLY through the Suffolk County Offices and there is no market-wide data reporting system that the brokers will get behind.

I'm not sure I agree with your "worst case scenario" predictions, but I don't have any data to argue them at this point. Time will tell...

This thread has been going on for two years, my last post was almost exactly a year ago. Prophetic for what has happened to the Hamptons real estate market. The market was soft for the first three quarters of 2008, but now the storm has arrived:

http://www.suffolkresearch.com/medianprice.pdf

trailing average through Feb. shows a 17% drop in prices in three months, not year over year, THREE months. This does not even vaguely represent the market because in order to have a statistic we have to have a sale,and there simply aren't many. If these thousands of houses that are for sale were dropped to a price at which they would actually sell, we would show a much greater drop. HREO two years ago showed about 3800 houses for sale in the South Fork, as of this morning its 7,251, or roughly double.

My prediction is 3 bedrooms, 1/2 acre with a pool, will settle on $400k in most areas of the South Fork, less for the North Fork. Median price in the South Fork is at $560k today, which means fully half the sales are already below that!

Forgot? Anna, how much business have you done in Sag Harbor?

you should have given Chewie that choice earlier, since I forgot.

sure!
for sales figures, goto: https://www.lirealestatereport.com/QuarterlySalesMaster.asp
for listings. goto: http://www.hreo.com
or, call an agent who knows the market and ask them.

Do you have a better one?

Anna-
Less than 10% of the listing for the eastern Hamptons are on MLSLI.com.
So, what good does this answer do?

You may want to check http://www.mlsli.com for available and closed properties in the area.

Anna
917-576-5376
abrocco@laffey.com

tjanks for the information guys

There are no "market conditions" because there is no market. Exactly 2 of the over 260 houses for sale in Sag Harbor sold in the past three months. Inventory has doubled and sales have stopped. There are buyers out there but they are on the sidelines waiting for a massive correction.

As a Manhattan condo builder its incomprehensible to me that any bank would finance further building in the Hampton's market nor that the Attorney General's Office would approve any.

Hi Chewie- Median sales price for Sag Harbor Village shot up to $1,500,000 in 2006. Surrounding areas of the village, like Noyac runs around $650,000. Market conditions are quite balanced at the moment. There is a lot of inventory on the market and things are selling well, if price properly. Sag Harbor is bracing itself for a fairly sigficant influx of condos in the next few years. Several projects are in the approval process which will change the face of Sag Harbor, not necessarily for the worse.
What's most amazing to me ( a 10 year Sag resident) is to see the explosion in megag and giga-yachts that come to Sag harbor in the summer. Come on in, the waters fine!