Market Conditions in Tampa>Question Details

Ntfeldman,  in Tampa, FL

What do you think will help the Tampa residential real estate market stablize/recover the quickest?

Asked by Ntfeldman, Tampa, FL Tue Jul 24, 2007

Will it require Job growth? lower interest rates? first time home buyer growth? reduced sales prices? property tax relief? insurance rate relief? reduction of resale inventory (including foreclosures)? reduction of new home inventory? investor absorption?

What do you think it's going to take to stabilize this market?

Help the community by answering this question:


When prices return to normal rent v mortage, which will require that they drop an additional 30% to 50% which ought to occur sometime 2009.

An honest Realtor
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Feb 10, 2008
The Tampa market has seen an increase in activity in the past 3 months, I have had several recent calls from clients I spoke with 6 to 8 months ago concerning selling or buying a home in the area, these clients are now calling with a decision to move forward, they have waited long enough are thier words. As these are a limited few, I think a realty the market needs is a drop in interest rates,(although they are low) and a governmental hard stance on the real estate taxes and insurance, this will enable the 1st time buyers to enter the market and hopefully get others that have been in the holding pattern moving forward with thier purchase. Tampa is a great city with so much to offer, we did need to see the market correction that have occured over the past couple of years. I think we are getting close to stabilizing, we need the addition push from the above resources.
2 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jul 29, 2007
First thing.... i think we'll need more jobs for people that have been layed trough this few years.
Second and most probably the major reason, have some tax relief, or at least having the new property tax applied; let me give you an idea........
I saw my "investment" property going from $1300 to $ 4000 in the past 3 yrs, that's a 325% increase.
Now imagine what could I've done with the 225 a month, could go in vacation, buy a car, save it for another dwn pymt on a house.....therefore creating business! Did i say gas was 1.25 a gallon?
Web Reference:
1 vote Thank Flag Link Wed Oct 10, 2007
1st) Supply and Demand don't for get that for starts. 2ND All buyer's are investors so buyer's drove up the prices as buyer's dictate the market. When the State Government and local Governments of Florida realize the doc stamp on sales, yearly Insurance and taxes are out of hand then things will change but it's up to the buyer's. By the way I got my car insurance renewal and on the insurance quote there is a State mandated $7.21 charge for (FHCF) Florida Hurricane catastrophe fund . On my car what a joke. The Goverment in the state of Florida will drive away buyer's at the rate they are going.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 28, 2007
The number one cause of the slow market is the inventory brought about by the investors of 2004 and 2005. Until the inventory numbers go down, prices will continue to fall. Stabilization will occur when we see the inventory numbers going down. Right now we have in most areas of Tampa Bay a 1 year to 15 months inventory. Townhome sales are quite strong, while sales of single family homes are modest. Condo conversion sales are the real trouble spot and will likely take an extended time for the prices to go up.

Property tax relief, along with control of insurance rates should also go along way to help the market. Interest rates are still historically quite low, but of course any lowering rates will also help boost the market.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 26, 2007
I think that the market here in Tampa is doind quite well. Sales in the area have been going up since March. Not like they did several years ago but showing an upward rise. I beleive that some sort of tax relief would help as well as a reduction in inventory. Interest rates are still historically low. I would not worry about rates right now 6.5% is not high unless you can only remember back as far as 2004 when rates were half that. Ask some of the Realtors who were around in the early 80's.

I see the market stabilizing itself right now. Buyers have lots to look at and can make great deals on existing inventory. We as Realtors need to educate our buyers and sellers about the current market.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Tue Jul 24, 2007
The most important issue here is the communication and than the organization on all of the levels of the real estate transactions.The other important issue is the level of the education of the modern real estate agents.They would have to be able to place the new homeowner not only in the new house but also in the new job or career.What I mean by that is to communicate,communicate and one more time communicate with the job placement agencies and the future homeowners and than be able to work out the deal including a job placement.I can speak from my own experience.I'm a long time Tampa Bay resident (about 20 years) who resides now in Europe.Why? cause the real estate people I have been dealing with would let the situation to get out of hand and did nothing but practically pushed me out of my house instead of defending me as the American homeowner.Than waiting for a miracle to happen instead of working on the issue of the house sale they would just deny the urgency of the situation.I left USA and started from nothing one more time.Now I can live in Europe till the rest of my life but that is not what I have planned to do.I would like to come back to USA at certain point but I will not come back to uncertain situation.I'm just one of the thousands of Americans who have been placed in similar situation.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Sep 1, 2010
I think that the overall housing market needs to get back to 'normal levels' in order to stabilize. That will happen through foreclosures, and sellers that are able and willing to lower asking prices. That will then lead to a reduction of inventory.

I believe that interest rates will rise to over 10% in the next few years, thus lowering the principle price tag of homes as well. Prices need to fall a lot further in order to finally stabilize relative to income levels. Nothing is going to stabilize the inflated prices that we see today. These prices aren't based on income levels, but based on the ability to acquire homes with ARM mortgages and the like. Since those are now gone, these prices mean absolutely nothing in today's market.

The sooner government stops trying to postpone the inevitable, the better.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 16, 2008
A very intelligent and insightful answer Natalie, I wish there were more real estates pros on here who would answer questions truthfully and explain the situation as succinctly as you and I.

Instead most real estate pros on Trulia choose to follow the party line of the NAR and Lawrence Yun who everyone knows by now is a laughing stock and an embarrassment to realtor's everywhere.

An honest real estate pro
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 16, 2008
Theace, it's pretty hard to know when and where the turn will be.

I'm a numbers gal and we're still in an oversupply situation. I'm sticking to my 2010 prediction and I'm hoping a renewed optimism (post election), some well appointed cabinet members with sharped pencils and economically minded balance sheet goals will jump start important elements of the economy that stir the financial pot a little and catch this predicament before it becomes catastrophic.

I did meet with a friend last week who has direct ties to wall street and apparently there's "plenty of money". I trust his knowledge, he's one of the most brilliant financial minds of our era. This gave me great resolve that things will rebound sooner than later. But we've got a corner to turn on this market and we're just not there yet.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 16, 2008
I have cut and pasted below this classical and typical lie from a realtor posted in October of 2007 and since that time the real estate market has dropped an additional 19% points. I wonder if Raquel would have the gaul to call bottom here in August 2008?

An honest real estate pro.

"We have started to increase. I think we have bottom out. I dont predict that we will decline anymore. Florida is one of the top 3 states to move to. We have a low unemployment rate and the Tampa bay area is highly attractive to new comers. Stay positive its contagious."

Raquel Zapata-Gonzalez
Licensed Real Estate Consultant
Cell: 813-294-7264
Fax: 813-655-1878

Thu Oct 18 2007, 13:37
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Aug 16, 2008
We have seen decent sales activity during the past season.....the very first step toward recovery from this point is a bonified continuation of activite between now and next December. Anything short of this will see us continuing to loose ground.

Thus far the signs have been good for continued activite....let's hope it continues.

The "Eckler Team"
Century 21 Almar and Associates
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat May 17, 2008
This question was posted 9 months ago... interesting replies but it's not getting appreciably better. There's still a huge supply of inventory (23 months) in the Tampa metro area. We're in the "season" right now - so activity has picked up in April but we're way off prior years velocity.

But there's an interesting "pocket" that will form for those who get in before the stablization - for a brief window (let's call it 4 months) there will be spurt of price apprecation out of the slump (which by the way I don't predict until spring 2010 and only then so long as there's not a deluge of foreclosures - which could occur but probably won't). Why the spurt of apprecation? No new home inventory in the pipe - virturally none.

Once the market begins to grab a little traction and resales become stable the ramp up time to bring new home inventory to market will take at least 120 days (to deliver).

Want to time the swing? My prediction is buy well over the next 6 mos., hold at a positive cash flow and plan to exit (with a 1031 or refi) in the spring of 2010 during the spurt.

Max return.

Good luck, have fun, make money.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 30, 2008
We have started to increase. I think we have bottom out. I dont predict that we will decline anymore. Florida is one of the top 3 states to move to. We have a low unemployment rate and the Tampa bay area is highly attractive to new comers. Stay positive its contagious.

Raquel Zapata-Gonzalez
Licensed Real Estate Consultant
Cell: 813-294-7264
Fax: 813-655-1878
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 18, 2007
The market is going through a correction, the property taxes went up with the inflated values of real estate and as property owners when the corrections take hold the values will drop and so the taxes will also have to be rolled back regardless of what the state does. As the property values decrease the affordability to first time home buyers will also increase. Another plus for the first time home buyer that didn't opt to buy with no money down at 1% is those homes will be going to foreclosure and were already in the lower price ranges giving first time home buyer more options. From a sellers point of view it is going to get worse from a buyers point of view it couldn't be better. Take out your data bases and contact old clients and educate them about the market
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jul 29, 2007
All of those factors you mentioned affect the housing market, no matter what part of the country you live in. The two biggest things that are affecting my market are the spike up in interest rates, as this reduces a buyers “buying power” and the fact that my market is flooded with inventory. Sellers in my market have no choice but to price competitively against the 50 other homes they are competing with if they want to be one of the one that sells, thus reducing the values of the “comps” used when determining a fair market value for the new inventory.
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jul 24, 2007
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