Based on a deepening Euro-recession (>11% Euro-zone unemployment) and bailout frenzy, worsening global debt overhang (expect $20T U.S. debt by 2015), huge remaining backlog of bank-owned homes waiting to be listed (2-3 million), and an epidemic of underwater mortgages in Sonoma County that's getting worse not better (40% of all mortgages in Sonoma County are now underwater, and growing), I see little basis for sustained value growth for at least 2 to 4 years. Alas, I see just the opposite -- continued downward pressure through 2015.
Well priced properties are pulling in multiple offers and in several cases over asking price.
As far as the 3-5 year outlook only time will tell us how this local market will fare.
Domaine Real Estate
Web Reference: http://www.eSonomaHomes.com
The market in general is up over the last 4 months, including Sebastopol. Since there are more country properties in that area, they do tend to sit longer on the market as compared to other cities like Santa Rosa and Windsor. Currently, there are 65 properties that are available in Sebastopol and 41 that are in contract.
Since the holidays are here, sales in general tend to slow down until after the New Year.
Let me know if you need anything. My cell is always on for you.
Kenneth Schrier Real Estate Group
CPS Property Advocates
cell - 707.529.4819
email - http://firstname.lastname@example.org
Web - http://www.kenschrier.com
I recently completed an analysis of the real estate market over the last 2 years for most of the towns in Sohoma county, including Sebastopol. Overall, Sebastopol is as strong a market as any other town in the county--Healdsburg and Kenwood/Sonoma/Glen Ellen will have higher price point properties but Sebastopol's close proximity to the Bay Area, its schools, community and scenery are a strong foundation for the real estate market. Interestingly we never saw the high supply of home for sale that we saw elsewhere in the county. The market currently is characterized by low inventory and many multiple offers, with the market weaker at the upper price ranges. Even so, special properties over a million have sold with multiple cash offers. I don't know anyone with a crystal ball, but most do not expect appreciation to recur for some time, and some people anticipate a further decline at the national level. Overall, I would expect Sebastopol, the North Bay and the geographically confined Bay Area (.i.e. not Antioch and Brentwood) to outperform other markets in the state and nation.
This post looks at country properties, 2 acres or more, for Sonoma County as a whole. Sebastopol has so many beautiful country properties I thought I would include a link as well.
I do have more detailed data for Sebastopol if you would like me to email it to you I would be happy to do so.
I 've got a flippant answer for you. If any of us had a three to five year crystal ball, we would have been out of the real estate business in 2005. It turns out Goldman Sachs was betting against the housing market for years, even as they sold more bundles of crummy loans.
On the more serious side, my feeling is that Sebastopol kept prices solid much longer than any other area of Sonoma County last year. This year they have finally joined the rest of the county and taken some markdowns from the high prices of the bubble years. When they are again in sync with the rest of us we can plateau and grow together. In the long run, Sebastopol will be a desirable town that has always drawn buyers concerned with high quality schools and a great quality of life.