BEST ANSWER
If you are not going to build a cabin on the land for 3 or 4 years you might be better off waiting because I believe prices will in fact fall in the coming years. When you look at the MLS inventory right now for Shaver Lake there are between 80-90 lots for sale. Based on the current sales pace and standing inventory the Shaver area has around 8 years worth of supply on the market. I just pulled some numbers recently that show only 12 lots sold in 2007 and one of the largest developments called "Quartz Mountain" with 104 lots just opened two years ago and they have only sold "1" lot as of today. The prices are simply too high for the average buyer especially when you take into account the cost to built a cabin in Shaver? The same developer who is selling lots at Quartz Mountain is also developing "Wildflower Village" and they just cut the prices 15% across the board last August and that only produced "3" lot sales in Wildflower Village - Phase V development over the last 8 months. The supply and demand is way out of balance at Shaver when it comes to vacant lots and too many sellers are chasing a market that no longer exists. The only way to revitalize the market now will be lower prices across the board; however many seller's are chasing a market that no longer exists. Did you know that 35% of all lots for sale today have been on the market since 2005? There might be a few bargains this year if you can find a "motivated seller", but I would demand rock bottom prices or just walk away from the deal. The Shaver area will be a buyer's market when it comes to vacant lots for the next 5 to 6 years and maybe beyond. One last point a majority of the lots for sale today were purchased within the last 8 years (during the boom) and now everybody seems to be running for the exit to cash out. I live in Fresno and was just up there in February.
Tue Apr 8 2008, 15:37
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