Another listing that is close to my predicted price ranges.

Out of curiosity, how much do utilities run a 4000sf home in the San Ramon area?

thousands or ARMs will reset this year in SRV. these are not sub-prime but ARM which will increase monthly payments substantially for many owners who bought 2005-2007. They were hoping to sell or refinance. They can't do either now. So many are upside down, or will be unable to make monthly payments. At the same time, lenders are cautious without large down payments and jumbo rates are near 8 % or higher. What does this all mean? The worst is yet to come. Will see a significant increase in inventory etc. Add a dash of slowing economy and you have.......super housing crash lasting at least 2-3 years more. Great time to buy is when no one wants to touch SRV real estate. I think that is 2011.

When I talked with Builders in Windemre, there are total 400 more single family homes leftto be built in Windemere. Overall, they are in the last phase of development. There is no more NEW community coming up in Windemere.

Anyone knows how many more single family homes are going to be built in Windemere and Gale Ranch? I think Windemere started develop since 2004 and already built over thousands of homes...

In dublin, it is very close to your range now.

In San ramon, another 5%-10% drop will reach it.

I am in the same boat too. After reading all the postings here I will wait till another six months. I was looking for 2200 - 2500 sqft homes in 650K to 700K range in Dublin/San ramon area. Hopefully the prices will drop to that range.
Good luck to you all.

Hi Mugen:

It is hard to catch absolute bottom. I suggest that you shall set a price entry point. My entry point is 3000sqft at about $750k in Winderemere and Gale Ranch. I do not expect to get it from builders, they just stop building instead of sell them at loss. You can get good deal from REO and Short sales.

I use http://www.suehoff.com to check property listings in San Ramon. You can subscribe to get e-mail notice when new listing and price change occurs. Some listing is clearly disclosed as REO in description. You can also use trulia.com and refin.com to check their previous sales record. If the listing price is much lower than previous sale, it is most likely a REO or Short sale.

So far the lowest REO sale in Windermere is $800k for 3000sqft and $680k for 2000sqft property.

If you find a REO property you like and price is close to or lower than your entry point, you can try to low ball a offer or bid it slightly up. Right now more and more banks list their REOs lower than market and wait for buyers bidding it up. I will put a close eye on these REOs:

http://www.trulia.com/voices/Market_Conditions/Second_round_…
http://www.redfin.com/CA/DUBLIN/4372-ROSCOMMON-Way-94568/hom…
http://clients.listingalert.net/clientorganizer/organizer/li…
http://clients.listingalert.net/clientorganizer/organizer/li…

Hi Kyuuket..

I am planning to move to San Ramon and start looking Windermere and Gale Ranch couple months ago. But after I read your post, I would hold and wait (6 months+) til they drop more. BTW, Where do you find these REO houses in Windermere. If you would share the information to me where I can find all the REO homes and current market price of Windermere and Gale Ranch area would be great.

Thanks.
Mugen

Builder can moth ball their development but banks can not. They will do whatever they can to get rid of as fast as possible. Recently they start slashing price like crazy. Really interested to see what the final sale price of the one I listed in my original posting.

Check realtytrac.com yourself. You can get a whole picture how serious the forclosure is. Most of the distressed property will flood the market within months. This is the second round. Unlike the first round which is initiated by builders, it will be triggered by ROE and short sales.

It seems Centex dropped prices in La Sera/Sera Vista. They are almost sold out with one home left. Agree with someone on inventory. If one builder sold out, more likely other builder may not slash prices that much. Good luck in ur search

I 100% agree as I have been tracking prices in san ramon and dublin. I prefer dublin due to commute etc. I am hoping I can get a golf course view house 3500+ sq.ft in the 800K range and the more I think about it the better it gets.
Hopefully by the end of this year but I think this downturn will continue for a year or so...Even if there are buyers banks have no or little money to loan out and they are extra caution on lending out money in the declining housing market its a pure catch 22. With inflation rising at recond pace we may even see 2000-2001 prices..

Hi Homebuy08:

Just like you, I am also a buyer. I have been tracking San Ramon property sales from beginning of this year. I do find out the price at Winderemere community start eroding gradually. First, Centex start cutting price aggressively and bring 3000sqft down to $850k to $900k range. Then Bank own and Short sales start catching up. One recent REO sale for a 2900sqft home sold at $800k. Check realtytrac.com for NOD and foreclosure lists in San Ramon. My calculation shows 1 foreclosure per day in San Ramon alone. A large quantity of distress property just start coming out of gate. Bank will slash price more aggressive than Builder. Builder can stop building but bank must clean their balance sheet. That will eventually bring down 3000sqft to $750k, maybe within 6 months. It is not only the total volume of distressed inventory, but the number of must sell property in a short period. Their are just not enough buyers to absorb the tsunami in such a short time. Nothing can prevent that ugly downward spiral. Only price and time will provide cure. If inflating picking up and rate rocks higher, it may deteriorate even more.

In this market condition, today's exception will become tomorrow's nominal. Middle of next year, we will finally see the bottom when one of the BLC builders go out of business. It is more likely to be B or C.

Although I'm very hopeful that the price prediction of $250/sq.ft will come true, I'm not sure that will happen. Builders have slowed down construction and neither the new home prices nor the resale homes are anywhere near these prices. One or two homes in these price range maybe just Exceptions. But you never know what will happen. Within 6 months to a year, the home prices in Stockton or for that matter even Mountain House dropped by 40%.

Another scenario is what would happen if say, out of the three builders in Windemere, one of them closes out all it's communities rapidly ? With lesser competition, will the remaining builders still want to drop prices ?

So, as long as there are buyers willing to pay $300/sqft, the price drops may not happen. The question therefore is, how much pent up demand for homes exist in Windemere ?

Is there a question in there somewhere?

3000 at $750K, you are dead on.We are going to see it happen by end of this year. Even at that price, still no one will purchase for investment purpose. Right now it is about $800k to $850k range. Another 5-10% drop will make it happen.

The 2000 SF and 4000 SF have about the same percentage deduction, but I prefer the 3000 SF home at $250/SF. Good luck!