According to the National Association of Realtors, the bottom will occur in the beginning of 2008. The answer is no one really knows. If they did then they would be drinking margaritas in the Bahamas somewhere. The Case-Schiller index sees Orlando as one of the most dangerous markets for a continued decline. The PMI Index rates Florida, California, Nevada, and Arizona most likely to see price declines in the next two years. The condo market in Orlando is much worse than the market for single family homes at the moment and will take longer to recover. In Metrowest, condo conversions are pretty much impossible to sell. Stonebridge and Villa Capri will sell if priced super aggressively and advertised like crazy. I currently have 3 townhomes for sale in the area and have sold a lot in these developments the past 2 years.

Our current market conditions are very similar to the period following the S&L Scandals in the early 90's. Only difference is that the interest rates are low right now.

Here's a few of my blog postings that go into more detail about the state of the real estate market:
http://sworlandoblog.com/2007/10/10/orlando-remains-on-list-…
http://sworlandoblog.com/2007/08/28/home-prices-see-worst-de…
http://sworlandoblog.com/2007/09/04/nar-predicts-improvement…

William,
Condo's are hard to sell in Metrowest just now, but you have a 3 bdrm (advantage) good area (advantage) only disadvantage I can tell is that it seems as though your unit is on the 3rd fl.

I did a quick search of solds in the tax rolls but not seeing the fireside sales you speak of. Found 3 other sales (2 bdrm, first fl units) for $302, $315 and $345. I saw nothing for 190 with exception of 1 bdrm units from 2005 and 2006 which are not comparable to yours.

MLS may show some pendings or actives that do not reflect actually recorded sales, but I ran out of time as I have an appt ;-) If you are interested in selling, let me know and I'll spend more time looking up info.

To answer your question about this being the 'bottom of the market' - unfortunately, probably not. If you'd like to email me direct for more info, send to PaulaBean@HomeOrlando.com.

William,

We all wish we had that answer. I understand that Orlando is starting (although very slow) to sell again. Clermont seems to be getting stronger (this is based on MLS numbers only). South Florida is still pretty much at a stand still and North Central Florida (Lady Lake) where I am is still very slow with the prices still dropping but not as much as quickly. Of course we are generated largely by The VIllages and are just coming into our buying season. I strongly feel for this part of the country as it is so unique with baby boomer retirees, this winter will show us where we stand.

Hope this helps a little,
Linda J Sears