Tom, Home Buyer in Edison, NJ

Mercer County NJ RE

Asked by Tom, Edison, NJ Sun Oct 26, 2008

With 200,000 layoffs in this area, what will it do to the RE. I think prices are going to 1990 levels or may be lower !!! Any comments / honest advise ?

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OMG ...Now they are saying 350,000 financial industry jobs will be lost. NJ is going to look more like Detroit .
Median home price $40,000 in 2009!!!

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anWW4DNa…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Nov 22, 2008
Hi Shalu

I have worked in Finance Industry for last 10 years. I have seen some ups and down. Believe me it is different this time. As I said wait for next 3-5 months and see it for yourselves.
Just as many RE agents joined the profession at high tide, there were many young professionals who joined Finance / IT professions at high tide and bought expensive homes. Many of them will just find out that they have lost their good paying jobs and have hard time paying their mortgage or finding next jobs that pay as old one. I am not rejoicing at their sorrow. I am rejoicing because the white collar scam finally came to an end which will now serve the best interests of all working class Americans. History has shown bloated real estate / asset prices do not serve any country or community or people except people on top of the scam. Bailout was shameful and time will tell how the money was misused. We as a country should learn to practice before we preach to the world on free market economies. To me, We have lost all respect since bailout. When it ends its will be very ugly. CA, Fl, AZ have seen their share, NJ, IL, MA is next.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 27, 2008
Hi Tom,

There was so much passion in your post......the references you're making can be found here.

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2008/10/23/2008-10-23_wall_…

I have clients in Merril Lynch, friends & family as well - Goldman Sachs & Bank Of America ---Chase...a lot of the Wall St. firms.
So far, all doing well...in secure jobs-- all in jobs that add revenue to the employer, though, I must add.

Layoffs are not a new thing. ( I was an executive recruiter ) ....the media reporting of it plays into the adding of unease & fear.

Your jumping onthe bandwagon of the 200000 layoffs ----that have yet to happen -is testament to the effectiveness of such reporting.

Merrill is a big employer in the Hopwell- Lawrence area - So is BMS.
Princeton has Goldman Sachs, Bank of America

The trumoil & the cost cutting may mean pink slips for a segment of its employees - we'll find out in the 1st quarter of 2009.
However, how it calls for rejoicing when someone loses their job , is totally beyond me.

If you understand the nature of American business, consolidation is part of it's culture & layoffs have been a recurring phenomenon in various guises.

Your rejoicing- it wasn't clear if you're happy about Wall Street's demise or the ending of the real estate boom.

The latter was ineviteable- the former - pray that housing stabliizes or elese the $700B+ bailout will be paid by all of us- including you.........if you remember, it was funded by taxpayer money.

The real estate markets in areas with a train connection to manhattan & top rated school districts, sufferred the lowest declines & that is a reality that is present in the levels of inventory, the days on market & list to sale price ratios....as well as the # of homes going under contract & making it to closing.

if one is in the market & servicing these buyers, one can only be aware of what is actualy happening.
.....I know it sounds hard to believe.

I do agree with you that this market has not been a good one for a lot of real estate agents.

The ones who entered this business with a get rich scheme - with little or no training or knowledge . Or ones who got by with misrepresentation or without having to get hands on- educating themselves & their client, keeping track of trends & dealing with the frustrations that this shifting market brought.

The good news is that a lot of such agents have left or are in the process of leaving.

A lot of people involved in this real estate business- the ones for the long haul, I think, understand that this was a & is a necessary cleansing process- we had to have this happen to get to a better , cleaner housing buying & selling process- It will mean a much smaller pool of buyers in 2009 , maybe a little bit bigger one in 2010.......but the improvements should hopefully return us to normal levels - prices, lending practices , a real estate proces that upholds integrity & keeps the client's satisfaction in mind, as the end goal.

For now, as someone said to me, we must go through it to get throught it.
Web Reference: http://www.SoldByShalu.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 27, 2008
Thanks for the replies so far and its amazing how ignorant RE agents are of job market conditions either deliberately or otherwise. 200k layoffs are based on NY city budget assessment for 2009. If you google for this you will find hundreads of articles. I am just pasting one to save you trouble.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27345070
Reality is Party of 21st century is over. Stop getting excited and stop dancing. Wall St is history. No more Investment Banks and hedge funds, no more exotic bonuses and no more scams. And lastly no more exotic home prices. Even if you have education, one will not find the same high paying job one had few years back.
In fact many bankers are moving to other states or overseas.
Wait till Christmas. Merryl Lynch CEO has said they are going to cut thousands of jobs and you know where most of their jobs are. Other investment banks revenues are down to 35% of 2006/2007 revenues because their cash cow of phony mortgage backed securities and derivaties is dead. How will they retain the same level of staff when their revenues are down so much ? Out of 200k, at least 100k people will be from NJ and many of them from Princeton area!!!. Wait for more 3 months and see what happens with your own eyes.
Like Greenspan you will be shocked and in disbelief.

~Tom.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 27, 2008
Tom: When the economy plunges, sales do too. However, which came first and will recover first? Could be that housing leads down and lags up but that is an economist's game to predict. As of right now prices are down. If the layoffs do not resulting later hirings, then the long-term price level will be lower. (See NE Pennsylvania's coal country for an example.)

Should you buy now? If you have a job that will last and can get financing, you should concentrate on your housing needs and not "the market" which is unpredictable at this point.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 27, 2008
If you meant 200,000 layoffs in NJ........how & where are you getting these figures?

Do you know what industry / sector these 200,000 layoffs represent?
Are these all homeowners or tenants?
Are they alternatively employable individuals?


You are making so many assumptions that one really has to question the basis of your question.
And also question your own financial ability to buy a home, before you get too excited about someone losing their's.

In the areas of west windsor plainsboro princeton - the market is fast approaching stability- homes are selling & contracts are being written- the ones not making it to closing, belong to those buyers coming in with lower down payments or with some reason - for being denied financing.

Demographics play a role in stable home owership- and those areas where most homeowners bought without exotic loans or the 0% downs or the variable ARM's - and those with the skills & education to be professionally employable - are doing fine compared to other regions with a majority of the opposite.

All that said, where does your self- evaluation come into the picture?
Do you know what you can afford.?.......what your eligibility will be , with stricter mortgage standards becoming regulated?
My honest advice:-
Timing this market is a tricky thing esp without a plan- if you're still sitting on the sidelines, you don't have one.
So if you do want to step in, get your own gameplan. Don't wait to try & borrow someone else's. If it does not fit, you'll remain on the sidelines.
Web Reference: http://www.SoldByShalu.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Oct 26, 2008
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