Phuong Ariel…, Both Buyer and Seller in 92843

Is this another housing bubble? There's a sudden huge spike in prices from 300k to 600k in early 2013

Asked by Phuong Arielle Nguyen, 92843 Sun Mar 24, 2013

This question was asked from http://www.trulia.com/property/3104231779-11251-Fostoria-St-…

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19
Kawain Payne, Realtor, Notary’s answer
The surge is surely being fueled by FLIPS

investors are having a field day. They were able to snap up properties that were distressed, rehab them (very nicely I may add) and then list them as standard sales and sale them at today's higher prices.

No one can say what will happen next. We can only try and adjust ourselves and prepare our clients to deal with current conditions, as they can change right before our eyes:)

Kawain Payne, Realtor
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
Hi Phuong,

To confirm what I answered you previously about what I believe in: "there is no bubble yet", today I saw this article on Wall Street Journal by Nick Timiraos with title "Trulia: Why There’s No Home-Price Bubble" and he went on saying "The sharp upturn in the housing market over the past year has more economists and housing pundits worried about a housing bubble. But a new report from the real-estate website Trulia has a different message: chill out, there’s no bubble right now."

Also, in this article, "“Today’s price gains are actually still a rebound, not a bubble,” writes Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia."

I 100% agree with Trulia!!! They have smart and common-sense economists here!

Please read the entire article here: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/05/14/trulia-why-ther…
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu May 16, 2013
Hi Phuong,

I don't think there is a bubble any time soon :).

The real estate market turned its course since March of last year (2012), and though the prices have gone up quite a bit (around 30% or so) in local markets such as Orange County, there is more room to grow because house prices are still at a 20% to 30% lower than when it was at the top of the market. It took 6 years for the market to go back up since the bubble starting at the end of 2006, so it will take a few more years to to hit that top of the market again.

BTW, where are the houses that have prices from 300k and went up to 600k just within this year?

Dana Nguyen
Real Estate & Mortgage Broker
Dalihan Realty & Financial
949-544-3554
1 vote Thank Flag Link Wed May 8, 2013
Trulia ia the interested party in selling.

However, bubble is on.

Carbon Canyon listings are now 30 percet over the bubble price, that is between 2002-8.

Yet, the economy is stagnant, the pay for all but public employees and corporate management is down ans inflation hit all daily goods from food to gas.

Ugh, maybe it has omething with the EU raiding the offices of Shell, PNP and Saatoit-the Norvwegian oil giant- for fixing the oil prices since 2002.

And that is even though gas prices are steadily going down in EU since last year.

So, if you are telling met hat attempt to sell a house on Carbon Canyon Rod for 550 000 that last sold for 525 000 in 2006 is not a bubble- it is now run down, or that listing of a house sold for 210 000 on Hay last sold in 2004 for 210 000 for 364 000 that you live on another planet.

Possibly personal profit planet.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri May 17, 2013
Wow. So when a house on East Valencia, Fullerton an area defined by the Chief of Police in Fullerton as "gang entreched" that was REO for 90, 000 by the bank is peddled by the same bank for six times the loan price- over 460, 000 despite the comps being some 400,000 less that is supply and demand?

As off , we the banks hold it all and make the supply and demand what we want it to be?

That is what you call free market?

Well, that is what I call speculation on bubble by few whoa atrangling the market after they bought themselves good army of politicians and helpers in rela estate.

No wonder so many in goverment speculate on real estate and hedge funds.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 13, 2013
We were accurately able to prophasize that the BOTTOM of the Market was reached in December.
We told you that in February.
We will be equally ardoit for this next bubble.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 8, 2013
To answer that question, we have to first define a bubble and see if the current housing market conditions meet that definition. Supply and demand help set market prices, but does not answer anything about bubble conditions. Easy lending practices certainly helped to fuel the last bubble, but that in itself is not a root cause.

In a sense, as long as we have an operating economy, whether it's totally free or not, we will constantly have bubbles. In housing, we've been riding a very long-term bubble for the past 60-70 years. It's been supported the whole time by government stimulus. When the stimulus dropped just a bit, as we saw in 2008-2009, the housing market corrected sharply.

Today, we're still riding that large bubble. With all the financial distortions from our central banks, a disproportionate amount of investment capital is being allocated in housing, the very definition of a bubble. So, we're inflating the bubble again, leading home prices to increase far faster than the underlying income and the imputed value.

As for when it'll burst this time, watch the policy actions of central banks around the world. Based on what they've collectively indicated, we're in for another 2-3 year climb.
Web Reference: http://www.archershomes.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 8, 2013
Ingrid, there are few standard sales, mostly is REO parading as standard either because the banks sells it through its own agent, or it was re-sold to another agent who sells it.
I have not see a real standard sale for a long time, except for land.

The more I read these real estate agent, the more I think we do not need them.

All they do is give you "access" to listing book, you need to find th e property, they make an appointment and pass on paperwork if you pay what is asked.

A lawyer will do paperwork for few hundreds and sellers already have agents- who do little for them- because that;s the way to get MLS.

Maybe straight sale is better for us who want to sell -buy- we can just use the web. And save .
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Mar 31, 2013
Why are talking about supply and demand when it is manipulated by the same banks that caused the bubble?

There is 6 million houses held by banks off the market in California, slowly falling apart.

Banks do not renovate the properties, they just look at the loan of their REO add 20% and put it up for sale, sometimes for higher prices than during the bubble. If that does not work in 60 days they go down but want cash.
"Investors" speculators, money launderers and other banks pass such REO from one another hiking the price.

Where is the supply and demand?
It is pure manipulation by banks we bailed out and let to get "too big too fail", by the way interest might go up.

It is just the same as gas prices- crude goes down now for over a month. Prices of gas are falling in Europe as well. In California they go up- we have 5 big oil companies and they skin us.

Why not talk about this so we can change it?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Mar 31, 2013
I'm doubting it's a bubble for a couple of reasons:

1. The bubble that popped in late 2007/early 2008 was driven by insanely easy lending policies. For going on 6 years now, the lending has been extremely tight and very solid. There is little chance all the new crop of loans being made will go into foreclosure.

2. True, interest rates are incredibly low that is helping drive prices. But the Fed isn't likely to let rates go up much until unemployment is way down. And if there is another recession the Fed can always ratchet rates down.

I think prices overcorrected towards the down side in 2009-2012. Now they are just coming back up to normal. If they go past normal towards 2006 prices, it might be getting bubbly again. But we are not there yet.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 26, 2013
It all comes back to the basic supply and demand. In down market, people would wonder if it has reached to bottom. In up market, we are afraid of bubble.

The real estate market often takes more time (few years) to complete its swing. In my opinion, recent price increases are just normal adjustment or back swing from its previous depressed state. The job market will be more likely the main support line for further increases in real estate. I am not an economist, but I think if the job market keeps improving slightly, then real estate may have its run of 2-3% in the next few years.

Regards,

David Pham
National Brokers
714-530-3331
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 26, 2013
Supply and demand. However more inventory seems to be appearing as sellers see the opportunity to sell at a higher price. More importantly, the sellers I am seeing more and more of are LLCs and other entities. These are investors that most likely back door-ed their way into cheap deals and are now reaping the benefits.
This is a very interesting time in the market.

Steve Alford
Orange County Real Estate Group
http://www.realestateoflagunabeach.com
888-863-7480
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
Good Question. It's a Seller's Market for sure. The low inventory issue has driven up prices. It's difficult to tell if this trend will continue. I'm starting to see more homes come on to the market which may help bring some balance to the rising prices. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out with the summer approaching.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
It's whatever the market will bear. Obviously the market is not bearing that price too well.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
Just because a certain asking price has been set by a home owner, does not mean that that is the exact value of the home, and I am not sure where your numbers of 300 and 600 K even come from, are you a Realtor then you should know, if you are not, then you should probably connect with an experienced local Realtor to have him or her compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges, i.e. same construction, same size of home, similar lot size, good location and curb appeal etc. etc. and only then can you make an educated decision on the value of a property compared to others recently sold....

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0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
With interest rates being so low it's practically free money. It's spring as well which is the busiest time of year. Supply and demand is way off because of low inventory. Prices are not going down any time soon.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
The asking price on this home is about $150,000-$200,000 over market value. You need to track sold prices instead of asking price when watching market trends.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Mar 25, 2013
When she writes "regular sale! she mean people who bough fopr certain price and took enormous loan on it and now, while the bank is breathing down on their neck, are trying to sell for the price of the house and the loan that went anywhere but the house.

Or the speculator who added between 50 and 100% to price for 5 000 of paint and carpet.
There is no fre money. The price raisies taxes and insurance, it has to be repaid and it adds tens of thouseands over the year.

But most importantly bubble is a price that does not reflect value, in real terms, ruins for sale are still ruins, and available income. We are off. During the 2004-8 prices went up as much as 300%, going down even 100% is not being real.

Think of buying a car for 10 000 and finding someone who lends you 20 000 - the 10 000 is not worth 30 000, you just have lare debt with a collateral and your pay to hold it.
Flag Fri May 17, 2013
When she writes "regular sale! she mean people who bough fopr certain price and took enormous loan on it and now, while the bank is breathing down on their neck, are trying to sell for the price of the house and the loan that went anywhere but the house.

Or the speculator who added between 50 and 100% to price for 5 000 of paint and carpet.
There is no fre money. The price raisies taxes and insurance, it has to be repaid and it adds tens of thouseands over the year.

But most importantly bubble is a price that does not reflect value, in real terms, ruins for sale are still ruins, and available income. We are off. During the 2004-8 prices went up as much as 300%, going down even 100% is not being real.

Think of buying a car for 10 000 and finding someone who lends you 20 000 - the 10 000 is not worth 30 000, you just have lare debt with a collateral and your pay to hold it.
Flag Fri May 17, 2013
Yes prices have been going up since end of last year The is not much on the market as there isn't much bank owned properties only about 7% are bank owned, - short sales re about 13% and the rest regular sales 80%
There are first time buyers, investors who can't buy find any homes at auction, people with money in CD's which aren't making much money, and people who want to sell and either downsize or upgrade to a bigger home
So prices are going up and will while interest rates are low. In the next year or so the market will settle with interest rates going up
This is the time to buy and sell

How can I help you get into a home ?


Ingrid Ski Realtor
949-874-0432
OCAreaHomes@gmail.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Mar 24, 2013
Hi Phuong,

Home prices have been steadily going up over the past several months and accelerating recently due to all of the competition on the market. The low interest rates are bringing more buyers to the market, while the low inventory is bringing prices up. Also, keep in mind that just because a home is listed for a certain price, it doesn't mean it will sell for that price. The home you asked this question from has been on the market for over 3 months. A well priced home in today's market will get multiple offers within a couple of weeks or days.

If you'd like to discuss the current market in OC and some possible options for you, please get in touch.

Best Regards,

Joe Van Fossen
Keller Williams Realty
joe.vanfossen@gmail.com
(714)584-7154
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Mar 24, 2013
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