I realize the original question was from Aug 4th 2008. My reply is more for the answer by Chris on May 8th 09.
I'm an agent in the Rancho Sahuarita area and I pull 81 sold re-sale homes from Nov 1st 08 to May 1st 09. New homes also sold 511 units in 2008 making Rancho Sahuarita the 5th Best Selling Master Plan in the Nation according to renown real estate consulting firm Robert Charles Lesser (released May 09).
It is true however that we are considered to be in a "declining" market and the per sf prices are hovering in the $90's. The great prices coupled with the ammenities (lake, water park, multi million dollar club house) and the outdoor programing makes this a very attractive place for young families. There is a lot of activity currently in the area.

p.s. Bring your buyers with confidence Chris.

Hi there Curious,
The market in Southern AZ has gone through a big downfall in the past few years. It is very common and normal for values to have come down sunstancially in the Sahuarita area. Rancho Sahuarita has only had 7 resale homes close sale since November 1st, 2008. This is a pretty slow market, which means it's a good time to get a great deal there. Average price per square foot on these sold "comps" was $101.19 per SqFt. Your agent should be able to give you a market analysis of the area and advise you of the home's value. How many homes have you looked at in Rancho Sahuarita, what were their list prices and how did they compare to the one you want to offer on? You can get a very good idea of the home's value by looking at lots of homes and comparing them. Also, if you are worried about being upside down from the start, you really need to establish long term motivation. Do you plan on living in and owning this home for 5-10 years? If so, you're probably okay. Now, if you're job is unstable and there is a chance you may have to relocate in the next few years, it may not be the best decision for you to invest in real estate. The home may very well come down in value some more while we wait for the market to stabilize. This may very well take a few more years. But the worst is past us. If you had purchased a few years ago in a high market, then you would probably be in trouble now. Find an agent who can be honest with you about your personal situation and the REAL market. Good luck to you...go get a great buy!

I am a real estate appraiser and must be pretty detailed in regards to current market condition. I can tell you that Rancho Sahuarita is definately a "declining market" - in other words, sales prices have dropped over the last 1-2 years, and now is a great time to find super deals in that community!! Assessed value is not market value, however you can compare assessed values on different properties and their relation to asking or sales price.

You have to keep in mind that the assessor's value is not the same as market value, and is used mostly as a gauge for assessing county taxes.

What you can take away from it, however, is relational value. The downward trend you see is a direct reflection of the recent housing slump we've experienced and is the same across the board here in Tucson/Sahuarita. So yes, it's probably normal.

How does the home look when looking at other comparable properties? If you have a Realtor they should be able to provide all this information for you quickly and easily, and perhaps provide more insight into the reasoning behind the recent price trends. Rancho Sahuarita is a great area and there are definitely a lot of deals to be had, even from new builds.