Don't waste your time asking Realtors about price trends or if it is a good time to buy. It was Realtors who were spouting off two years ago that "it was a great time to buy" and "prices never go down." We all know how foolish that advice was. According to Realtors, every day during the past 100 years was a great time to buy OR sell real estate -- and remarkably the same will hold true for the next 100 years.

Realtors may be knowledgeable on current and past prices for their area, but they are NOT experts on future price trends. Realtors are NOT economists and very few have any business or economic training to speak of. They are SALESPEOPLE. The reality is that they only get a commission if you buy, so they have an incentive to be less then accurate as to their assessments. The few competent Realtors with integrity would admit that prices are going down and most buyers could save money by simply waiting for the bubble to further deflate.

If you can afford a home with a large down payment and conventional financing and don't care about prices dropping further, consider the purchase. But DON’T purchase with the expectation of future price gains. This was a huge bubble that needs to finish deflating. If history is any guide, prices will not rebound quickly when the bottom is finally reached.

Best of Luck,
NewportFiji

Thu May 8 2008, 12:45

Hi Jeff: Folsom, like all other communities in Sacramento County, has experienced a decline in the median value in the past two to three years. You need to ask yourself how long you plan to stay in your new home. And that answer needs to be at least 3 years and preferably longer, because I think that the prices will continue to decline for at least the short term since all of the bank owned homes and soon to be bank owned homes have not yet been sold. The new home builders are very near the end of their supply, so that will make the demand for existing homes even greater in the near future.

If you're going to be in your home for at least three years, then why not buy now when the demand for the home is less so that you may not be in a multiple offer situation when purchasing. Once the market starts to turn back to a Seller's market, we get back into the multiple offer and higher than list offer price situation. I wouldn't want to be a buyer in that market, would you.? Plus, it's getting near summer and more homes should be coming on the market soon, so your choices will be greater.

I have some great market tracking information on my website that I could send you via e-mail.

Erin Phillips
Keller Williams Realty
Roseville
916-580-2227

Thu May 8 2008, 12:39

Hi Jeff,

Folsom has been holding its value fairly well but like anything nobody has a crystal ball and can predict excatly what will happen in the future. Folsom has and will continue to be a strong community so that should allow home values to remain decent. The bigger thing to remember is that no matter how the market is fluctuating homeowners need to make smart choices with the equity in their homes. Alot of the drama that has been created with the current market comes from homeowners that have treated their homes like banks by pulling out all the equity and purchasing toys rather than investing the money into areas where they could make money or putting it back into the home. In addition, many banks were loaning to individuals that maybe were not responsible enough to take on owning a home. It sounds to me like you are trying to make some smart decisions by saving up your 20%.

Bottom line is this, if you want to buy a home then you should take the steps that are necessary to achieve that goal. Real Estate is a valuable asset no matter what market we are in. If you make wise choices and purchases it will pay off for you in the long run. As far as Folsom goes, it is a great community and I believe will continue to be one no matter what the market does.

I would be happy to talk about this with you further and more direct so please do not hesitate to contact me at either my phone number or email below.

Good luck!

Jillian Anderson
Keller Williams Realty
(916) 241-8039
jilliananderson@kw.com

Thu May 8 2008, 12:08

Hi Jeff,

You are correct in your thinking about Folsom being a stronger market than the rest of Sacramento. There are a few pocket neighborhoods in Sacramento that are doing very well, but Folsom is the strongest within the suburbs. The market decline in Folsom is down 9% from March '07 to March '08. Compare that to 27.5% for Sacramento County. If you would like the full chart of the tri county statistics, please let me know and I'll send it to you via email.

There are currently an average of 265 single family homes on the market in Folsom (not including condos') and last year during this time, the daily average was closer to 300. This is normally the time of year when many home sellers place their homes for sale, during what we call the Spring rush. That has yet to happen and the Realtors in my office don't know why we haven't had the inventory increase.

As for the future of Folsom and the housing market, my opinion is that things will pick up within the next year or two based on the amount of new jobs that will be added by the addition of Kaiser hospital, the new outdoor plaza-style mall, the upcoming hotels and restaurants, and the completion of the new Folsom Dam Bridge. The school system is exceptional, with an average API test score over 800 and the recreation with nature preserves, bike/walking trails and Folsom Lake are among the main reasons people want to live in Folsom.

I think you are wise to save money to have a 20% down payment and will be in a great position when it comes time to get a home loan.

Good luck with your home search!

Carie Averill-Branch

Thu May 8 2008, 12:02