jlw1949cal, Home Buyer in Kelseyville, CA

How much will the housing market decline in 2013 ? 2014 ?

Asked by jlw1949cal, Kelseyville, CA Sun May 27, 2012

I am trying to figure what percent below the asking price of $124,000 to offer as my bid. I have been pre-approved for $100,000. I think the bank would go as high as $112,000

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jlw1949cal:

Your Realtor® should be helping you answer what offer price is appropriate in the CURRENT MARKET after performing a Comparative Market Analysis.

While no one individual can predict the future, I personally believe we're not out of the woods as it pertains to market declines in the US. The fact is it's really hard to have a sustainable economic recovery without a jobs recovery!

Having said this, each defined area has its own economic environment; therefore, you should stay aware of what's happening on the National level; however, knowing what's happening in your local area is probably where most of your attention should be placed.

For example, using the 95451 zip code area as a defined area we find that since 1/1/12 to date there have been 18 new listings placed on the MLS with 20 properties being sold in the 95451 zip code area as of this post - most would say this is a "balanced" supply/demand market environment.

Are you shooting yourself in the foot assuming you can discount off the Listing price?


Do you have your own Realtor®?
If not, you are in a Dual Agency and you should know what you are giving up; see:

"Dual Agency: Why should I NOT use the listing Agent to buy a house?"
http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/Why_should_I_NOT_us…

-Steve
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun May 27, 2012
Once again I must chime in with Steve. I just heard one so called expert/pundent say on CNBC just this past week that we could be looking at as much as another 20% decline which really surprised me. However, I've also heard there's another 5.5 million foreclosures in the "SHADOW" that are still being held in absence awaiting release.

It's anybody's guess at this point. That stated, as any RE professional knows RE is very local and what's happening in one part of the Country, State, County, City may be the antitheses of what's happening in the other.

It's definitely a Mad Hatters ride at best and sometimes I wonder if the so called experts even have a clue. Frankly, I get crazy in the head watching and listening to all these expert/pundents arguing back and forth about their so called expertise and experience. Personally I'm short on RE and long on Apple. LOL!!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 27, 2012
Hello jlw949cal,
All the economists are predicting growth in the real estate market this year and into 2013 and 2014. Of course, this must take into account if unemployment and the world economy should falter as this would indeed change that outlook.

I suggest that you have your agent discuss the sales of similar homes in the neighborhood with you for comparison so then you can determine what you should bid on the property.

Good luck to you!

Laura Feghali
Prudential Connecticut Realty
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 27, 2012
In Santa Clarita there is daily bidding wars and prices seem to be going up. I would talk to a local Realtor about your market.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 27, 2012
No one knows the answer to this question, nor is there any rule of thumb of offer price minus x% is the right number. There are a lot of variables that go with each property, which is why a great agent/broker can be so critical in getting the right price and/or avoiding bad/overpriced properties.

Best Regards,

Lance King/Owner-Managing Broker
lance@fixedrateproperties.com
415.722.5549
DRE# 01384425
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 27, 2012
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