Alex Meguerd…, Real Estate Pro in Valencia, CA

How long do you think these market conditions will last? (Low inventory, multiple offers,appraisal issues, etc.)

Asked by Alex Meguerditchian, Valencia, CA Thu Apr 18, 2013

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Each Market will be a little bit different and the upstate NY market is being influenced by added growth in tech companies in the local area. The capitol District is on an upswing for many years to come.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 17, 2013
Keep your eye on the 'home start' numbers. When buillder's start cutting lumber, home owners will feel more confident sellling even though they missed the peak.
Here in Pinellas County FL, commerical construction has been clearly on the increase and home starts are appearing all over with custom builders.
Home insurance, tax exemptions, flood insurance, obama bill, all have the potential to knock a giant pool of shelter seeker buyers out of the game entirely. THAT is not the balanceing we what to see.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Oct 17, 2013
Many areas have plateaued already. Real estate is local, but the trend is for a normalization over the next several years, according to CAR's recent forecast at the Expo in Long Beach..
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Oct 16, 2013
Its turning into a more regular already. Inventory is climbing and sale are falling off. I have noticed a few things in my 10 years of selling real estate. One thing I have noticed is the market don't change over a period of months, they change in weeks.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Oct 16, 2013
Well the appraisal issues should go away when the comps catch up to the purchase prices, we should be soon. However builders are not creating hardly any subdivisions (and they didn't for 5-6 years previous) so inventory many remain low.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 14, 2013
Market conditions have many variables. Right now interest rates are still at historic lows and inventory levels still remain low. As long as this trend continues we will continue to see multiple offers especially with homes that are perceived by buyers to be value priced.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Oct 14, 2013
The interesting thing is I have not heard one good explanation for where the inventory is going to come from. And I have heard a lot of really smart people say the flat out just don't know. It's not going to come from foreclosures, it takes a long time to build new subdivisions, and normal sellers that used to be underwater putting their homes on the market....well if they do those are going to be some expensive homes. So I honestly do not know where this ends.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 18, 2013
Alex, this is a pattern that has repeated itself after each recession and housing collapse. There will continue to be a housing, in my opinion throughout the year and into next Spring. More and more homes will be listed at higher and higher prices until the Government decides to slow things down. Their only tool is controlling the interest rates. This is actually the best time to buy a home. Why, you ask. The answer is because we can't buy a home yesterday. Home prices are rising and affordability is still at an incredibly great level. Waiting will only help those owning a home that will sell without buying another home. Many are unable to compete due to lack of cash reserves. If you have the money buy now as waiting will be costly.

Your Friend & Realtor,
Tony Lewis * RE/MAX of Valencia Cell - 661-510-7975
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 18, 2013
While no one can predict conditions like inventory, the answer to your broader question is that we are and will be in an appreciating market for the next 2-3 years, according to the history of real estate cycles in Southern California.

The multiple offers and appraisal issues are effects of the low inventory and high demand, which is driving pricing up.

I've heard the word "bubble" thrown around, and this creates a negative impression of the market similar to the early 2000's. Then we had an artificial market bubble due to poor lending standards creating a false demand.

What we have today is simply a legitimate appreciating market due to low prices, low interest rates, low inventory, high rents, and high demand. As this supply vs. demand ratio decreases, appreciation will slow.

The most telling real estate statistic is the Absorption Rate, also known as "Month's Inventory"... in the area where I do 70% of my business- Santa Clarita & Valencia- we are at 49 days inventory (35 for Valencia). A seller's market is anything below 120 days. This time last year we were at 104 and 92 days, respectively.

*This is the information your agent needs to know in order to strip away the "mystery" of the market and help you make a wise real estate decision based on your personal circumstances...

Speaking on behalf of all my Professional colleagues: ASK THESE QUESTIONS BEFORE YOU WORK WITH AN AGENT. :)

Feel free to contact me anytime if you have any questions/needs.

Dan Andrizzi, REALTOR
Keller Williams VIP Properties
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 18, 2013
This is exactly the same condition of the market as it was back in 2002 through 2006. It'll be like this for at least next 2 years.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 18, 2013
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