I worry more about the effect on the adjustables that folks already have. Payment reset shock has been fuelling loan defaults, but it has been moderated somewhat by the lower interest rates. Throw those low rates out, and you’re looking at more borrowers handing in the keys.

On May 29th I looked in the paper and saw 6.1% on the 30yr Fixed.

the economy in Vegas is not recession proof and projects with Dubai World are untested. With more and more casinos strips coming online worldwide ( Melco Crown Entertainment in Macau) and other simular places like (Las Vegas Sands in Singapore) and (Genting Gaming in Russia) Vegas is looking at no advantage for international travelers in the future. In fact, Macau makes more than Las Vegas in terms of revenue. See article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16785411/ plus throw in the fact that California and other states now have Mega Casinos just like Vegas and the the Vegas economy will have to take a hit.

Investor are also second guessing the MGM as the stock has dropped from over 100 to 46 dollars as of May 08.

Thu May 29 2008, 10:57

Hello C Mcrots,

The economy has slowed in Las Vegas, however I believe it is currently on the right track . Have you ever heard of Dubai World? Below is an excerpt of Dubai Worlds transaction on the City Center Project in Las Vegas. Do you think Dubai World would just throw up 5 BILLION Dollars for the sake of spending money? Maybe the Economy in Las Vegas is not as bad as most people think.

Review Journal.com
MGM Mirage's $5.1 billion deal to sell half of its CityCenter development and a nearly 10 percent stake in the casino operator to Dubai World, a holding company for the Persian Gulf state, is more than just another joint venture investment.

Company Chairman Terry Lanni believes the transaction, announced early Wednesday, may be the single-most significant event in MGM Mirage's history, eclipsing in importance the $6.4 billion buyout of Mirage Resorts in 2000 and the $7.9 billion purchase of Mandalay Resort Group in 2005.

Lanni said the transaction, in which Dubai World will invest $2.7 billion into CityCenter and $2.4 billion to acquire more than 28 million shares of MGM Mirage stock, brings the company a long-term partner with an interest in enhancing the company.

The deal also gives MGM Mirage access to the relatively untapped market of Dubai, which attracts wealthy visitors from Russia, India and Middle Eastern countries. Lanni said Dubai World would help bring those customers to MGM Mirage resorts on the Strip.

Tue May 13 2008, 15:58

There's a Newsweek article that's not as optimistic as the previous posters called, "Down on Its Luck: Las Vegas used to be a recession-proof oasis. Not anymore." http://www.newsweek.com/id/135638

Quotes from the article:
"According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), Las Vegas has seen gambling revenues fall only once since 1970: in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks they dropped 1 percent in 2002 from 2001. So far this year they've fallen 4 percent, the number of conventions held has dropped 10.4 percent, and average daily room rates were off 3.8 percent in the first two months of 2008, according to the most recent data available."

"Nearly 7 percent fewer cars crossed the Nevada-California border along Interstate 15 through February..."

"...while construction continues on the half-built $3 billion Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino next to the Bellagio, the project may be in jeopardy after developer Bruce Eichner's company defaulted on a $760 million loan from Deutsche Bank."

Wed May 7 2008, 07:48

Hi C Mcrots,

The UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research outlook for Las Vegas 2008 was that it expected the 1st half of the year to show modest growth. For Feb the economic indicators showed a .17% gain over the previous month and a .37% gain from the previous year, while the overall US economic indicators have declined slightly for the past 5 months.

The 2nd half of the year will have 3 new resort properties opening as John mentions. This is a trend that will continue through 2012, with an estimated 42,000 rooms and the resulting jobs. In addition to that the Center is expecting growth in other business sectors, from manufacturing to medical, that includes among them a new VA medical center.

Since 1994 the center has been pretty accurate in it's overall economic forecasts and numbers, to within 1% - 3% of their projections. I guess we'll have to wait and see if they can keep that streak going.

Sat Mar 22 2008, 01:02

Better than most cities. We still have good job growth and a several new resorts/casinos opening up soon and for the next few years. Each hotel room available yields many new jobs. I think Las Vegas is doing great!

Fri Mar 21 2008, 20:08