R Lee, Home Seller in Dublin, CA

How is the Mission Bay condo market? Has the area been affected by

Asked by R Lee, Dublin, CA Tue Oct 23, 2007

weakness in demand or a has there been much of a correction?

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Brandon Rimes, P.A., C.N.E.’s answer
I am not sure about that market but the FL market in general is seeing an influx of cash investors and buyers in the lower 80-150K end market... There is a percieved bottom market that allows investors and OOC home buyers to feel confident in thier decision to buy NOW!

Brandon@brandonrimes.com 813-917-1894
Web Reference: http://www.brandonrimes.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jun 24, 2011
Awww shucks - gee thanks Antony!

Well - so to answer that question let's just say that Mission Bay is not much different that other nearby neighborhoods that are predominantly condos such as the South of Market neighborhoods like Rincon Hill, South Beach, South Financial District and parts of Potrero Hill. Buyers looking in Mission Bay tend to look in these other areas as well so as Mission Bay goes so does the rest of the "South of Market" neighborhoods.

Also, Mission Bay is a very small market with only 6 major buildings that make up probably 99% of the inventory - 3 of them recently built and now entering resales: The Beacon (595 units), 255 Berry (approx 100 units). The rest of the buildings are newly finished or underconstruction but PRE-selling - 235 Berry (99 units), Park Terrace (110 units), Arterra (268 condos) and Radiance (98 condos). A handful of other buildings make up the rest: Glassworks, 310 Townsend (also new and struggling in sales), 2 smaller loft buildings on Townsend and that's really it.

Now - the answer - the market down here is definitely WEAKER than it was in the past several years but I do not know if I would call it WEAK. For example, several new projects are reporting in-my-opinion very strong sales such as the unfinished Radiance (over 50% in contract) and unfinished Arterra (over 40% in contract). I think these numbers are not bad considering that people are buying off of floor plans (i.e. presales!). Park Terrace is also making good progress in their sales and 235 Berry as well (down to 16 condos). Park Terrace and 235 Berry sold out of many of their "good units" (units on high floors, facing the water, large outdoor spaces, facing courtyard, and not too pricey) and now have a majority of "unattractive" units for some reason or another .... add to that the fact that we are getting to the end of the year -- find an agent to help you get some good bargains as they look to clear out their inventory!!!... Of the other large Mission Bay buildings, The Beacon - the granddaddy of them all -- has 27 active as of 11/1/07 which I think is a record for this building of 2 years old... with slllooowww sales... But the Beacon makes up about 1/3rd of the Mission Bay market.

So what am I trying to say? I think in general, there is some supply that needs to be absorbed - but it also just depends on which product you are talking about... Jr 1BR or 1BR? weak. The Beacon and Arterra has almost 100% of the Jr 1BR and 1BR market and there are a lot of them on right now with few selling. The Beacon in particular is a hard sell to 1BR buyers (or any buyer) because of what is perceived as high HOA dues plus leased parking (double ouch).

2BR's? Strong - especially if it's priced in the mid 700's to low 800's range... why? Because there are none of these 2BR's to be found! They sell quickly...

How about the 900's to 1M range? Depends... some sell well and some don't. I've seen a mixed market there... Water-view units? Gone. As long as they are not exhorbitantly priced they sell very quickly. Most of the water-view or city-view units are sold....same goes for 235 Berry, Arterra, and Park Terrace (but there are some expensive ones available still).

I have seen weakness in some product types but strengths in others.
Web Reference: http://www.markchoey.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Nov 1, 2007

I believe you'd be better served by buying in the Mission. Mission Bay is being over built and we are starting to see the effects of that. I know of short sales going on at the Metroploitan and at the Beacon. Doubtless, they are also occuring elsewhere in the neighborhood.

Good Luck,

Charlie Mader
Vanguard Properties
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Oct 31, 2007
Hi there, the condo market in Mission Bay has definitely been affected lately. There have been around 2000 units built in Mission Bay, with a total of 6000 slated to be built, so roughly 4000 more to go. There is good news however - I feel that there is pent-up demand as buyers are waiting to see if there's even more weakiness in the market. As a result, I've seen rents increase in Mission Bay. The increase in rents may also be from the fact that people that used to purchase with little money down can no longer do so as the mortgage market has tightened up. Happy to discuss more with you anytime. I take a quantitative approach to real esate (I received an MBA from Stanford). More about me at http://www.RonAbta.com
Web Reference: http://www.RonAbta.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Oct 30, 2007
Just noticed you asked this question a month ago as well. And received two great answers from agents who seem to know the specific market well. And now you have a third contact. Hopefully you will take the opportunity and build relationships with each of them, who can each give you different insights AND keep you up to date. Then you'll have a good sense of who you might like best to work with when you finally feel the time is right to sell you property.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Oct 27, 2007
My good friend, Mark Choey specializes in properties in SOMA, South Beach, and Mission Bay. And especially condos. He told me that the market in those areas are still strong despite the national weakness. Especially premium properties, well staged, are getting multiple offers. He can provide so much more specifics and comps (he's closed on a number of transactions this month). His contact info is at:
He's a great guy, and I highly recommend him.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Oct 27, 2007
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