Well - so to answer that question let's just say that Mission Bay is not much different that other nearby neighborhoods that are predominantly condos such as the South of Market neighborhoods like Rincon Hill, South Beach, South Financial District and parts of Potrero Hill. Buyers looking in Mission Bay tend to look in these other areas as well so as Mission Bay goes so does the rest of the "South of Market" neighborhoods.
Also, Mission Bay is a very small market with only 6 major buildings that make up probably 99% of the inventory - 3 of them recently built and now entering resales: The Beacon (595 units), 255 Berry (approx 100 units). The rest of the buildings are newly finished or underconstruction but PRE-selling - 235 Berry (99 units), Park Terrace (110 units), Arterra (268 condos) and Radiance (98 condos). A handful of other buildings make up the rest: Glassworks, 310 Townsend (also new and struggling in sales), 2 smaller loft buildings on Townsend and that's really it.
Now - the answer - the market down here is definitely WEAKER than it was in the past several years but I do not know if I would call it WEAK. For example, several new projects are reporting in-my-opinion very strong sales such as the unfinished Radiance (over 50% in contract) and unfinished Arterra (over 40% in contract). I think these numbers are not bad considering that people are buying off of floor plans (i.e. presales!). Park Terrace is also making good progress in their sales and 235 Berry as well (down to 16 condos). Park Terrace and 235 Berry sold out of many of their "good units" (units on high floors, facing the water, large outdoor spaces, facing courtyard, and not too pricey) and now have a majority of "unattractive" units for some reason or another .... add to that the fact that we are getting to the end of the year -- find an agent to help you get some good bargains as they look to clear out their inventory!!!... Of the other large Mission Bay buildings, The Beacon - the granddaddy of them all -- has 27 active as of 11/1/07 which I think is a record for this building of 2 years old... with slllooowww sales... But the Beacon makes up about 1/3rd of the Mission Bay market.
So what am I trying to say? I think in general, there is some supply that needs to be absorbed - but it also just depends on which product you are talking about... Jr 1BR or 1BR? weak. The Beacon and Arterra has almost 100% of the Jr 1BR and 1BR market and there are a lot of them on right now with few selling. The Beacon in particular is a hard sell to 1BR buyers (or any buyer) because of what is perceived as high HOA dues plus leased parking (double ouch).
2BR's? Strong - especially if it's priced in the mid 700's to low 800's range... why? Because there are none of these 2BR's to be found! They sell quickly...
How about the 900's to 1M range? Depends... some sell well and some don't. I've seen a mixed market there... Water-view units? Gone. As long as they are not exhorbitantly priced they sell very quickly. Most of the water-view or city-view units are sold....same goes for 235 Berry, Arterra, and Park Terrace (but there are some expensive ones available still).
I have seen weakness in some product types but strengths in others.
I believe you'd be better served by buying in the Mission. Mission Bay is being over built and we are starting to see the effects of that. I know of short sales going on at the Metroploitan and at the Beacon. Doubtless, they are also occuring elsewhere in the neighborhood.
He's a great guy, and I highly recommend him.