Rouriel Noub…, Both Buyer and Seller in San Ramon, CA

Housing Prices to Rise 3-5% This Year: John Paulson

Asked by Rouriel Noubini, San Ramon, CA Mon May 10, 2010

Property bulls are coming back.

Help the community by answering this question:


There are currently too many moving parts to make an accurate assessment: a change in any single factor will skew everything. The wildcard could very well be the EU – and it’s too soon to tell what the fallout will really be from that mess.

For what it’s worth (and that’s not a lot, at the moment), here is MY opinion:…
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sun May 16, 2010
I don't see any bloated inventory of homes on the market, I.SanRamon. Certainly not in San Ramon.

In April, 88 sales were agreed in San ramon for detached single family homes. At the beginning of May, there were only 117 listed for sale. That is less than 1.5 months supply which is generally considered to be an extremely strong sellers' market.

No bloated inventory in San Ramon.

Bernard Gibbons

Bernard Gibbons, DRE License # 01331583
J. Rockcliff Realtors, 15 Railroad Avenue, Danville, CA 94526
Phone (925) 997-1585 -
1 vote Thank Flag Link Fri May 14, 2010
Hi Rouriel,

I wish we had a crystal ball and know the moment prices were going to rise and fall. Unfortunately, our economy is very sensitive and the moment interest rates hike, the prices of housing will fall. I advise my sellers to hold tight if they don't need to sell and my buyers to purchase now while interest rates are historically low.

Please let anyone of us know if you want a comparable marketing analysis on your home and information on purchasing a property.

Suzanne Looker
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
Update 2015! The bulls are back and San Ramon is selling like hot cakes!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 6, 2015
Paulson has no clue. 3 to 5%, I doubt it. Home prices are still on the decline and the banks have tons of inventory they havent even foreclosed on yet. Not to mention all the homes that are going to re default after the loan mods aren't working.

5 years until we come back.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Aug 30, 2010
Here's a brief refresh of my prior analysis:

Here's the current SFR inventory in San Ramon:

Now here's the same search, but excluding short sales:

And here's the search of current MLS foreclosure listings:

Since my last update in late July, San Ramon SFR inventory has gone from 136 properties to 168, a nearly 20% increase in homes for sale. And the number of short sale listings have nearly doubled, rising from 22 to 39., increasing from 16% to 23% of the total San Ramon inventory (39/168= .23). And active foreclosures have more than doubled, from 7 to 16. Between the active short sale (39) and foreclosure listings (16), the number of active, distressed MLS SFR listings in San Ramon has risen from 21% to over 33% (39+16/168 = .33).

In short, since July 21st, San Ramon SFR inventory is up 20% and distressed properties have doubled. No wonder the desperate have taken to mimicking my identity.

If you are looking for a good blend of value, commute distance, and good schools, the Castro Valley is probably a better investment than the Tri Valley area (San Ramon, Dublin, and Pleasanton). If you stick to the CV hills (Five Canyons or Palomeres), you'll get all the benefits of San Ramon, but much better proximity to BART and a much shorter commute to the major job centers. Note that in Five Canyons and Palomeres, the inventory has remained low and prices have held (and even increased), while San Ramon has gone the opposite direction.

Happy hunting.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Aug 30, 2010

I do both. One of my investment group has 2nd position on foreclosure court bidding for S. Bay properties. For Buy-to-hold, 20% down, provided apprisal comes thru and SR-Windemere properties have no problem getting loans.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 21, 2010
Updating since my June 28th post, let the numbers tell where the SR market is going. For the 3/2 SFR market, since my last post:

Inventory has increased from 136 SFR's to 155 (up 14%):

Short sales listings have increased from 22 to 30 (up 35%):

Active foreclosure listings have increased from 7 to 12:

And there are 174 properties that are in some phase of pre-foreclosure:

So, since I posed on June 28th, the number of distressed properties in San Ramon have risen from 189 to 216, a stunning 14.3% increase in less than three weeks. And "normal" inventory has increased at roughly the same rate (up 13.9%).

Worse still, the number of pending homes has increased to 152, indicating that the rate of closure for homes in contract is declining:

Cleary the SR market is continuing to significantly soften, during a time of the year where the market is supposed to be the most active. That does not bode well for what August will look like, once the motivation to close before school starts is gone.

San Ramon is a nice area with great schools, but I would be hesitant to consider entering the market until at least early October, when the post summer September reports come out.

Renting in SR is currently good option, as you have increasing leverage for negotiation on rents and lease terms. Be aggressive in negotiating your lease terms, as many investors are now feeling the pinch of competitive rental prices and decreased values of their investment properties. Good tenants are harder to come by, so even if you are already in a lease, call your landlord and ask for concessions or reduced rent. After all, you can probably move down the street and rent a bigger place for less, so they'll probably give you a break just to keep a good tenant.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jul 21, 2010

Are you buying to hold or buying to flip? If buying to hold, what % down do you put down typically, and do you come out with positive cash flow?

Will Bateson, Broker
Sidewalk Homes
CA$H BACK when you buy
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jul 10, 2010
Yea right! It's usually not a bad time to buy but for sellers there is still a ton of pain left. And buyers, don't think your investment will just appreciate in the next year or two with a buy and hold method. The money made in real estate these days is in finding financing, sweat equity, and pounding the pavement. If you are on a long term horizon there probably never has been a better time to buy. By longer term I mean at least 5 years in most parts of the country.
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 8, 2010
Buying more. Just closed another property this week. Life is good...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
As I showed below

Housing market shudders to think of a double dip
Expiration of tax break may lead to new wave of falling prices
"The tax credit is the big reason home prices have been so buoyant, and sales will drop" with its expiration, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. "You will see a double dip in housing prices."
Distressed homes, typically sold at discounted prices, accounted for 36 percent of first-quarter sales, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.

Now we are seeing the reality of that forecast. Sorry, the link no longer works for that article

Prices hit a false bottom, now they will drop more. If you look at the life cycle of a bubble bursting this is actually normal. Now for more lower prices to come (yippee)
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
As I predicted long ago, now that all the government stimulus programs have expired, the housing market is starting to return to its original correction pattern, which was stalled by all those programs. Today the National Association of Realtors reported that the number of homes going pending in May has fallen to the lowest level on record (see article and link, below).

So what is the story with pending homes in San Ramon? Here they are:

With 149 pending homes, it looks like a hot market, but here's the same search excluding shorts sales:

Wow, 82 homes; nearly 55% of pending sales in San Ramon are short sales. Short sales have a closure rate of less than 50%, meaning that more than half of these pending sales are likely to fall through; the homes will come back on the market with lower prices or end up as the next batch of foreclosures, driving prices down even further. Note the concentration of these pending short sales in Windemere.

So what about the trend reported by NAR? Take a look at how many of the 149 pending homes went into contract before May, as compared to the last 30 days. The vast majority of the pending inventory went into contract before the government stimulus programs expired. The government programs "pulled forward" latent demand, tapping out the supply of buyers after the credits expired. In short, the recent pending rates confirm NAR's announcement; " the housing recovery can't survive without government incentives" and will return to its original correction pattern.

So how far had the market corrected before the government interfered? Here's the graph of median prices for the San Francisco Metropolitan area:

Note that the government stimulus programs stalled the natural housing correction before prices had a chance to returned to inflation adjusted, historical averages. You can see that by the false bottom in 2009 and the stimulus driven mini bubble that has been ongoing since then. Now that the stimulus is gone, the market is going back to its original correction trend, back to baseline.

Running the analysis on the mid high range in outlying suburbs (i.e. San Ramon) shows a "correction potential" of 18 - 25% for that segment (i.e. Windemere), which is 12 - 15% below the false bottom in 2009; if you bought in 2009 as an investor, there's a good chance you'll be significantly underwater in the next 12 months.

Here's the NAR article:

May pending home sales tumble to record low

Pending homes sales tumble in May to lowest level on record after tax credits expire

Thursday July 1, 2010, 10:01 am

NEW YORK (AP) -- The number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase homes dropped in May to the lowest level on record, a sign the housing recovery can't survive without government incentives.

The National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes tumbled 30 percent in May. The index fell to 77.6 in May from 110.9 in April. May's reading was the lowest dating back to 2001.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index would fall to 98.4. The index also was down 15.9 percent from the same month a year earlier.

The index provides an early measurement of sales activity because there is usually a one- to two-month lag between a sales contract and a completed deal.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
2009 was an awsome time with lots of foreclosures and short-sell homes. 2010 is still good. 3-5% per year for the next 15-20 years average is easily achievablble...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
Check out this Brookfield Windemere property,,-san-ramon-,ca_rb/

Sold on 4/27/10 for $1.06M, could have owned this one in the $800K's back in Q2, 2009 and that is a 24.7% appreciation from 2009. Wow a big increase and nice up.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
Great! Now go and get one... but do get in line.....
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jul 2, 2010
Check out this Brookfield Windemere property,,-san-ramon-,ca_rb/

Sold on 4/27/10 for $1.06M, could have owned this one in the $800K's back in Q2, 2009 and that is a 24.7% appreciation from 2009. Numbers never lie.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jul 1, 2010
Let's check the facts about the San Ramon market and let the data speak for itself:

Here's the current SFR inventory in San Ramon:

Now here's the same search, but excluding short sales:

And here's the search of current MLS foreclosure listings:

What are the facts? Since December, San Ramon SFR inventory has gone from a low of just 16 properties to 136, an 850% increase in homes for sale. And there are 22 short sales on the market, indicating that 16% of the San Ramon inventory is selling short (22/136=.16). And there are 7 active foreclosures, including two in Windemere. Between the active shortsales (22) and foreclosure listings (7), a whopping 21% of the active, MLS listed San Ramon SFR inventory consists of distressed properties (29/136 = .21). That's a huge number and indicative of a market struggling under downward pressure.

What about the foreclosure pipeline, which tells us what's coming in the future? Here it is:

There are over 189 properties in San Ramon that are in some stage of foreclosure. If you add in the 22 short sales and the 7 active foreclosure listings, there are 218 distressed properties in San Ramon. Does that fit with expectations and predictions of the market? Absolutely. Here's the Option ARM recast graph, showing the prime/option ARM recast wave starting to peak this summer:

As I've posted before, the majority of SFR homes purchased in San Ramon from 2005 to 2007 were financed with these exotic loans and as the graph shows, the first major recast wave is just starting. Soon these loans will soon be recasting to their fully amortized balances, leaving the owners with mortgage payments that will double on homes that are now worth 30% less than what they paid. Many of these folks will pursue a "strategic default", walking away from the home even though they can afford to pay the mortgage.

The final thing to consider is how many SFR homes are actually pending in San Ramon. If the market is really as "hot" as some folks claim, the number of pending homes should be very high. How many homes are in contract in San Ramon? Here's the search:

What do you think? With all those pending sales, does it look like hot market? LOL.

There's no "spin" in the above information, these are just the facts of the market. As usual, it's easy to debunk the investor hype, misleading posts, and realtor cheer leading that ends up just being wishful thinking and BS sales tactics by unscrupulous folks looking to take advantage of others.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 28, 2010

Tracking actual sales prices vs. Q1/Q2 2009, could be historic low for Windemere. I am a numbers guy.

Another up or down from 2010 in 2011 for Windemere? Could be a toss up for this interesting Windemere market. I see 5-10% appreciation. What about you?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 27, 2010
Winde, why would there be such appreciation?

When interest rates rise by 2% you will lose 23.9% of buying power.

Are higher paying jobs coming to the area? Why would incomes increase drastically?

P.S. real estate prices dropping were what started the recession, not the other way around.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 27, 2010
Another data point from Windemere,

2608 Watervale Way, recorded on 6/25/2010, $1M, was $850K in Q2 of 2009, which is the historic low point at Windemere, a 17.6+% increase.…

I see 2011 up another 5-10% from 2010 level. Will continue to post.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 27, 2010
See this recent sale and chart on 3676 Stonehenge Way, Windemere.…

Sold on 5/1/2010 for $984K, chart shows low was $810-820K in Q1/Q2 2009, 21.5% gain, WOW. Prices will go up and down but this is a great UP from 2009. Demand continues to be strong because of the great schools at Windemere.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 26, 2010
Check out the professional comments from a 30-year pro. People with money should be buying now. Do not wait until economy fully recovers and money depreciates. I remember when a brand new house was $70K back in the 80's.

Ran -

Let me tell you as an experienced Broker of 30 years in this area who is also a resident - that this is the PERFECT TIME to buy a home because there is a VERY HIGH appreciation that will be coming within the next few years to these properties.

The prices went down drastically due to the entire recession , and what happened with the Real Estate Market - that is why it is the right time to buy if you have the money. Do not sit and wait any longer before you buy a home in Blackhawk/Danville/San Ramon.

You WILL REGRET waiting after you see the appreciation of value hit the homes in the next couple of years to come. Do not be surprised when the home values go up a few Hundred Thousand - act now before it is too late. If you have been PRIVELAGED and BLESSED enough to have money available in buying one of these homes in the area - utilize it for your benefit and your families benefit.

If you are seeking further consultation about homes in San Ramon or the surrounding areas - feel free to contact me. As I stated before, I have been a Broker here for about 30 years and am also a resident. My experience and guidance would be essential in you making the right decisions about purchasing a home in the area.

Mary Etebari
Corp. Broker
Pacific Properties & Investments

Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 26, 2010
Hawkeye, buyers stopped buying the last time the tax credit went away also. There was no reason not to expect the same results this time. Prices still have quite a way to go in the downward position.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 26, 2010
As a follow up, May is shaping up to be the slowest sales pace since 1963. This article below was just posted on the Associated Press.


New home sales plunge 33 pct with tax credits gone

ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer Alan Zibel, Ap Real Estate Writer – 21 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Sales of new homes collapsed last month, sinking 33 percent to the lowest level on record as potential buyers stopped shopping for homes once they could no longer get government incentives.

The Commerce Department says new home sales fell in May from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 300,000. That was the slowest sales pace on records dating back to 1963.

It indicates that buyers left the market as federal tax credits of up to $8,000 expired at the end of April.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 26, 2010
Looking at Zillow, every single Windemere property has gone up from Q2, 2009. Picking location is key.

Still good time to buy, good luck...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 23, 2010
Already experiencing more traffice going up and down 680 and SV companies are hiring again...

Housing will continue to go up and Windemere an excellent location, good luck....
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 22, 2010
Increase in housing price, Rouriel.... We had hit bottom in 2009, wait for another crash in 15 years....??

Have fun...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 22, 2010
Even the Realtors are acknowledging San Ramon is softening, here are several great articles from expert Realtors who serve the SR Market. Median prices have now fallen back to their May 2009 levels and are trending further downward.

Posted June 8th, 2010 from Bob Gibbs:

"The extremely hot San Ramon real estate market took a significant downturn in the median price for sold homes. Looking at the attached graph you will see that the sales prices for May 2010 are identical to that of May 2009. "……

Posted June 17th, 2010, Doug Buenz notes that "The San Ramon real estate market softened sharply in May". He has a great graph that shows the market moving into a classic "double dip":…

Once the Federal stimulus programs expired, the number of homes going into contract began dropping considerably. The seemingly high number of closes in May were really just homes that went into contract in March and April, as folks scrambled to buy before the incentives expired. The sales were also artificially inflated by foreclosures, which look like actual sales but are really just the bank taking back the home at the value of the foreclosed mortgage (which is almost always far greater than the current market value of the home).

If you own, it's probably a smart time to sell, before prices soften even further. If you are a buyer, consider waiting for the prices to further soften in the face of downward pricing pressures that are building stronger each day.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 22, 2010
School school. Q2 2009 was the best time to buy but now is good too if you had saved up.

SV job market is much better too and look for that to outpace state's recovery... Properties at Windemere are drawing a lot of interest.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 22, 2010
Actually they are down 2.2% and the market continues to soften:

US existing home sales in surprise fall despite tax break:…

May home sales dip as housing market struggles:
Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 22, 2010
Nouriel Roubini doesn't think so. Since you're his cousin, you should listen to him.

John Paulson has been implicated in fraud charges alongside Goldman Sachs.

Great investor...yes.

Trustworthy....I'm not so sure about that.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 25, 2010
Hi Noubini:

Check the below web reference…

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 25, 2010
Just one opposing viewpoint is below. Would you care for more? I can show them.

Housing market shudders to think of a double dip
Expiration of tax break may lead to new wave of falling prices,CST-NWS-home23.article

"The tax credit is the big reason home prices have been so buoyant, and sales will drop" with its expiration, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. "You will see a double dip in housing prices."
Distressed homes, typically sold at discounted prices, accounted for 36 percent of first-quarter sales, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 25, 2010
Forget Wall Street. Throw out the sales and price figures for May. Reading trends is only helpful up to the time the trend disappears.

I live in one of the healthiest parts of the economy - Colorado. So forgive my rose-tinted glasses. But I'm not alone. Are builders building just trying to keep the doors open, or is something about to happen in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Southern Cal? Granted the New York Times piece seems to have a finger-wagging tone, but builders have to believe the economy is reinvigorating enough to warrant some new homes. See the Times story below.

Sure, home prices are moving sideways and downward in a lot of the nation. But, it's not true everywhere. High unemployment in southern California has not deterred building there.

So what gives?

I think predicting a bottom is a skill most of us don't have. The lows can go lower, or they can take an abrupt turn. I see a growing number of analysts predicting housing will come back in 2011. Why? No one has been building for three years. Even with inventory still coming from foreclosures, analysts are forecasting a shortage of new homes. I think the thing that can throw off these predictions is tighter money. It won't matter how much demand there is if no one is lending.………
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 25, 2010…

The housing slump isn't over.

Tax credits and historically low mortgage rates have failed to lift home prices so far this year. Prices fell 0.5 percent in March from February, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday .

The co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, who predicted in 2005 that the housing bubble would burst, is raising concerns that the worst may be ahead. That fear is shared by other economists who point to weak job growth, tight credit and many more foreclosures ahead.

"I'm worried still about the risk of a double-dip," economist Robert Shiller said in an interview.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 25, 2010
As the end of the home buyer tax credit neared last month, we all argued whether or not the increase in sales and the relative price stabilization could survive on their own.

The first clues indicate the answer is: No.

One full week after the tax credit's expiration, mortgage applications fell 9.5 percent; this as mortgage interest rates dropped below 5 percent.

Sure, refis jumped, but that doesn't help us much with the currently bloated inventory of homes on the market.

Another report today from showed home sellers losing that little bit of ground they had recently gained in pricing. The number of properties on the market as of May 1st that saw at least one price cut rose 10 percent. (See Trulia's chart below.)

"With more than a year of the federal government's involvement, we are now re-entering the free market system. As we read just to the free market, we expect to hit turbulence in some markets," says Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. "We won't know the true severity of the tax credit expiration until the conclusion of the peak home buying season in the summer months. Only then will we have a better sense if the U.S. housing market can stand on its own two feet."
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri May 14, 2010
John Paulson vs Meredith Whitney, one made billions betting agasint sub-prime loan, one correctly predicted troubles in banking system, depend on who you believe and who you want to believe.

I don't know if Paulson is now betting a upswing in housing market. If he does, I would rather listen to him, when a bear turn bullish.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri May 14, 2010
These are some remarks by Meredith Whitney from a Bloomberg hedge fund conference last week predicting a <b>double dip</b> in housing.

"If you look at what happened last year, I would say a vast majority of the banking sector's profits and capital creation was government induced. In the first quarter, it's highly arguable that certain companies wrote up assets. People lowered their provisions on losses.

"What has kept home prices stable - and make note that politicians and banks are eating their own cooking because they really believe home prices are stable - they're stable because there's been a ton of inventory kept from the market. So if you control the supply, you can control the price without controlling the demand.

"Here's a statistic that I find fascinating. This is just for the top four banks. If you look at nonperforming assets - that's loans that haven't paid over 120 days - the size of that is 1.5 times all of the chargeoffs that banks have incurred since 2005. So you think credit has stabilized, mortgages have stabilized? Non-performs have ballooned so they've more than doubled since the beginning of 2009, and that's just stuff that has to start going on to the market, and interestingly, this quarter you're starting to see housing supply reach the market. That to me triggers another down leg in housing, so to me, I'm steadfast in my belief that there's going to be another double-dip in housing"
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed May 12, 2010
That statement is absolutely meaningless and worthless to home buyers and sellers.

It may have some relevance to the economy as a whole--and to his hedge fund--but none to individuals.

Condos? Townhouses? Single-family homes? Urban? Suburban? Rural? Northern California? Southern California? Virginia? Texas?

Now, if the great Mr. Paulson will tell me that single-family homes in Fairfax County are going up by x%, that might have some use. Or, perhaps for you, townhouses in San Ramon are going up by x%, maybe that's information you could act on. But not a number (or a range) that could apply to condos in Santa Fe and townhouses in St. Louis.

Further, what's that mean: a rise of 3-5%? Come on. That's a 66% variation. Is that 3%? 4%? 5%?

Understand, I'm not saying Paulson is wrong. But I am saying that the statement is meaningless for buyers, sellers, or even small-time (as measured in millions, rather than billions) investors.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
Don Tepper, Real Estate Pro in Fairfax, VA
That is so general a statement.

I certainly hope it doesn't delude sellers, particularly distressed property owners, that they can get more for their properties than they are worth in their local markets in their current market conditions. It's like saying it's going to rain in Death Valley and Seattle at the same time.

Several areas have lost so much market value that 3-5% is barely an improvement. See…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
Hello Rouriel,

If you look at recent statistics, prices have actually gone up slightly already. We wont see the crazy spikes like before anytime soon but its starting to look better. Please let me know if you'd like a list of available properties and also comps on your current home. No obligations.

Kamal Randhawa
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
I think we have to remember that when John Paulson speaks he is referring to the country as a whole. I would like to believe that he is right but there are still many parts of the country where they would be happy just to see a market that had stoppped declining, let alone any increases.

Bernard Gibbons

Bernard Gibbons, DRE License # 01331583
J. Rockcliff Realtors, 15 Railroad Avenue, Danville, CA 94526
Phone (925) 997-1585 -
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
Thank you for your forecast. I appreciate your optimism.

Your prediction of an increase in the price of homes is realistic because of the extension of the home buyer tax credit in California; however, there are a lot of hurdles our economy has to overcome.

The California Home Buyers Tax Credit coupled with the impending rise in interest rates could stimulate activity in the market. If the employment numbers get better we could have a full recovery.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 10, 2010
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