You are considering a maintenance provided property. All of these communities have a monthly HOA. $125 per month is very reasonable. They can be quite a bit higher than that in other maintenance provided communities. When someone is wanted this type of property they are expecting to pay a monthly fee for these services.
In regards to the housing market in Shawnee over the next two years, no one can predict that or any other area for that matter. However, a realtor can run comps for you and give you a history of that area for comparable properties.
With all that being said, there can be a big difference from one HOA to another. I would suggest consulting with your realtor. If you don't have one, I would be happy to assist.
On the flip side there are many buyers who refuse to be in an HOA because they do not like someone dictating to them what color they paint their home and how tall their grass is or having to ask permission for a relative to visit them in an RV etc.
This is a very buyer-specific preference and I believe you will find buyers in any market who prefer one over the other.
I would suggest for home values, you consult your Realtor and have them run some historic comps for you. Compare what the properties sold for in your subdivision last year compared to another nearby subdivision without HOA and then compare what it's current values are compared to that same neighborhood. You could at least get a feel if they are moving in the same proportion to each other.
Good luck with your home buying!