Keller Williams Realty
You have the property, that is being offered at a price of 18% below the market price two years ago, sounds like a great dea.
The question is where are you getting your numbers from?
You need to know what is happening in that community. There is a 40% likelihood your arrows are pointing in the opposite direction of the community values.
Next comes, what established this 2 year ago value? DID it sell? Was it listed? It is important to determine if this value is fact or fiction.
The only truthful answer is what are you willing to offer? Have you made an offer?
What is the owner willing to accept? Have they received your offer?
willing buyer + willing seller = what the property is worth
The best answer the the question as you present is can be found on any aggregate web site. However, when you get serious, you may want to use other tools.
There is overwhelming evidence that the "bottom" of the market has likely passed. If you've looked at a good number of homes, done your research (as it appears you have), then you know the answer. Would it help if you rephrased the question to: Would someone else pay $xxxx for this house, right now, today, as is? If you are certain the answer is YES, then you are getting a "good deal." Regardless of the price 2-years ago.
The consistent answer from all us professional agents tells you that we KNOW that the marketplace is very very efficient. That is, there are enough buyers and sellers doing their homework to firmly establish reasonable prices for property.
My personal advice: If you love the house, can afford the mortgage, then BUY THAT HOUSE, ASAP. If you don't love it enough to write the good-faith deposit, keep looking! It's sort of like finding the love of your life. When it happens, you won't be asking any of us if you've found a good deal. Your heart will tell you!
Your buyer's agent should provide a market analysis for you just as the seller's agent does for them. You will look at what has sold, what is for sale and what did not sell for a specific period of time (usually 3 months when the market is changing rapidly - as it is now).
If you're not already working with an agent please contact me with the address of the property and your contact info. I'll prepare a market analysis for you and we can talk.
Feel free to call or email me and I will gladly help you.