likely keep declining in 2009.
My financial planner also told me last summer, at his seminars, the Dow was suppose to break 15k by Jan 1 of 08.... those were experts too.
I feel confident when Gary Keller (of Keller Williams) analyzes the markets ...... he says for depressed states FL AZ and Ca might be until 2012 when the bottom hits.....of course he was referring to value.
Volume will increase as prices become more affordable ... according to an affordable factor and index. Simply, the lower the price the more people can afford it. However, people will be buying a good % of foreclosures and REO's and will always expect a less than sticker agreed price they will settle for. This hurts the values as long as they remain a well portioned %, and until the last of the 2005 -2006 ARMs expire we will not know how far the bottom of value will truely go yet.
If Rates go up then the prices have to fall more in order for the affordability factor index will allow more people to purchase. Until it becomes balanced again.
The only thing you can do is pay attention to your local market Stats, rates, and foreclosure/ REO sales and they will guide you to make the best decision for your clients.
If you listen to the experts they only refer to avg. and your local market may be higher or lower than the avg.
I don't know how your market is, but down here, luxury and normal move in two directions. For me, inventory is a good indicator, and I even split that between the three counties (for Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach) as well as SFH, THs and condos, so I'm looking month over month at six different numbers, condos in Miami-Dade being by far the most miserable.
Phil, I'd be most interested in the articles too - could you email them to me as well at email@example.com?
All the best,
Tobias Kaiser, MS, CIPS
Greater Fort Lauderdale Real Estate Broker + Consultant
Certified International Property Specialist
Only time will tell, but in the meantime, we are left with playing the hand we were dealt.
The "Eckler Team"
I just posted an article to our KW Realtors. It was from the Wall Street Journal and also our NAR Economist gave a report yesterday which indicators are predicting we are bottoming out. If you email me I will send you post articles.