Amy Herring, Real Estate Pro in Tallahassee, FL

Have you heard the experts say that our FL market should turn back around b y next Spring?

Asked by Amy Herring, Tallahassee, FL Thu May 8, 2008

I've heard in several seminars that the experts are predicting by Spring 2009 the market should be stronger. Do you feel supply and demand will be more in balance since building has slowed down? What other indicators should we consider?

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IMO! People when they hear market turn around have 2 different thoughts... one thought is Value and the other is volume....... I would say that the number of sales will pick up, However the Value will most
likely keep declining in 2009.

My financial planner also told me last summer, at his seminars, the Dow was suppose to break 15k by Jan 1 of 08.... those were experts too.

I feel confident when Gary Keller (of Keller Williams) analyzes the markets ...... he says for depressed states FL AZ and Ca might be until 2012 when the bottom hits.....of course he was referring to value.

Volume will increase as prices become more affordable ... according to an affordable factor and index. Simply, the lower the price the more people can afford it. However, people will be buying a good % of foreclosures and REO's and will always expect a less than sticker agreed price they will settle for. This hurts the values as long as they remain a well portioned %, and until the last of the 2005 -2006 ARMs expire we will not know how far the bottom of value will truely go yet.

If Rates go up then the prices have to fall more in order for the affordability factor index will allow more people to purchase. Until it becomes balanced again.

The only thing you can do is pay attention to your local market Stats, rates, and foreclosure/ REO sales and they will guide you to make the best decision for your clients.

If you listen to the experts they only refer to avg. and your local market may be higher or lower than the avg.

Michael Brenner
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu May 8, 2008
By instinct, my own numbers and from what I read I would say: bottoming out in summer, perhaps pause in autumn, first slow increases in winter or spring.

I don't know how your market is, but down here, luxury and normal move in two directions. For me, inventory is a good indicator, and I even split that between the three counties (for Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach) as well as SFH, THs and condos, so I'm looking month over month at six different numbers, condos in Miami-Dade being by far the most miserable.

Phil, I'd be most interested in the articles too - could you email them to me as well at tckaiser@email.com?
Many thanks!

All the best,

Tobias Kaiser, MS, CIPS
Greater Fort Lauderdale Real Estate Broker + Consultant
Certified International Property Specialist
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu May 8, 2008
Many informed people are "hanging their hats" on the November presidential election. We are encouraged by the activity of this past season that dropped off but continues to show promise...the recovery will come in little steps. Let's hope this is the beginning of a short journey.

Only time will tell, but in the meantime, we are left with playing the hand we were dealt.

The "Eckler Team"
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 1, 2008
Yes Amy,
I just posted an article to our KW Realtors. It was from the Wall Street Journal and also our NAR Economist gave a report yesterday which indicators are predicting we are bottoming out. If you email me I will send you post articles.

Phil
Phil@PhilFowler.com
Web Reference: http://www.PhilFowler.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 8, 2008
Yes, I have heard that too, I'm in arizona
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu May 8, 2008
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