The site below claimed to be right about 85% of the time last year.
http://www.housingpredictor.com/index.html
That is a decent average. But consider, if you followed their advice only 10% of the time you could have gotten everything wrong. No one is perfect when making an economic forecast. There are so many variables to consider. As an example, the gulf oil spill will affect housing prices in some places. But no one saw it coming 3 months ago.

So many things can change or come into play that are not expected that the perfect forecast is impossible.

Thank you for your question Mr. Martin, I think it is a very important one that no one is answering directly.

Predictions are only as good as the interests involved.

I recently predicted a rise in sales prices in some areas of Orange County based on my degree in Business Administration with a concentration in Corporate Finance, the classes I have taken in hopes of acquiring my Real Estate Brokers License, and the numerous computer science classes I have taken because I like computers. After making my predictions a number of people blasted my blog.

The people who disagreed with me were people with over 20 years experience in Orange County and people who had higher rankings on this website. In fact, they waited until I had not logged in for a couple of days before they posted their comments. Instead of responding to what I felt were personal attacks because of the puffery involved in the comments I deleted the entire post. The following week my predictions were validated by the release of government statistics, reports from data quick and reports from Realty Times.

Look at the trends from data sources like Data Quick and the government. Next, read the the forecasts. Finally, draw your own conclusion.

Chris,

Predicting trends in real estate is typically done over a longer period of time than the coming year - and is not too helpful in most scenarios. Even if there were a chart, it is going to be general, not specific or weighted to your home. There is no context, so it is difficult to know the best direction to offer.

Decatur real estate has been essentially flat over the last couple of years in terms of price. Properties are moving more quickly now than they have been - and the speed of the sale is more likely to change in the short term than the price. Even in Decatur, trends vary significantly by neighborhood. Consider the stability of homes / prices around you, the school district, the number of foreclosures or homes on the market nearby, etc. The more stable your neighborhood, the better you are likely to do in terms of price.

Here are some general scenarios. Please contact me if you would like an answer with more context.

When considering whether to sell now, or wait, you need to assess your homes strengths and weaknesses in the context of the current market. For instance, if you are in city of Decatur - and your home is likely to be purchased by someone with children, you want your home on the market now. Families try to move before school starts, and that means offers need to be hitting the table quickly.

If you live in a home vs. a town home or a condo, you may be ok selling immediately (today's market is different for each). These elements will play heavily into the best decision. Condo owners may be better of renting if the association permits. Town homes are competing with some substantial drops in the prices of new properties on the market - so the best option for a town home owner is probably to wait a bit if they are able. Renting may be a positive option here as well.

Other factors that are going to play in your decision to sell now or wait will include: motivation for selling (are you moving to another city, is the property likely to sit vacant), did you take a new job with a much longer commute, how much to you owe on the property (in particular relative to its current value), how quickly do you need to sell (are you up against a short sale or foreclosure scenario), the condition of the property compared to others on the market in your area, the number of homes nearby for sale, etc.

For home buyers who may read this:

If you are an investor, or someone willing to work on a property, the simplest and safest method may be to buy the property that is priced well below market because of its current condition. Address the condition(s), and the market is already at an appreciated value from your purchase price.

If you are looking to buy a property and live in it, you may consider a home that needs more modest work - like paint, carpet, and some landscaping - rather than reworking electricity and plumbing, or a new roof, etc.

Whether you are a home buyer or a seller, the best advice is to engage a professional. I would be happy to help you work through your specific scenario. Real estate is all local, and each personal situation is unique as well. I am willing to understand your specific situation and offer you the best options I see - including where I think the market will be for your home over a series of intervals (though there is no guarantee of any future value).

Regard,

Richard Reid
Broker
Direct Link Realty, Inc.

Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.

Ever hear or read the disclaimer, "past performance is no guarantee of future results?"

Anyway, everybody who predicted a near-term fall between at least 1990 and 2003 was wrong. So I guess you'd start with everybody who predicted a near-term rise, then see how good they were at predicting the recent crash, then from those, see who was any good at predicting this year's relative stability.

All the best,