Market Conditions in 30097>Question Details

Prudence Fra…, Home Seller in Johns Creek, GA

Do you see the housing market recovering by 2014?

Asked by Prudence Franklin, Johns Creek, GA Thu Feb 14, 2013

Help the community by answering this question:


I was trying to think of a more vague question but failed to do so. Lee pretty much summed it up...

Define recovery. And while doing that, define the submarket. And after doing that establish the price point, home characteristics and other locational influences....schools, developments....

Then after that, define the time period that you're analyzing that will be credible to forecast into the next two years. Consider the national and local economy and the impact of bulk investors on the area. Might also consider the mortgage rates and any local projects underway or on the books that may influence value 18-24 months out....which leads me to ask - when in '14? Jan April, Nov?

And one rather big final question - what data are you using? MLS, public records, local, national? Not all transfers are noted in all data bases. Public records will ultimately record everything but often months later - and they don't have anything data friendly to search efficiently.

Bottom line is no one is going to forecast anything. The very best you can hope for is a sound review of PAST data with a cautious eye toward a couple of months to the future. Consider that many can't even agree on what's happened, never mind what might down the road.

But......since you asked about Johns Creek, the quick and dirty:

Solid area, desirable and economically sound. Dropped like the rest but anchored by outstanding schools, strong economics and locational appeal it is doing better than most Atlanta areas -… will give you a look at Altos Research for the market. And note - Johns Creek data is a mix of a few zip codes...did I mention that as yet another variable?

Web Reference:
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Feb 15, 2013
The word recovery is loaded with intention, isn't it?

Recovered back to "what" state of health?

Recovered like "back to normal?"

I don't think that buyers will call it recovered across most submarkets - I think that many buyers are frustrated or bored, and that this malaise of low supply / high demand wil continue to drag many...

I also don't think that some neighborhoods will ever "recover" - particular some exurban submarkets. I think that the era of sprawled cookie cutter cul de sac 'hoods built between 1980 and 2007 leaves a legacy of unrecoverable prices in some areas across Atlanta - many, many "investors" are speculating on a return to "2007 prices."

I contend that many neighborhoods will never, ever see 2007 prices again - a sampling:

$200000 + houses in Lakewood
$175000 houses built in the 2000s in Lithonia, Hiram, Snellville, Buford, etc.
$400000 + houses in West Atlanta

When I say never, ever I mean for at least 2-3 decades...

Intown neighborhoods with terrific public schools are winning in today's sellers market - at all price points and in all categories.

Does that mean that these submarkets have recovered? No.

So, when will they "recover?" They will not - they'll merely adapt better to the new normal.

Will 2007 prices return? For some submarkets yes. For some submarkets - never, ever...
Web Reference: Http://
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
Hi Prudence,

The market is definitely showing signs of recovery now. If you are thinking about selling it's a great time to put your property on the market.

Ava Anderson
Associate Broker
Solid Source Realty
770 369-5121 Direct
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
Sure seems to be recovering just north of you in Cashiers, North Carolina!
Good to finally hear all the positive signs!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
In some areas at certain point points, it already has, Prudence. Please call, text or email if we can provide further assistance. Good Luck!

Michael Hammond
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
Yes I do see it recovering this year on the upswing now!

Are you thinking of selling ?

Isabel Elsesser, Realtor
First United Realty
Save Time & Money!
Direct 770-307-8751
Fax 888-799-3184
Full Time from 1993-2013

Full service marketing program.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
It's already recovering here. In some towns, Randolph, NJ for example, there is only a two month inventory, perhaps even a little less. With such low inventory it would not be at all unusual to see prices begin to rise. That is a recovery, it may not be a strong recovery, but that's OK, we don't want a repeat of last time, but still a recovery.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 14, 2013
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