Dann, I am not a professional, but I had the same question--I have been casually looking at Chicago listings for the past year in anticipation for my move to Chicago late this summer. Among all of the national reports, it didn't really seem like I was seeing any change in Chicago's (more local and specific) listing prices. But my most recent research (assisted by a few others on this site) indicates that this doesn't tell the whole story.

First, Chicago prices HAVE fallen. According to the Case-Schiller price index, Chicago home prices have fallen 6.6% in the past year. This may not seem significant in the abstract, but if we assume John Doe has a $500,000 home, he has lost $33,000 (more than many peoples' salaries)--in ONE year. The optimistic answer is that one's home is a long-term investment, so one should not focus on short-term consequences. But the fact is, the home IS an investment, it is an asset (for most people, their biggest asset), and people cannot and should not gamble with obviously stupid investments. Would you buy a stock today if you were reasonably sure it would lose $33,000 of value within the year? Of course not, and that partly explains why people aren't buying.

Of course, this data reveals the past--if home price trends were changing, buying now would make sense. But trends are not changing--in fact, prices are now declining at their fastest rate yet (Case-Schiller's most recent data indicates that Chicago prices fell 2.2%--or $11,000 on a $500k home--in the last MONTH; if this rate is annualized, meaning we assume price declines do not further accelerate during the year, we see that Chicago home values are now falling at a rate of more than 20%/year, equating to a more than $100,000 equity loss for a person owning a previously-valued $500k home).

This chart is based on raw home price data, and it graphically shows this shocking trend (thanks to John the Bruce for the website link):
http://www.globalindices.standardandpoors.com/data/pdf/CSHom…

Based on my research, there is no reason to believe things are improving. According to RealtyTrac's February data, Chicago was second only to Las Vegas in foreclosures last month (so much for hoping this problem was limited to the coasts). The impact of these foreclosures have not yet been felt.

While listing prices superficially seem to be stagnant and not dramatically declining, the fact is that homes are not selling right now--at least not at high enough rates to be optimistic. My wife and I are mostly searching homes in the north/northwest part of the city. According to Trulia, this entire area (including, in my search, the neighborhoods of Lincoln Square, Ravenswood, Northcenter, Uptown, Edgewater, and Roscoe Village, from a price range of $585,000 - $775,000) has had a total of ONE property sold since January of this year. Fifty homes in these neighborhoods and in this range are currently on the market.

In short, my wife and I want to buy a house in Chicago. We are blessed to be able to buy, and we'd love to be able to settle into a house in our new city and not have to go back to renting, worrying about moving again from a rental unit to a house, etc. But we can't force ourselves to be unwise with our money, and every single objective, reliable indicator tells me that buying a house now would be like buying Enron stock seven years ago while KNOWING what was about to happen. It is just irresponsible, and that's why we (and many others, it seems) prefer to wait this one out.

Dann,

Realtors™ are worried about eating right now, they don’t have money for newspaper ads.

Your assertion regarding a stable market in Chicago just doesn't jibe with the real-world data. Check out the latest Case-Shiller Index. Chicago's on track for a 25% decline this year, assuming the down trend doesn't accelerate further. Good luck.

http://www.globalindices.standardandpoors.com/data/pdf/CSHom…

-John

Matthew,

I see your abandoned the other thread about this, but I don't understand how anyone who claims to be a "numbers nerd" can say this:

"2. I still don't understand how if half of the transactions in Chicago aren't counted, how the Case Schiller report is accurate. "

By this logic, we can't judge how the stock market is doing by looking at the S&P 500 index, or the nasdaq 100 or any of the other major indices because they don't include everything. Current census data? All crap, we haven't polled everybody this year. Average starting salaries for any industry, better make sure there isn't some mom and pop shop we missed somewhere that is paying more or less, otherwise its crap.

Wishing that the C-S index wasn't the best index out there doesn't make it so. And the fact that a realtor news site and the NAR haven't embraced only add to its credibility. The day to start worrying about the C-S data is the day Lawrence Yun starts referencing it.

Every economist worth his salt knows Case-Schiller (though admittedly imperfect, as are all models) is the most reliable home price tracker currently in existence. Matt, you're correct that Case-Schiller fails to incorporate condos and new construction, but this fact makes the Index *understate* price declines, as the condo markets have seen the steepest drawback in buyers (26.9% sales decrease year-over-year, as compared to 19% sales decrease for single family homes); the condo market is also the most heavily saturated (especially in Chicago) and is relatively volatile, meaning Case-Schiller's numbers almost certainly understate the price losses that Chicago and other cities are actually seeing.

Becaue 90% of the time they only focus on negatives thus putting peaple in panic.

...propaganda or free speach?

I am assuming that your evaluation of 35K under market is based on the bank appraisal. Or, as a investment/income property you are realizing that type of positive cash flow then you did find a value. Lastly, real estate value is set by current market activity (ie do you have a new buyer willing to pay you a NET of 35k more for the property) . Dann, believe me there are many good opportunities for real estate purchases (both residential, investment or commercial) but its my view that the Chicagoland market is far from correcting itself. I am sure you purchase was a prudent one, my observation of the Chicagoland market is that it has not stabilized yet, and even good purchases will adjust for a period time until current inventory catches up.

Matthew Doll-

You should check out the OFHEO data yourself. It seems pretty clear that Bernice Ross, the esteemed CEO of Realestatecoach.com was either purposefully or accidentally misrepresenting them in the article you cited.

OFHEO data tends to be less severe than C/S data both in the pre-burst run-up and in the post-burst tumbles, largely because it includes more non-metropolitan areas which were less severely impacted by the strange situation. This isn't an indictment of the C/S data, it's just pointing out that C/S is purely metropolitan, and the country isn't. If one is trying to draw useful national conclusions, I've seen recommendations of a mix of 70% C/S and 30% OFHEO. C/S is still the best metric, but OFHEO data captures some other useful areas.

One thing to be sure of, especially as we come into "home sale season" is that you make sure you know if you're looking at seasonally adjusted data or not, and if you aren't, that you are familiar with the adjustment mechanisms so you can tell the difference between summer buyers, and a proper recovery.

Wow - Matt, great stuff.

Ryan, you also have to remember in Chicago, the vast majority of transactiions in some neighboorhoods are condos, flats, or some form of "attached housing". You don't buy single family or detached in the Loop or many other areas. Further, those "condos", as Matt stated, are more often than not, on the high end.

So its quite possible 50-75% of Chicago transactions are missing from Case Schiller - 100% in some blocks/neighborhoods.

Even in many of hte suburbs of Chicago, I would guess half the transactions are condos, townhomes or some form of attached housing. And quite often, due to their prime locations, these attached houses are higher priced than single family.

As I stated in the other thread you started, in the neighborhoods you desire, if you find something you like, and plan to stay a few years - its a good time to buy. Supply is not huge in some blocks (and never will be).

Ryan,

Thanks for your insight. Couple of things...

1. Your information on the Lincoln Sq., Roscoe Village, Uptown, Rogers Park, etc... area is incorrect. In your price range, there are 39 detached homes that have closed since the beginning of the year between $585K and $775K. There were also 11 Attached homes that have closed in the same area.
(I ran a similar search on Trulia for DE homes and found just about the same number... a little higher). To go back to the local aspect though, you have to understand that the areas you are comparing are incredibly different due to inventory, school districts, and more. If you take a look at our report we have taken a number of these concerns and talked about them.

2. I still don't understand how if half of the transactions in Chicago aren't counted, how the Case Schiller report is accurate. In fact the editor of Inman News and many metropolitan area associations won't embrace this report. In fact... your numbers regarding the condo decrease in activity are dead wrong.

2006 - MLS all attached sales 104,160
2007 - MLS all attached sales 86,128
That's a decrease of 17.4%

2006 - Chicago all attached sales 46,126
2007 - Chicago all attached sales 41,502
That's a decrease of 10%

Lastly, with regards to the foreclosure rates, here is what I just found off of your RealtyTrac.com website.

Metro Area % of households in foreclosure in Q1 1 foreclosure for every #households
1. Indianapolis 1.45 69
2. Atlanta 1.42 70
3. Dallas 1.01 99
4. Memphis, Tenn. 0.99 101
5. Denver 0.95 105
6. Detroit 0.83 120
7. Jacksonville, Fla. 0.75 133
8. San Antonio 0.75 133
9. Canton, Ohio 0.72 140
10. Las Vegas 0.71 140

Ryan, if you truly are looking to move to Chicago and would like to do the research yourself, i would suggest a couple of things. First, register on any of the major player websites and have them email you listings of closed transactions. Our MLS has amazing capabilities to inform you of price changes, closed, etc.

Second, if you're interested in TRUE local, neighborhood numbers over the past couple of years, take a look at the market report that my IT staff and I have put together. I have enclosed the link below to the report. This is all 100% factual data pulled straight from the MLS. It has not been manipulated in any way.

Another site that you might want to check out that have excellent research.
http://www.altosresearch.com - You can subscribe to their weekly update of information that is some of the best around. You do have to request for particular zip codes, and attached housing.

As a numbers nerd I completely applaud your research on these topics. We have found that in an area like Chicago, however, with sub neighborhoods within neighborhoods, (within Lakeview alone we saw the price of single family homes increase by $200K in a 2x6 square block area because of schools and other factors like that), we need to look at this market block by block and house by house.

If you would like copies of the PDF's that I have referred to in this, please email me and I will send them to you... or for any other area that you and your wife might be considering.

BTW... I'm not a Realtor... so I'm not interested in you as a client. Only sharing the information that i have at my disposal.

Matt

Dann,

Unfortunately, the media, as talked about in numerous posts here, thrives on negative press.

However, I don't necessarily feel that this is the ONLY reason for the confusion in numbers. Another, altogether human aspect has to do with pure laziness of transforming DATA into Information, or simply accepting patial data and going with that. Allow me to explain:

"Data are plain facts. The word "data" is plural for "datum." When data are processed, organized, structured or presented in a given context so as to make them useful, they are called Information.

It is not enough to have data (such as statistics on the economy). Data themselves are fairly useless. But when these data are interpreted and processed to determine its true meaning, they becomes useful and can be called Information. "

1. Take a look at this report form Standard and Poors Case Schiller Report (unfortunately accpeted as one of the top reports with regards to housing) and noted in a recent Inman Blog entitled "Case-Shiller: Home prices drop in 19 of 20 metros"


Where there data states that prices have declined in 19 of 20 metro areas, when we take a little further look at HOW they calculate the DATA into INFORMATION we see in their FAQ:


"To be eligible to be included in the indices, a house must be a single-family
dwelling. Condominiums and co-ops are specifically excluded. Houses included
in the indices must also have two or more recorded arms-length sale
transactions. As a result, new construction is excluded."

Hmm... so what they're saying is that their "report" is based upon ONLY Single Family Homes that have sold (or transfered ownership) at least 2 times... No new construction, no condos, no rehabs... none of the things that make up a HUGE amount of the transactions in our city of Chicago... or New York... or Miami... or Boston... etc.

Also, to quote one of my company's owners in a recent television interview on NBC 5:

"National reports of real estate data, or city-wide reports are as logical as taking the temperature of the entire country in January. Chicago would be Zero and Naples would be 70... so the temperature of the country must be 50 degrees... although it sure doesn't feel like that when you walk out the door."

National or City-wide reports don't take into account any of the emotional desire to live in a particular community, and most don't take into account certain amenities such as beds, baths, single family, condo or price point. So... in essence... they're comparing the $2 million new construction with the $500,000 tear down in the same survey.

The reason I'm pretty passionate about this is due to the fact that I oversaw the construction of our company's first Chicago Neighborhood Market Report (the @Report ). This is a searchable report of 21 Chicago neighborhoods here in Chicago that allow consumers and agents alike to read not only an overview of their neighborhood, but drill down into information based on their particular home. This is its first release and will shortly be updated with 1Q08 information, as well as incorporating charting functions and other Web 2.0 attributes.

Sorry for the long post, but I would recommend taking the time to really research what you read before formulating any opinions as well as continuing to post to areas like this that shotty research and vanilla overviews are unacceptable and doing a great dis-service.

Matt Dollinger

- Email me for links to the various sources used in this post or vist my blog

There are a lot of factors at play here. You could look at asking price, bid price or selling price. There is definetly a delta between the ask and bid. Interests rates are still at historic lows, although the qualification has tightened. The market has been flooded by lemmings wanting to "sell high". There is also a much smaller segment that cannot afford the home they are in. Since a home is only worth what both parties agree its worth, it is hard to comprehend exactly what the drop may be.

There are regional differences as well. Markets tend to balloon and crash more in the east coast and the west coast and south. Since the media is centered in these areas, they tend to be more local centric.

It is yet to be seen where this ends up. I think there is an adjustment taking place. There is a little bit of panic with the baby boomers and those that are in over their heads. It appears they want to sell like everyone else, but are not willing to lower their prices unless they have too. That tells me that there is still bouncy in the market. The question is, when will the buyers come back? This will determine where the bottom is.

I do think the market has dropped, however I do not think it is as catastrophic right now as the left leaning media would make you believe, after all, it is an election year.

Dann,

It really depends on what micro-market you're talking about. Some pockets in Chicago are stable or are even appreciating, but on the whole the Chicago market is considered declining, at least, according to the mortgage insurers. Frankly, they're the ones that count because lenders will not even think about extending credit unless they are assured their exposure is insured. MI companies use data compiled from sales to make their determinations, so as a whole, the Chicagoland area is declining.

I have had this conversation numerous times with other Realtors, as well as clients. Most of the news stories that you see on television refer to national averages. Markets such as Southern California, Florida, and Arizona have seen large decreases in property value after seeing property values soar during the past seven years. The Chicago economy is much more diversified than most and our housing stock is more mature, which helps stabilized our market. This means that we don't get the 20% spikes when the national real estate market is hot, but we also typically expience more moderate property decreases in a down market.

Prices have remained fairly stable in the Chicago market. It should be noted, however, that marketing time has increased and the total volume (# of homes sold) has also decreased significantly over the past two years.

Newest Go Cubs alter ego, how about...

The power in the city of chicago is put together and maintained by a private group. They should have the right to charge everyone in the city of Chicago $100/kilowatt hour for power. On top of that, they should have the right to restrict access to power lines meaning you pay for their power or you get no power.

or ...

The telephone line to your house is put together and maintained by a private telephone company. They should have the right to allow whom they want access to their lines. If you'd like a different long distance carrier, or DSL from another carrier, etc, they can restrict access.

I think everyone would use the MLS if access wasn't restricted. Of course that may change before too long..

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/27/realtors.settlement/index.html

There are local markets all over the country that are not plummeting. Just outside chicago in northwest indiana - prices have stayed on a pretty consistent track for... oh.... 100 years now?

When you're talking about media - you have to remember two things. Big media outlets that have national appeal (which all aspire to) focus on national issues and national trends. While the local market may be more stable then the national average - they don't care - because they're focusing on the national average.
Second - stability doesn't sell. The big news right now is doom and gloom. that sells.

WIsh there was some better answer, but - this idea of a fair and impartial media is kinda quaint these days. Media is a business, and whatever sells is what you'll hear.

Great response Matt - I too always wonder how Case-Shiller became so popular given it is so biased and flawed.

Further, the median value is so skewed right now due to the uptick in foreclosures - couple that with a slower high end...the median shrinks quick.

Yes, the market is slow...but I would agree, its overblown by the media and limited data such as Case.

Good answers below, especially addressing the variability of markets and micro-markets.

I'd like to make an entirely different point (drawing on my background in journalism): It isn't news if something is unchanged. It literally isn't "new" and thus isn't "news." For instance, even if these were true, can you imagine seeing any of these headlines?

Gasoline Prices Remain Stable
Gold Prices Unchanged From 2004
Mortgage Rates Steady Since 2006

Or how about:

Freight Trains Remain Energy-Efficient
Tornados Continue to Pose Danger to Lives, Property
Light Bulbs Preferred Over Candles for Illumination

Hope that helps.

absolutely, but I am afraid that 90% of the people react to the general story and the lump us all togeter.

I am a Realtor down in Springfield, Illinois and just wanted to comment on the recent article in The Chicago Tribune that has Springfield as #2 in the country as being affordable and not only stable, our median home price has grown every year. If the general public would pay attention to the negative news stories showing the Plummeting market, they need to see it's an AP story, not for just their own local marketing area.

Great questions Zach. I think each buyer/Investor needs to figure out at what price do THEY find value in the the property. Most Realtors will say it's a great value because it's being offered for sale below the current comps. I guess that sounds good if the property in mention is for sale say at 450k and the comps are 500k. But what most realtors won't tell you is that 5 years ago the places were selling for 400k.

It would be nice to have a crystal ball to see when the bottom will hit so you can buy.

Good luck

Dann, where are you getting you information from regarding a stablized local market?

Go Cubs/Slash,
Weren't you deleted already? What happened to your previous posts? Apparently anyone who uses objective data is a "no it all [sic]". Only the realtors know the true data. Look at David Lereah, he definitely has the good info: http://www.moneybluebook.com/the-national-association-of-rea… And now Lawrence Yun, right on the money: http://seekingalpha.com/article/76981-nar-s-lawrence-yun-con…

I like your last posts where you told Ryan to stop being a "liar lawter [sic]".

Absolutely Patrick...

If you do a search in "the loop" proper, there are zero Detached (single Family) transactions year after year, and zero come on the market. Attached (which includes condos, "flats", duplex, and townhomes) are not included in the report. Also new construction is not included in the S&P report... so that means that areas of suburbs that are recently built won't be counted either.

There's a great post on Inman that explains the downfall of the S&P Case Schiller Report today entitled, "Put a Gag on Chicken Little". It shows how the S&P index is calculated versus others done by NAR, OFHEO, etc. I have attached that link below.

As I said in my last post, anyone who wants the info that I have quoted, email me and I'd be happy to send over the PDF reports.

Matt Dollinger

Dann, I actually have seen very favorable local stories in the Trib about areas near my office (Lincoln Park and Lakeview). Like us realtors, the press has to wait for the data to come in from the Chicago Association of Realtors before they can report on it. For me, one of the indicators Chicago is doing ok is that we have not made it on the watch lists generated by mortgage insurance companies (like California, Florida, etc).

Hi Dann. It is frustrating. While prices have remained pretty stable it is still a tough market. Market times are up and good places are taking a long time to sell. The silver lining is that most areas have not seen drastic depreciation. Us Realtors are doing are best to inform people that the Chicagoland area has been doing better than most of the nation. However, when have you known the news to pass along good news.

Dann,
How long has your house been on the market?

Bravo Ryan, You truely had the best response out all of us...including mine!

Your home work and due diligence will serve you well once you move up to beautiful Chicagoland.

As a LONG term investor I look for properties that I will keep for several years. Although it takes me a long time, I look for properties that are valued under the comps by 15-25%. They are out there and not all bank owned ( Foreclosures are a joke, unless you have a lot of time to wait out the banks stupid process.)

Good luck in your search up here!

John,
Stop being so Realistic!
:)

Funny how many Realtors here in Chicago keep saying that Chicagoland is almost immune to a decline like the Left and East Coast. Hey, is that yet another foreclosure I see going up in Chicago!

Facts are, the sub prime mess will determine what happens in Chicago. The tip of the ice berg has only been seen. The bulk of the sub primes will hit and you will see a greater number of foreclosures here in the Chicagoland area. I don't know about you but I would expect a decline in the values in Chicago in the near future.

Thanks Carl. I asked this question again in an individual post.

I have a question for anyone discussing market value. How do you know what market value is when things are selling so slow and prices drop daily? I am on my own search for property and people keep saying X building is way under market value. How can anyone know what market value is and actually believe it?

My 35k is not an evaluation from a bank (No need for a middle man to share in my cash flow and profits)but based on the fact that 3 other properties in the same subdivision are priced and may I add, recently sold for 25k more. And no, not a foreclosure, no bank peeps involved but rather a wise seller motivated to sell at a more correct market price. The others that I mention above have been on the market for more than 150 days. The current comps that my oh so wise Realator has shown me are showing the comp averages up at 35k more than what I paid for my investment property.

Granted, Chicago did not have the vast appreciations as the Left and East coast but it did indeed have appreciation in the last several years. So, as they say, what goes up comes down and I see Chicago eventually having a correction in it's pricing as well. How much...who knows, but Chicago does not have tropical trees drawing people to move here...If they do I suspect they have beautiful iclcles hanging on them in the winter.

I just purchased an Investment property 35k under market.....I hope to get the next one for 40k under the comps!