The latest data for :"solds" , which includes condos,8 sales -Lowest $ 158.000; highest $ 1,075.000; average $ 490,563. median: 445,000; Per Sq.FT $ 329,96. Victoria Wells - 415-710-4090 - Broker Associate, eco-Broker Bradley Real Estate, S.R. http://www.marinbesthomes.com, vawells@comcast.net
source MarinIJ 8/28/09

Jim, great response. I'm in the home buying market in San Rafael and ended up on Trulia to get the information you've so insightfully summarized here. Thanks for sharing.

Naturally, it depends on where you are looking, but I believe that you and I are looking for similar homes. This is a bit of a long-winded answer to get to $600K-$750K, but I believe prices should be lower. The pricing trend is seriously downward. and there are three main reasons for that.

First, you have to have a high credit score - about 750+ with variable income and assets. When I applied for pre-approval, I need to submit pay stubs and brokerage statements among other info. Not heard of by scum back mortgage brokers (that includes nearly all of them) in god knows how long.

Next, you cannot take a "second" to get a "first." That means, that you cannot go to one lender to help you get 20% down and then turn to another lender with "your" 20% down to get a conforming loan. That's the way it has been for some 20+ years, but those days are now gone. So, if you don't have 20% down, that is even if you have 19% down, you have to pay mortgage insurance, which on about $600K has been quoted to me from $250-$400/month ($3,000-$5,000 annually), which naturally impacts one's ability to make mortgage payments and the insurance does not qualify as a tax deduction or credit.

Finally, conforming loan limits reset officially in December, but banks were not willing to give conforming loans at the 2008 level as soon as the finance crisis became well established by October - just when we started looking. So, instead of being able to get a loan up to about $719K in Marin, your max loan limit has been $625.9K since October and will remain there until Fall 2009. One penny over and you pay jumbo rates - about 3% above the conforming loan limit, which them makes a house with a mortgage of $650K unaffordable to someone looking for a "medium" home.

(As a side note: Conforming loan limits are based upon the average price in a county. Therefore, conforming loan limits will likely be lower again for 2010 based upon 2009 sales prices, which will lower housing prices again. So, if you buy in this year, be prepared to have your house drop another 5%-10%. If unemployment bottoms out in the next year, housing prices should bottom/stabilitze by late 2010 to mid 2011, though. Unclear is when they will start moving meaningfully upward again.)

As a result, with the artificial floor of conforming loan limits having dropped 13% in Marin from 2008 to 2009 (it dropped 22% in Sonoma from $662K to $520K), with no easy options to help one generate the presently $120K-$150K for 20%, and with credit approval difficult to come by, there is tremendous pressure on home prices in the "middle class" (incomes from $100K-$175K) neighborhoods with "medium" homes to drop further.

Since we started looking at "medium" homes in San Rafael in October, prices have dropped about 7% on average (10% for fixers) from $650K-$800K to $575K-$750K. With the issues outlined above, these "medium" homes should be valued between $525K for a fixer to $650K for a move-in condition home.

The problem stemming from this more realistic price appraisal is that people have too much paper on these "medium" homes, that is, these "medium" homes are worth less than what is owed, so there is no room for negotiation with the sellers who bought between 2000-2008, which leaves you dealing with the banks that have determine whether to accept a "short" offer in a "short sale," which takes an eternity to resolve. That will leave more homes on the market longer, and will, in the end, depress prices even further.

In closing, what sellers do not get is that in California, we have experienced for the first time ever a 14-year bull run in real estate (1994-2008) without a single correction. Normally, in California there is a 4- to 6-year bull run with a correction to 2-3 years prior to the peak, and then another run. So, theoretically, we presently need to experience 2 corrections to get to historically normal prices. To date, we have hit one correction, but we still have to reach the second, which would put us at about 2002 prices, which prices fairly well correlate with the estimates ($525K-$600K) that I have provided above.

So, presently prices are $600K-$750K for "medium" homes, but they should probably be between $525K (for an updater/minor fixer condition "medium" home) to $650K (for a move-in condition "medium" home).

Of course all the stats you've received can give you the direct answer to your question...However, San Rafael is broken up in many different sections, school districts, exits off the freeway and price points. We can start all the way from Foreclosures under 200K-300k, up to beautiful luxury homes 2-5M, or we can get a great home in some areas of San Rafael from around 700K to 1.4M. Amazing weather & beauty here. What else would be helpful to know?

You might be interested in looking at this..http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/California/San_Rafael-heat_map/
and
http://www.bhgrealestate.com/Views/Look/Default.aspx

They both should help you get an idea of what you are looking for. Best, Dunes

I can! You can follow trends and see specific information by following my blog at http://KelleyEling.wordpress.com

John,

I assume(?) that as a Real Estate Pro you have access to the San Francisco MLS. Presently the San Francisco MLS, BAREIS MLS which covers the North Bay counties and Metrolist which covers the Central Valley share access with the Single Sign On feature. So... you can access BAREIS and analyze historical sales in whatever manner you choose.

FWIW, that means that any consumer should be able to obtain listing information from any realtor that belongs to any of those three Associations.

Hello John,

According to the Marin Multiple Listing Service statistics the average price for a home in San Rafael that you have described is approximately $675,000. Because you are asking for the average price of a medium house I am basing my answer on homes that sold in San Rafael in September and October and that were up to and no larger than 2,000 square feet of living space. I can be more precise if you let me know of a particular area and size of home (Bedrooms & Baths or Square Footage) you are interested in.

I hope you find my answer to be helpful to you. Please feel free to contact me at 415-328-5186 if I can be of any assistance to you with your real estate needs.

Sincerely,
Dave Corbin, Frank Howard Allen Realtors

Hello John,
Can you please explain what you mean by medium? Such as... a number of bedrooms or a certain square footage? Do you have a particular area of San Rafael you are interested in?

Warm Regards, Leslie
415.686-2664