Daniel,
If you do your homework and buy smart, buying is still the best route to go. Even on a short term basis, a smart buy could save you money in the long run.
Good luck,

Wed May 14 2008, 12:45

I have 2 homes for sale / rent in the Tampa area. Maybe we could come to some sort of agreement that would work for us both... I'd be willing to rent for 3 years , aportion a market price to the home now then in 3 years split the profit with you... If you are interested drop me a line....baney65@comcast.net.....Martin

Mon Apr 28 2008, 19:40

paula
at least trulia works on your new vista machine
and you shouldn't have dropped out of Harvard
we'll forgive bill for it

jeff
nobody knows about the future
you are correct
but we can talk about here and now
you don't need a crystal ball
lets say, FL housing prices increased over 100%
avg joe's salary didn't
now its time for the correction
20% is a very conservative estimate
i think for FL the decreases will be much more

realtors shouldn't be too concerned
when things adjust there will buyers/sellers again

you'll just have to drop the
"houses never go down in value" thing

at least i didn't get the thumbs down on my last post

anyways

good luck

Sun Mar 30 2008, 10:04

You have a great opportunity ahead of you. The Tampa prices are very low and may be a terrific time to BUY RIGHT. Start building equity and sell when you are ready to leave. Even if you break even when you sell, it would be like renting it for that time period, you have the tax benefits AND, you have something to bargain with. JUST be careful in your purchase. South Tampa is a great area to explore. Good luck and all the best! Jim Soda - 941-809-7758 jimsoda@prudentialpalmsrealty.com Prudential Palms Realty; Sarasota FL.

Sun Mar 30 2008, 09:55

Dear Hi again in VA,
LOL! Love your answers - even tho most are incorrect. Bill Gates got his start by dropping out of College, and getting a buddy to help him invent Windows OS in his parents garage. That is risky, for sure - and to go up against APPLE?? EVEN riskier.

Warren Buffet didn't pick the cheap and safe, he picked the sure bets, lived beneath his means and didn't give his money away.

and btw - If you look at my original answer, I did not ask Daniel to call me either, although many others DID and I consider that as a form of spam on this forum, so not sure where that came from.

As for my windows software, I got a new pc and it came with VISTA. Right now I'd love to choke BG, but am going to work thru this and buy a MAC the next time. Even the tech support people don't know how to help you when you have a problem, and if I upgraded the 15 programs that don't work with VISTA, it would cost me a mere $3500. That does not include my all-in-One printer, copier, fax and scanner which is not VISTA compliant, so don't get me on a roll with that issue ;-)

This was a fun diatribe though, thanks for your answers from the other side of the fence, even if you didn't answer all of my questions ;-) it was nice of you to respond, since most don't, and we always wonder if we helped, made a difference or did someone just die, lol!

Sun Mar 30 2008, 09:04

To Hi Just looking in Virginia, the problem is nobody know who is going to be right. In my 30 years of buying and selling real estate, it is impossible to know when a recovery is going to come, and when the highs and lows are close. In 1998 I bought a home, which was a period when most economists and the media were reporting that it was a terrible time to buy. It ended up being a great time to buy as the housing market went up suddenly. I tend to get nervous when the media and economists are saying things are fantastic as they were in 2005, or when everything is horrendous as they now say.

You say there is going to be another 20% decline on average (I would love to know what crystal ball you are using), I for one do not know whether we are close to the bottom, at bottom or far from the bottom, and I do not believe anyone else knows. Oh there will be someone correct this time in their prediction, but they may have been wrong twenty times. Just watch the money shows and one says this stock is the best to buy, the next hates it. Same with the housing market.

I do think your 20% figure could be correct in a way, and that is that 80% to 90% of the homes in this market are overpriced. Those would have to be reduced with many requiring a 20% reduction or more to sell. However, there are many homes that are selling in this market, and I doubt there will be any need to reduce the price another 20%. I always search for the best buys for my clients and just last week we had 12 homes to go see. When my clients arrived in town, there were only four that were not under contract. Well priced homes sell in any market.

Quite simply every market has its true market value, and homes at that days market value will sell, and actually sell quickly.

Again, you could be correct, or not. We will have to wait up to three years to find out. Personally, I doubt the homes that are truly priced to market today, will not see any great price reductions, but those that are overpriced which is the majority, will have to come down, or they may have to wait a long time for the prices to get back to the prices they are asking for.

The other thing nobody mentions is mortgage rates. That is another thing where there are lots of predictions on where the rates will be in the future. If the majority is correct and inflation is our big fear, and with rates now historically very low, a 10% price reduction savings can be wiped out if mortgage rates rise just 1% which is not unheard of.

Remember for the last three recessions we have had, economists and the media have predicted they would occur fourteen times, so they were only correct 21% of the time.

So going back to Daniel's original question of should he buy with a guarantee of only being here for three years, it is a tough question to answer.If he had 5 - 10 years the answer would be easier. If he were asking for an area such as Detroit the answer would also be easier. But in an area such as Tampa, where the influx of people is expected to grow at a slower pace, but still growing, the answer is not as easy. Especially with most recovery's taking a V shape where when they finally hit bottom, they spike back up. Will this happen this time? Only time will tell. Does anybody know when we have hit the low? I do not believe so.

Most make great profits in real estate, and the number of years where people lose money is relatively small, however as in all investments if you bought at the high point then it really hurts those people as we see today.

Sun Mar 30 2008, 08:36

on the profound (lol for sure)

"I'll bet Warren Buffet or Bill Gates didn't get where they are today by playing it safe, or cheap. "

I'm not a gambling woman but i bet you are wrong
Warren Buffets middle name should be cheap or safe
he lives in an "avg joe" house in Omaha, NE (for about the past 30 years)
he drives an "avg joe" car (i think its a chrysler)
he got where he is by being safe and cheap
he bought safe and cheap stocks
if you bought the berkshire hathaway stock 20 years ago for about $1000
its worth about $110,000 today
Bill Gates
similar
do you want your windows software to be risky and expensive?

remember the 2000 tech bubble?
if you bought YAHOO stock for $250 per share
that would be risky and expensive
by 2001 YAHOO stock was $25 per share
that would be safe and cheap
and Warren bought a bunch.
housing bubble is the same way


my advice is simple

if you are buying
wait, rent for now
don't join the 8.3 million people in the "underwater" adventure this year
yes, buy when the prices have corrected (probably another 20% avg decline)

if you are selling
its not a good time to sell the house

if that gets me thumbs down
i'm ok with that

are you selling your house?
why not?

are you buying a house?
why not?

put yourself in Dan's shoes for a second

I've given him a good answer

and I didn't tell him to call me

anyways

good luck

Sun Mar 30 2008, 07:27

btw - I forgot to add a 'profound statement' (lol!)

I'll bet Warren Buffet or Bill Gates didn't get where they are today by playing it safe, or cheap.

Sometimes it is better to take a chance. It all depends on how conservative you are... but in most cases the very wealthy or (at least ) financially sound people never played it cheap, OR safe.

ooooh!

Profound words of wisdom from the "unsafe and not cheap realm ;-) "

You can have safe and conservative, or you can be a mover and a shaker, but you can't have both. Maybe Trulia should insist on more info, then we could all give better advice but until then, miles to go before anyone sleeps.

Sat Mar 29 2008, 14:44

rofl, not a personal attack, just an opinion. You wondered why you got 2 thumbs down, and I just responded. Regarding your thoughts on renting vs buying and getting out easy though, I have a curiousity question ;-) if you don't mind sharing your thoughts (or anyone else, feel free to chime in as well).

Lets say you rent for $2K/month and live there one year, that is $2400 bucks.
Now lets say you BUY for $2K/mo, get the tax write off with mtg interest, homestead and SOH and you sell, even at a tad bit of a loss a year or so later...

Has anyone ever really crunced these numbers to see if they'd be better off renting vs buying? The upside is, the market may improve (hey nobody really knows, right?) and with interest rates so low, and foreclosures and short sales rampant, it may make better financial sense to buy, hold for 3 yrs, then sell...

Then again, it depends on your tax situation, which nobody ever shares.

Anyway, just a thought from the other side of the fence. I've been telling more people lately to hang in there and not move than to move forward, but as I said, it depends on each persons unique situation. One size does not fit all.

;-) Paula Bean

Sat Mar 29 2008, 14:37

yes paula
point well taken
but the truth is
renting is safer and cheaper
the FL market is in free fall
nobody knows where the bottom is
you can always get out of a lease with minimal financial damage
you can't always get out of a house
i read somewhere the banks do not want
to loan money for any condos in FL
there was too much speculation
and Dan says he's not sure about staying long term
it seems the realtors take this as a personal attack
its not
its just the way the market is right now


anyways

good luck

Sat Mar 29 2008, 11:22

To Daniel:
So what did you end up doing? Inquiring minds want to know ;-)

To Hi just looking from VA:
yeah, 2 more thumbs down because you are giving biased advice. Sometimes it's best to rent, sometimes to buy, but you just gave an 'off the cuff' answer without knowing more details. Without regard to most of the agents advice who said 'rent first' I also have to mention another post made by Daniel, who defended himself as a Physcian who "could think".

Does that mean that real estate agents don't think, or don't care?
Have you ever seen a patient with no insurance and no money and still didn't care, Did an exam and ordered tests anyway? I'll bet not. Additionally, I'll bet anyone else who has a job would not go in to work when there is no guarantee of being paid, yet REALTORS do it EVERY DAY.

People may think agents are a bunch of 'uncaring people who just want to sell you something' but in my 30 yrs of experience I have to say that - yes, we all have our bad apples, but for the most part, I think we all really DO care, and we get our business from satisfied people, AND we do a lot of FREE work. So what's up with the bad reputation? Would YOU work for FREE like we do 80% of the time? My guess in NO. Still, we all try to help, just like giving advice on this forum makes us no money, it is all about trying to help.

NOW that we all understand where each other is coming from, WHY don't we try to act professional, give and get good advice, and play nice? Otherwise, there is a lot of other things we can all do with our time.

Sat Mar 29 2008, 10:53

2 more thumbs down for me ?

anyways

good luck

Sat Mar 29 2008, 09:51

Daniel,

This is a great time to buy but you do have to take into consideration that in three years you would not have paid much on the principle or gained much value in your home unless you got a very good deal. You may want to look at a Lease with an option to buy in 12 or 24 month. The option to buy will hold the purchase price at the current market price (todays price). If the market takes an up turn and the property appreciates 10% to 15% during the lease term you know you have a great deal but if the market continues to move in a downward trend you have the option to walk away. The seller may even grant you a percentage of the monthly lease towards your downpayment but keeps that if you don't take the option to buy. There are many lease with options to buy home in the Tampa Bay area right now. I wish you great success in your move to Tampa and hope you enjoy your stay. Let me know if there is anything I can do to help you.

Sat Mar 29 2008, 09:00

Hello Daniel,
Realtors thinks too......tangle with laws, offers, market trends, needs and desperate cases.
Realtors, do math, financials, laws and sometimes miracles to get their clients dream.
Realtors as a Doctor are "mostly" higly specialized and don't ask a butcher if the roof will rotten.......
No armas or offense, just a placid conversation as Trulia is meant to be, Foreclosure are everywhere and with an incredible new construction high inventory, a competitive market has been created, job laid-off is probably the biggest cause, rather than Tampa or Florida depreciating........
I'm personally confident that with the elections, low interest rate and the 1st (tax) amendement, 2009 superbowl and all Tampa has to offer, we'll be on the raise by June.
Mostly people is scared off by the economy, in fact 90% of the buying is made by Investors who bargain thanks to CA$H deals.
It's not a Realtor duty to "sell" sell, sell....... rather study the feasibility, according to the client needs and possibilities, properties are already on the raise... check it out, and some areas in Tampa still appreciate 3-5% a year...... only a mule would leave a Doctor throwing money down the drain by renting, I guess, an upscale house, did you verify rental rates?
Did you calculate taxes benefits? Depreciation........ and the benefits, saying: it's my House!
Once again I feel we're getting back on track, you'll watch and I'll be glad to share a glass of wine and see who did the right prediction.
You can tell when a market hits the bottom in 2 cases, either it's too late because prices are "ALREADY" rising or you have the christal ball.
In all the other cases a wise and knowledgeable person will analyze the trends, hystoric data, curbs and like Doctors preventing before cure it.
Remember everything has a cycle, NOTHING GETS CREATED, EVERYTHING IS TRANSFORMED!
I'll look forward to continue this conversation few months from now, if you so like, and bet you a bottle of wine :)
best regards, Antonio

Fri Mar 28 2008, 12:16

rent
no risk
and you can probably find a very nice rental for 1/2 the price of owning


anyways

good luck

Fri Mar 28 2008, 11:24

Hi Daniel,
Congratulations on your move to Tampa! I hope your move works out to be a profitable one. Job relocation moves can be tough since you are at the mercy of current market conditions in both areas. You may find you love Tampa so much, you might decide to pass on your next relocation offer.
I’m sending you a link to a rent vs. buy calculator at SmartMoney.com that you may find helpful in making you decision.

http://www.smartmoney.com/home/buying/index.cfm?story=rentown

If you decide you would like to buy, need help finding a rental, or have any questions about the area, feel free to give me a call at 813-230-5804. I have lived in zip code 33624 for the last 20 years (I’m also a northeast transplant!). Best of luck to you!

Fri Mar 28 2008, 05:59