Home Selling in 11792>Question Details

Danjay22, Renter in Smithtown, NY

what will my home be worth in 30 years?

Asked by Danjay22, Smithtown, NY Wed Jun 20, 2012

Help the community by answering this question:


The market will bottom during 2015 if the FRC holds steady to the current policy of 60 billion per month in mid term notes, and 40 billion per month in MBS purchases.

To find out what your home will be worth in 30 years is a heck of a formula. Here goes it:

1) Find out what your home was worth in 2001, and add 10% to that number.

2) Go to HUD's website and find the median household income or your area.

3) multiply that number by 2.6 (PTI multiple)

4) add the value of # 1 with # 3 and divide by 2.

5) The MBS forecast is -4% price depreciation annual as as average - or 8% until we hit the bottom in 2015.

6) So, minus 8% from the sum of number 4.

7) Until 2020 housing will remain flat while the inventory is cleared, and real property settles into historical price patterns, individual market fluctuation in both directions, but flat at 2020.

8) The days of stated income are over, so inflation + 1 is irrelevant because we cannot see true core CPI with the imaginary velocity created through FED policy (internal).

9) Housing prices will be tied to "real" wage growth, i.e.if bread is 5 bucks and the dollar buys less bread, real wages are tied to daily commodity pricing. So, if true wage growth is 1% annual - house prices will rise accordingly.

10) Since labor is still weak, and most of the jobs are going overseas, it would be fair to say that 1.5% real growth will remain through 2025, and thereafter it should increase to 2.2% annual through 2037, or the 12 year cycle of people. The remaining five years, until analysis maturity, will again show no growth as we cycle through attrition and the inabilty for most to retire.

Now, three things are sure, by 2043 I will have been chewing dirt for several years, maybe one of my children will still put some flowers on my grave for paying for their college and Trulia will have been our of business for 25 years if they do not start adding aps to their website.

More likely, at the rate we are compounding the 24 Trillion in debt (includes FED Balance Sheet), the BRIC nations will insist the dollar be removed as the reserve currency, and it will be devalued.

I you do not believe this can happen - you can join the naysayers who laughed when I told them in 2006 that the leverage ratio on bank assets was an average of 50, and that the MBS and credit markets would collapse under the weight of the maintenance on the counter-party swaps.

At the very least, DeMarco will be fired soon, banks will be forced to repatriate assets to their balance sheet, and recognize such using IASB Marks via BASEL III, and hopefully some of these unique folks will be indicted for this ponzi scheme, which surprisingly is only rivaled by social security.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon Nov 12, 2012
I think I love you, lol
Flag Fri Jan 2, 2015
Unfortunately none of us can predict the future.....however it will be worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it....
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 21, 2012
Wow. No way to answer with any sort of accuracy. It may be worth less than today or may be worth considerably more than it is today. Market fluctuations, location, condition, etc. will all play a role in value at that time.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 21, 2012
Hi, Historically homes tend to appreciate at roughly 4% annually. Nobody can project that far and obviously values have been down the last few years. If you are buying now and planning on holding it for 30 years you should see some return. The economy and your local housing market will really determine your value.

Christopher Pagli
Accredited Buyer Representative
Licensed Associate Broker
William Raveis Legends Realty Group
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 21, 2012
Hello Danjay:

A home will always have value it is an asset. we usually would conduct a current market analysis to determine your home market value for 2012. In 30 years you would simply have another analysis done. should you decide to list your home. I can be reached at 516-983-2320. The suffolk county area is my demographic.
Ibelle Casanas,CBR
Coach Realtors
Mt. Sinai, NY
icasanas@coachrealtors.com email
1 vote Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 20, 2012
That is a very difficult question to answer with accuracy. Normally we all expect homes to appreciate year over year but sometimes that is not the case. For instance, Q1 2007 the average home sale in the Township of Babylon (all the towns and villages that fall within Babylon Township) was $377,500. In Q1 2014 the average home sale was $277,800. As we all know a lot of things happened both on a national level and a local level within that time frame that affected home sales. With out being able to predict the future it is very hard to give an accurate figure. That being said, if anyone would like to know what their home would be worth in the current market please do not hesitate to contact me.

Nicholas Campasano
Licensed Real Estate Salesperson
Century 21 AA Realty
E: NickC@Century21aa.com
C: 631-848-6515
O: 631-226-5995 x206
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Feb 11, 2015
In my opinion, there is no way of predicting how much any home will be worth in 30 years. A lot can happen in such a long time frame. Market conditions are always changing. It would be nice to have a crystal ball, but none of us can predict where prices will be in 30 years.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Feb 4, 2015
If you buy your house for the average price in Suffolk County of $350,000 and pay $8,000/year in real estate taxes and after 30 years you have happily lived a full life there and get exactely what you paid for it, you will only have paid $1,638 per month. (not including interest). But it is an investment you can live in and even if you only come out square even, good for you!! Buy what you love and don't worry about the final numbers!!!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Aug 29, 2013
Probably more than today if standing!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
Here is your window to the future: Your home will be worth somewhere between $0 and 5000% more in 30 years.
Web Reference: http://www.archershomes.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
I see the west coast leaves ampleroomfor market fluctuation.
Flag Tue Nov 13, 2012
Guys and Girls, this is just for fun...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
@ De Vonte Willaimson,

Ok, lets try your test and we will apply the multiples I used to compare.


3 BR Ranch, 1 Bath, CAC, No FP, No Pool, Full unfinished basement, 2 car att garage, .50 acre, kitchen and baths 10 years old, house built in 1969, smithtown #1 schools.

The house was purchased at the peak in 2007 for $415,000.00.

The homeowner caught a nasty infection in her big-toe, and needs to have it lopped off before gangrene sets in fully, the doctor has noticed early tissue loss already. Due to this horrific series of events she will no longer be able to keep her job modeling beach sandals.

She is not sure if she should sell now, or in two years - There is no commission involved with the sale, so that varibale is removed from the scenario.

Should she sell now, what is the hosue worth today, and what will the house be worth in two years?

Professional opinions only...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
Hypothetically speaking--If she will no longer be able to keep her job she should sell now....why try to wait until the market shifts more in her favor if she may be in foreclosure at that time...As to the second question...I cannot tell you what the house is worth today--I have not seen it..
Flag Tue Nov 13, 2012
There is no such thing as an accurate 30 year formula in housing. It may offer some bragging rights for 29 years about how intelligent the author is, but it's essentially a joke. There are way to many variables for an accurate formula to exist over such a time span. Suppose you used the formula 30 years ago pertaining to the Rockaways? Think it will be accurate now? Buy a home you are happy with, at a price that's comfortable, in an area that you enjoy, and ive your life. None of us can predict or control future housing prices no matter how smart we are.
Licensed Real Estate Salesperson
Notary Public, Retired N.Y.P.D. Lt.
#1 Listing & Selling Brokerage in NY
Charles Rutenberg Realty, Inc.
255 Executive Drive - Suite 104
Plainview, New York 11803
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
Tom, the unknown variables have been removed as per the original question. Try to answer the question above. It only contains a two year time horizon and can be backed by factual data and an easy formula.
Flag Tue Nov 13, 2012
Good Morning. Any reputable Real Estate Consultant will not give you a prediction of the national Real Estate market years from now. There is no way of knowing the value of a home in a future market. The market we are in today, determines prices of today. Therefore, we cannot give you the home prices of 30 years from now, if we do not know the market of 30 years from now. I hope this explanation helped somewhat.

However, a local Real Estate Agent should give you an idea of what homes are going for now, what they have gone for in the past 10 years, and what they should be going for within the next 12 to 18 months. Real Estate Markets operate on a cycle which is based on supply and demand. The time frame between a high market and a low market is different in every State and neighborhood. I suggest you consult a local Agent for additional details.

I hope this answered your question! If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact me by the ways below.

Wishing you all the best,

De Vonte Williamson
Licensed Real Estate Salesperson
Proudly Serving Long Island
Coldwell Banker Residential
Mobile: (631)384-3695
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
Wow, Tenbips sure put a lot of thought into his answer, but I still say a crystal ball would be your best shot at an accurate answer to your question. Best of luck...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Nov 13, 2012
Baring nuclear war, rising waters on the East coast, the financial collaspe of New York, or the return of Jesus, I'd go with the historical rate of inflation, plus 1%. Christopher's answer of 4% is probably a good estimate, but no-one knows the future. 30 years ago Detroit was still a good place to invest in, wheras NYC was just beginning to recover from the population exodus of the 70's. Now, NYC is not cheap, and homes can be purchased for a $1 in Detroit.

My best advice is buy a home that you really like in a neighborhood you are comfortable in and that you could see living the rest of your life. If your house never appreciates greater than the inflation rate, and you have a mortgage of 4-5%, with the tax break you are essentially locking in the home price now and paying for it over 30 years. Pray that we don't go the way of Detroit, and any appreciation greater than the inflation rate will be gravvy.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 21, 2012
Nobody would have a clue.
For now, let's go with what you think it'll be worth.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 21, 2012
That depends on far too many as yet unocurred events. However I would be more than happy to give you my opinion on todays value :)
Tom Brady SFR, e-Pro, SRES, GREEN
Licensed Real Estate Salesperson
Notary Public, Ret. NYPD Lt.
"We treat you like family!"
Charles Rutenberg Realty, Inc.
255 Executive Plaza - Suite 104
Plainview, New York 11803
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 20, 2012
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