Home Selling in 94582>Question Details

Homeowner, Other/Just Looking in 94582

what price range should I expect for a 3500sf home in windermere built in 2007?

Asked by Homeowner, 94582 Mon Feb 15, 2010

When will be the best time to sell within next 12mns? Are demand for houses higher in the summer time and would that translate to possibly higher prices? If I decide to hold, how bad do you think San Ramon market can get? A house this size is a luxury not a necessity to me. Would it be a better move to cut my loses now to avoid possibly losing so much more within next 2yrs as numerous articles and bloggers are predicting?

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49
790k - 820k? Is that for a short sale or regular sale?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Apr 13, 2012
790,000 USD to 820,000 USD is what you should be looking for
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 12, 2012
windemere-brook, your bennginton way example, i guess that guy already lost 50k of his money. the same model is now for sale for 949k:

http://www.rockcliff.com/Search/PropDetail.aspx?listingID=12…

minus commission fees, they're already out of 100k...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun May 16, 2010
We all want to get the best and want to own more Windemere homes. Well, I aint selling mine until my kids finish high school so 3 properties at Windemere are not for sale for the next 17 years. Take them out of supply pool : )
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 22, 2010
Hello Hawkeye,
Nobody says that buying a house in Dublin is a bad ideal. It all comes to your personal preferences and affortablity. If you like the new neighborhood at Dublin and feel comfortable to get the $800k house with 4000 sqft, then you should grep it before the price goes up ( I believe that is your point of buying a house for). As for us, my wife doesn't want to have our house near the Bart or the correction center. We are praying that the Bart will never build through Windemere. If you ever live in New York city, you will know what type of people the subway brings to your neighborhood.

The following just my observation but can't say it reflect the overall house market.
A year ago, Shapell sold their Florentine plan 4 for 1.02 M while the list price is 1.13M and people have the choice to select which lot since so many of them are available. But now, people put their deposit for the pre-release lot site without finalize the price. I am not sure what the final price they will get. You can track the status but you don't need to since you are not interested at Windemere. Yes, there are many short sales at Windemere, but they also gone very fast. I was tried to get a good deal out of the downturn, but I was beated so badly by those rich people --). Let me know if you can help me find an excellent deal. I would love to get a second house at Windemere.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 22, 2010
Hawkeye is smart; otherwise he would have left this blog long ago. He is interested in Windemere, like many many others now and many more smart ones later. No more new homes at Windemere and most old ones are NOT going to sell for the next 10-15 years.

He needs to be brave : )
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
WB wrote: "Most high-end areas are build on the hills"

------------------

Totally agree! That's why Dublin's Fallon Village and Schaefer Ranch so appealing. Over 3000 new homes built in the Dublin hills. Fallon Village is being built in the low, rolling hills of Eastern Dublin, over looking the Dublin Valley. Schaefer Ranch is even better, built into the higher hills of West Dublin, tucked into an exclusive canyon area that will be connected to greater East Bay Regional Park System.

And both locations are much closer to the BART station. Or if driving, they avoid the 580/680 interchange which can add 20 minutes to an already longer commute to San Ramon.

If you want to buy new, the smart money is looking to Dublin, where large, brand new homes are more affordable and closer to the West Bay job centers.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
Tom,

Exactly. When it comes to real estate, my 25+ years of RE investing/ownership tells me location, location, location.

Windemere is on the hills with muti-level elevations. What that resulted is excellent views for most of the homes.

Most high-end areas are build on the hills: Mission San Jose-Fremont, Los Alto Hills, Oakland Hills, Saratoga.... Buy location and we shall see in 10 years. Another key ingredient: BEST SCHOOLS IN THE AREAS.

This is why there was a property on York Lane recently that got 33 offers.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
Tom, just to clarify, as compared to Windemere, Dublin will be building over 3000 brand new homes in the coming years. Just check out:

Fallon Village:
http://www.arounddublinblog.com/2008/03/fallon-village/

Schaefer Ranch (Shadow Canynon and Mesa Point):
http://schaefer-ranch.com

Windemere is almost completely built out and Gale Ranch has limited builds as compared to Dublin. So in Windemere, your only real option is a used home (even if it's "newer"). In Dublin, you can get a brand new, nearly 4000 square foot home for under $800K.

-H
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
Well, the school scores may be similar. But Windemere has all newer houses where as Dubline and Pleasanto have mixed old and new neighborhoods. The choice turns to your personal preferences again. You might feel that life is worth the money you spend on your house when you see the beautiful views of golf course everyday coming home other than see old/new mixture. Then stay at Windemere. Otherwise, Pleasanton, Dublin are also very good choices. The Fremond Mission new houses are pricing at 1.3M for 3000 sqft house. I am not sure if people bought those house complain that the price is inflated since people still buying.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
3500 SQ FT is $900K-$1M in TODAY's Windemere market.

One property had 33 offers recently and was sold almost $100K over asking.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Apr 21, 2010
Regarding schools, most of the schools in San Ramon, Pleasanton, Dublin, and Castro Valley are 9's or 10's on the great school rating, so there is nothing really special about San Ramon schools (other than the inflated housing prices).

Check for yourself:

Castro Valley (all 9's and 10's, Elementary thru high School):
http://tinyurl.com/yjuma2j

Dublin (all 9's and 10's, Elementary thru high School):
http://tinyurl.com/yznl2mg

Pleasanton (all 9's and 10's, Elementary thru high School):
http://tinyurl.com/yhjepz9

San Ramon (all 10's, Elementary thru high school):
http://tinyurl.com/yjzec7x

The difference between a 9 and a 10 is very small, so why over pay when a little parenting will do the trick!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 15, 2010
Somehow people all want the best and are willing to pay top $$$ for the best- sometimes irrationally.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 15, 2010
BTW, the reason Windemere properties are getting noticed is having the BEST high school in Danville, San Ramon, Dublin area with API of 900+

I heard next year API scores will be even higher. Get your properties now before they release the scores. Elementary school is already top in California.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 15, 2010
Latest example, 3563 York Lane, short-sell closed on 2/16/10 with 33 offers and sold for $982K. Many many other Windemere property all got at or exceeded asking with multiple offers.

Very difficult to get a Windemere property now with all the competing offers. Will continue to track and update latest examples with actual sales.

Good luck.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Apr 15, 2010
As posted below, there are literally over ONE THOUSAND homes in Windemere that were bought at the peak of the market using exotic loan products (e.g. Option ARMs) and that are set to recast this year. Soon, these owners will be faced with recast loans that will be up to twice the value of the home. Whoops, to bad for the investors!

Many investors claim to have made profits in the mid high range via the false bottom in 2009. However, if you look at all the sales at the bottom of the mid high range in the Windemere market and then run a comparative analysis on subsequent sales, the buy to sale spread (aka gross profit) is never more than around a $100K or so from 2009 to now.

Wow. When you factor in closing costs, sales taxes, capital gains, etc., the most these hapless market players could have possibly made by their flip is ~ $20K (aka net profit). In the same period, even a conservative stock market investment recommendation from a qualified financial advisor would have yielded far, far greater returns. And those returns would be at lower transaction costs and with much better liquidity .

Don't believe me? Just look at the charts for solid stocks like MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), Ebay (EBAY), Google (GOOG), Goldman Sachs (GS), Microsoft (MSFT), Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK-B), etc. Check it for yourself by punching in the stock symbols shown above and noting the price trends from 2009 to now:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ebay

Personally I don't know why any wise investor would enter the housing market in 2009 when the smart money was getting into the bottom of the stock market for solid, blue chip style companies that have since skyrocketed. And home flipping is quirky and complicated, whereas stocks are liquid; you press enter and bam...the sell executes and the cash is in your account. Compare that to house flipping, which in my opinion is the comparative equivalent of hog farming, as compared to raising thoroughbreds.

As I've always said, PT Barnum made a fortune knowing that "a sucker is born every minute". Don't be a sucker!

-H
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Apr 13, 2010
Paid $500K on REO back in Q2 2009. For sure the low low low.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 12, 2010
OK "windermere-brookfield" i think you have told everyone on these san ramon Q&A forums like 100x that you bought at the bottom of the market Q2 2009. congratulations. you are nostradamus. you timed it perfectly. i wish i were as smart as you and could be such a savvy real estate investor. in case i forget when the rock bottom of the market was, please post again at least daily or even several times daily to remind us all. Maybe you could make a sign at the entrance to the development that said "welcome to windermere, everyone paid too much for their home....except me!" and have a picture of your smiling face beaming at us all.

How bout this instead: next time you post about the most recent windermere sales to prove that the market is so strong, tell us how much profit the seller made on the transaction. Right. thats b/c nearly every home being re-sold in windermere is at a huge loss to the bank or the seller.

just b/c home prices have increased since Q2 2009, does not mean that the market is stable now and buyers should come running back into the market w/o fear of another dip.

Buyers would be better served looking at the macro-economic forces that brought the pricing so low in "Q2 09 - THE BOTTOM" and then compare those with the current/future forces and ask yourself if you are comfortable entering the market now or in the next 12 months.

maybe it would be wise to sit on the sidelines and rent for a little while to see how things play out...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 12, 2010
As I said many times before, low was Q2, 2009 and now Windemere-SR has appreciated 20-25% since then. Many of my friends took my advice and bought Windemere homes.

Latest example, 3563 York Lane, short-sell closed on 2/16/10 with 33 offers and sold for $982K. Could have had this for $800k in Q2 2009.

This 3500 SF home in Windemere is $950K-$1M in TODAY's market. Will continue to post latest sales data...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 12, 2010
As I have posted before, be very wary of entering the San Ramon mid to high range market. There are a huge number of homes that sold at the peak of the market, financed with exotic loan products that are set to recast this year, forcing buyer to decide to either sell short (or just walk away) or keep paying a mortgage that is twice the value of the home. This market has attracted investors, who are preying on unsuspecting buyers.
What are the facts?

The majority of five and three year exotic loans were written in 2005 and 2007, respectively. In the US, three of the top ten areas with the highest percentages of Exotic loans (>30% of loans) are in the Bay Area (including Contra Costa County). These loans were concentrated in the mid-high price ranges during the bubble ($850K - $1.2M), mostly in middle upper class planned communities such as Windemere. Roughly 94% of exotic loan holders have opted to make less than the minimum payment and roughly 80% now have negative equity (~ 60% with negative equity > $120K).

The bottom line is that even if these buyers can continue to afford to pay the mortgage on an underwater house that will soon recast to a very high interest rate, it doesn’t make sense to do so. Many of these folks are pursuing “strategic defaults”, opting to buy another home for much less money and then walking away from their current home. Since they have high incomes and can “buy down” to a bigger, less expensive home, the hit to their credit is not so bad considering the money they are saving.

Based on the percentages shown above, I surveyed the sales in Windemere's mid to high range between 2005 and 2007, noting sale prices that were significantly higher than the current market values. After crunching the numbers, there are well over 1,000 (yes ONE THOUSAND) homes that fit the high probability profile for strategic default in Windemere.

Take a look for yourself, be your own judge. Click on the link below and you'll see just a slice of the mid-high range Windemere sales. Start clicking on the houses and note how many were sold at the peak of the bubble (2005 - 2007).

http://tinyurl.com/yfxbdmh

Many of these buyers were likely pushed to accept exotic loans to close the deal, feeling that the ever increasing housing market would earn them instant wealth from equity. Instead, the market crashed and they are now facing Option ARM recasts that will more than double their payments for house that are worth much less than they paid. The investors will try to con you, post irrelevant comps, or bury this (and other) fact based posts with repetitive, sequential posts. But don't buy into it. Trust the research, do your own due diligence, and remember how PT Barnum made his fortune: a sucker is born every minute.

-H
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 12, 2010
New Update.

109 Durlington shows on Zillow as for sale but is already sold, for $977K. Saw the new owners moving in today, a very happy Chinese family. So from Q2 2009, this category has appreciated 20-25%. I called the low at Q2, 2009 on this board for months now and finally more real numbers are backing up my view.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/109-Durlington-Ct-San-Ramo…

Continue to update, two more were sold for $950K+ recently. We are back to $1M homes for these now...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 10, 2010
Perspective short-sell owners are backing out of prices agreed upon months ago and coming back asking for more, driving up prices further...

2357 Millenium lane sold for $580K and its only 1,578 SQ FT !!!! Low end of Windemere.

Good luck hunting.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Apr 4, 2010
BTW, the MD put 55% down on this property :) LOL
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Apr 4, 2010
Latest on Windemere near 3,500SQ home sales:

3658 Stonehenge Way, 3,474 SQ FT sold for 953K on 1/31/10, a MD bought it. Prices on Zillow are underpriced by around $50K to actual demand.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/3658-stonehenge-way,-san-ramon,-ca_rb/

Demand is strong across the board and there is no REO in Windemere now, zero, all short-sells that are very competitive. Good luck...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Apr 4, 2010
Here are the (nearly 90) homes that have been pending in San Ramon for more than 60 days, the majority of which are short sales.

http://tinyurl.com/yg2t3pr

These homes locked in low interest rates when they went pending, however those rate locks typically expire after 45 or 60 days. Now that the MBS program has expired and interest rates have skyrocketed for the mid high range, these buyers will have to re-qualify for the loans at a much higher rate (once their rate lock expires).

For example, a $950K home w/ 20% down under the previously low interest rates would have had a payment of around $4400; however, now that payment will be around $5100. Same exact house, but now it will cost the buyer $700 more each month because of the interest rate increase.

Many of the buyers of these pending homes will not be able or willing to pay the extra amount and if they don't close before their rate lock expires, the deal will fall through on the financing contingency and the house will come back on the market. The only other option would be to lower the price to the level of payment the buyer previously could qualify for; in the above example, the seller would have to drop the price over $100K to keep the deal alive.

So, all these pending homes will either be selling at much lower comps or coming back onto the market at much lower prices. And this is the effect of just one government policy expiring (MBS program); imagine what will happen when the others expire - Federal tax credit expires next, on April 30th.

More inventory, less qualified buyers = more downward pricing pressure for Windemere. It will only get worse as we approach the summer buying season andmore homes come onto the market.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Apr 4, 2010
Another Windemere home, 207 Latera Ct, listed for $675K, sold for $740K+ Wow, very strong demand. Back in Q2, 2009 I bought 4K SQ Ft homes at Windemere for low $800K's . The rich are moving in this neighborhood and many of them have little or no mortgages.

http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/How_much_is_this_ho…

How times have changed. Demand has been very strong since late 2009.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 3, 2010
Another Windemere closed on 3/18/10 for:

$1.005M, 3,617 SQ FT, 6530 Bennington Way, San Ramon, built in 2007, 2 days on the market !

Again, could have bought thru REO similar property back in Q2 2009 for $800K's. So Homeowner's house is worth $950K-$1M in TODAY's Windemere market.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 3, 2010
Another Windemere closed on 3/18/10 for:

$1.005M, 3,617 SQ FT, 6530 Bennington Way, San Ramon, built in 2007, 2 days on the market !

Again, could have bought thru REO similar property back in Q2 2009 for $800K's. So Homeowner's house is worth $950K-$1M in TODAY's Windemere market.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 3, 2010
As predicted, mortgage rates have sky rocketed after Thursday's end to the Government's $1.25 Trillion dollar campaign to buy Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). With no "real" investors interested in buying these high risk, low rate mortgages, the only way to try and attract MBS buyers is to offer significantly higher interest rates.

As predicted, the program will not be re-newed.

Literally overnight, the price that folks could afford for Jumbo loans has dropped ~ 15%. This directly impacts the Windemere market, where prices remain inflated as compared to inflation adjusted baselines. Unless prices come down to offset the increased mortgage costs, a significant percentage of home buyers in the Windemere market will be looking elsewhere to buy. If this happens, prices will have to drop anyway, to lure folks back into that market. Either way, there is growing downward pricing pressure on the San Ramon market and especially Windemere.

Next to go will be the federal tax credit, which expires on April 30th. Since this credit only applies to homes $800K or lower and in light of increased interest rates, there will be significant incentive to reduce prices below $800K during the next 30 days, in order to attract folks whose only remaining incentive is this credit. This will further pressure the mid high range market to drop down to the $800K point (or below). Probably see lots of homes selling for $799K. ; -)

With 80% of option ARMS more than 20% underwater and the first wave of the recasts coming in May, I reiterate a very bearish perspective on San Ramon prices through the Q4 of CY2010. Once all the government polices have expired and the option ARMS start recasting, combined with higher interest rates, inventory will rise and prices will fall.

Happy Easter!
Web Reference: http://www.redfin.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 3, 2010
Another Windemere closed on 3/18/10 for:

$1.005M, 3,617 SQ FT, 6530 Bennington Way, San Ramon, built in 2007, 2 days on the market !

Again, could have bought thru REO similar property back in Q2 2009 for $800K's. So Homeowner's house is worth $950K-$1M in TODAY's Windemere market.

Only the financially strong are able to get a property at this community.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
In both cases their kids go to smart schools : )
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
I know the investor who bought at $800k is smart. But not sure about the person who bought it for 980k. He may not be a sucker, but definitely he is less smart.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
Bigger sucker is not buying similar property back in Q1 2009 for $800K. LOL Another sucker is dreaming that this property will be $700K anytime soon.

Somehow the rich are always the suckers lol...... laughing all the way to the bank.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
LOL, the York Lane property was an REO that sold at nearly a $300K loss:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/3563-York-Ln-94582/home/2107840

Again, a sucker is born every minute...
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
Numbers dont lie, 3563 york lane, San Ramon, just sold for $982K. There ARE people with money who are supposely smarter that are buying and buying quick.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/york-lane,-san-ramon,-ca_rb/#/ho…

One of the firefigher Windemere neighbors just sold their house for $950K+ in one week! These are homes that were $800K back in Q2 2009, the low. I have no problems renting out my Windemere properties at a premium. Good, educated renters do not mind paying $3K/month for good schools for their kids.

Best time to buy was Q2 2009, wait another 10 years for another dip?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 31, 2010
In San Ramon and Windemere, inventory is up, comps are down, lots of foreclosures in the pipeline, tons of pending sales that can't close...all this means prices will continue to go down.

Here's the current inventory, which has skyrocketed from 16 in December to 85: http://tinyurl.com/yzluu2v

And the foreclosure pipeline has nearly 100 properties:
http://tinyurl.com/yc6pogu

And here are the comps for last week, not a single home sold for over $800K:
http://tinyurl.com/yla4auf

And more scary, there is a huge backlog of pending short sales, less than half of which will actually close escrow (most go REO). Here's a the pending sales, click a few and note how many are shorts that haven't closed in months:
http://tinyurl.com/yffm3yc

And this graph shows the coming wave of Option ARM recasts. Five year Option ARMS were used for the majority of Windemere purchases made in 2005/2006, at the peak of the bubble. They are recasting this year and those folks will be either selling short or just walking away from their homes.

Here's the option ARM recast schedule: http://tinyurl.com/yjq5s5g

Looks like we are heading into a double dip on housing prices as reported today in the NY times. Smart money would wait until the trend is validated before buying into over priced San Ramon.
Web Reference: http://www.redfin.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 30, 2010
Too many rich people buying in Windemere. No more REOs like 2009. Short sells have buyers lining up around the block. Too bad not many can afford to put down $400K on a house. Many sellers are backing out on short sells because pricing is going up.

How times have changed.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Mar 11, 2010
The education budget cuts are needed to fund outrageous gov't pension costs. CNBC just said that a San Ramon firefighter's annual pensions is $280k far greater than his $221k annual salary when he was working!!!

http://calpensions.com/2009/08/27/local-pensions-whos-mindin…
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Mar 11, 2010
Regarding housing market, it all finally come to these common factors, Jobs, Jobs and Jobs. Unless we experience another round of huge wave of layoff, it will be no another big leg down for housing market. However, on the other hand, unless we enjoy a healthy strong job growth, we won't see much appreciation either. Bottom line, the housing market will stay flat for a long time from now. If you missed the last year's bottom, it won't come back again. But, it is no rush to make a purchase neither. Be patient, you will find a place suitable to you at reasonable price. Never Never make a purchase decision basing on emotion. A good school is an or may the most important factor to support house price. However, there are many other factors also. A good school can only support certain amount of premium. Do not overpay just because it has a good school.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 10, 2010
Fiolibuyer,

Reserves in SR are good ($34M), but the city is running a deficit and will have to tap ~ $1M of those reserves this year, which on an adjusted bases is really ~ $2M (normalizing for one time events and favorable varience on property taxes).

In 2008 there were 543 mortgage defaults in SR, but in 2009 that rose over 150% to 825 defaults. That number will continue to rise as the Option ARM loans begin to recast, this year. A stunning 35% of mortgages in the Tri Valley area (including Windemere) are underwater and over 20% of those are more than 25% underwater (considered the "walk away" threshold). Option ARMS were the principle financing mechanism for the majority of SR homes purchased during the peak of the bubble and most of those loans were written as five year ARMS in 2005 and 2006; they will be recasting in the next 18 months.

And the last thing the city wants to do is start auctioning off homes to pay for back taxes, as they will be going up against the banks that own those homes, as well as undermining already faltering housing prices by fostering low ball auction prices. What they need are buyers for those homes, but the state of the economy is not supporting demand in San Ramon; even more so now that Chevron just announced that they will be laying off 2000 people (their HQ is SR).

SR is a risky market right now and Windemere has the most risk for the area. Folks should know what they are getting into before considering a purchase.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Mar 10, 2010
Hi Hawkeye,

Regarding People not paying taxes etc. If some one does not pay Mello roos for more than 6 months, Mello Roos allows to auction off the property. Taxes a little more time..
So not paying taxes is not issue. Falling house values and accordingly taxes is issue.
For the bonds on these public schools which went in as Mello Roos are fixed rate values.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 9, 2010
Addie,

Many of the posters in these and other forums have said that the SR public schools are the main reason they bought or were considering buying in Windemere, so this is very much a local issue. Thousands of families have been willing to suffer long commutes and pay a significant premium for homes in Windemere, because of the promise of a quality public school system. Without it, they could have gotten similar homes in other locations for much less and sent their kids to private school.

Regarding shifting demographics, the largest increase in rental population are the subprime folks who lost their homes when the subprime market collapsed. These are folks who, during the few years they enjoyed highly leveraged homes that were beyond their means, grew used to the increased standard of living. Now they are looking to replicate that standard, which they can easily do in upscale areas like Windemere, where high end properties are renting at all time lows. Why live in East Oakland when you can pay roughly the same amount to live in Windemere?

"...the eye that alters, alters all..." --William Blake
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 9, 2010
Hawkeye, you raise 2 new issues specifically just for the Windemere area:

(1) insufficient revenue for schools/amenities –
In regards to this issue, I suppose for you none of the California schools have budget challenges currently. For you, even the Piedmont unified school district and all the way to the San Marino Unified school district are immune to such crisis. You may want to verify facts before coming to a conclusion or rather before raising an issue that actually applies to numerous schools not only in California but in other states as well. For people who are concerned about budget challenges, maybe moving to North Dakota or Montana are good choices considering these states have no reported budget gaps.

(2) shifting demographics due to cheaply priced rentals –
What exactly do you mean by shifting demographics? Families that moved out of San Ramon because their property was sold under a short sale or foreclosure cannot actually afford the home in the first place. I cannot see any difference between the aforementioned family and a family moving in paying for a cheaply priced rental. To me, they look like they belong to the same household income bracket. In fact, the latter may even be better off financially and just prefer to allocate a smaller budget to their housing expenses.

Maybe you are referring to the demographic of supposed tony neighbors wearing $1,000++ purses driving 5 series Beemers even if they cannot afford mortgage payments being replaced by neighbors wearing Target outfits and driving Honda Accords who for all you know have a 6 digit positive net worth?

"...What is essential is invisible to the eye." --Antoine de Saint-Exupery
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 9, 2010
Windemere is melting down. Click the links in my post below. Inventory is up, prices are down, nearly every home is a short sale. And the number of pending short sales that haven't closed in months is huge; nearly all of these will likely become foreclosures in the next three to four months, just as the summer seasonal inventory increases. Add in all the option ARMs that are coming due this year and Winderere is a very risky market to buy into right now.

Two new issues that I'm hearing about are shifting demographics and insufficient revenue for schools / amenities. Many of the underwater homes are turning into cheaply priced rentals, which is attracting a very different kind of demographic into the community. And rumor has it that all the stalled sales and empty homes are causing a shortfall on planned tax revenue, making it increasingly difficult to fund all those top schools and great community amenities. Some fear Windemere will become the next Brentwood, once the Option ARMS start recasting.

Scary.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Mar 9, 2010
Homeowner, be very wary of the Windemere market between now and Q4 of 2010. Resale inventory is way up from a low of just 16 properties in Dec (now ~ 70):

Here's the current inventory: http://tinyurl.com/yzluu2v

But the foreclosure pipeline has over 120 properties:

Here's the foreclosure pipeline: http://tinyurl.com/yc6pogu

And more scary, there is a huge backlog of pending short sales, less than half of which will actually close escrow (most go REO).

Here's a the pending sales, click a few and note how many are shorts that haven't closed in months:
http://tinyurl.com/yffm3yc

And this graph shows the coming wave of Option ARM recasts. Five year Option ARMS were used for the majority of Windemere purchases made in 2005/2006, at the peak of the bubble. They are recasting this year and those folks will be either selling short or just walking away from their homes.

Here's the option ARM recast schedule: http://tinyurl.com/yjq5s5g

Add in the expiration of the tax credit and the MBS low interest program and you have a perfect storm of high summer inventory with low demand. With this kind of pressure, I would expect prices to go down.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Mar 5, 2010
Homeowner,
The specific price depends on a number of factors, if you want real specifics I would be happy to run some numbers for you. There are some strong comps in that range and I don't think selling would be a problem. Candidly, I recently sold my home in Windemere for very similar reasons you are talking about. I was concerned about where we would be in the next 12-24 months and I wanted to cut my losses and get out before it got worse. I must say that I am really glad I did that. The inventory in low right now so houses are selling quickly and prices are stable. Like the others said, I would favor selling now rather than waiting. I am expecting the market to experience another lull and unless you want to ride through it I would consider selling now. No one know how bad it will get. Happy to help.
Best,
Erica

Erica Jones Starkey
Broker, Co-Founder
JSCA Real Estate Group
Providing Superior Solutions for Your Individual Real Estate Needs
Web Reference: http://www.jscarealty.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Feb 21, 2010
Hello Homeowner,

There is a tremendous amount of data on San Ramon and specifically Windemere home sales and median home prices on http://www.VickieSellsHomes.com

The Windemere monthly market report archives may be found at http://vickiesellshomes.com/category/san-ramon-ca/san-ramon-…

and the Market Dynamics reports for San Ramon may be found at http://vickiesellshomes.com/category/san-ramon-ca/market-dat…

No registration is required to access this data. However, you may find it beneficial to sign up for monthly updates at http://windemerehomevalues.info/

Respectfully,
Vickie Nagy
Keller Williams Realty
(925) 407-7987
CA DRE#01363932
Web Reference: http://www.VickieNagy.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Feb 16, 2010
I'm with Scott on this one. You will see lots of gloom and despondency about home prices taking another dip in other Trulia threads but people forget how local real estate is.

Sure, real estate prices may take another hit in some locations, even perhaps in other parts of Contra Costa. San Ramon has such good schools and there are so many buyers out there chasing insufficient inventory that the market looks pretty solid.

I'm not predicting much in the way of price increases though. I think they will stay where they are through 2010. And don't worry about the banks flooding the market with foreclosed homes. Even if they were organized enough to cope with the volume they have, I don't think they would be that stupid. A flood of homes could depress the market so why would they do that to their own assets.

Of course all any of us really know for sure is where the market is now. I could be wrong in the above assumptions. If you have decided to sell anyway, why wait? You know there are tons of buyers looking for homes in Windemere.

Good luck to you.

Bernard Gibbons

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Bernard Gibbons, Realtor, e-PRO Certified Internet Specialist, DRE License # 01331583
J. Rockcliff Realtors, 15 Railroad Avenue, Danville, CA 94526
Phone (925) 997-1585
bernard@bernardgibbons.com

See all homes for sale in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties
at http://www.BernardGibbons.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Feb 16, 2010
Hi there. Here is a link to some sold comps. http://MAXEBRDI.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=b26485…

Inventory right now is very low and houses are moving quickly. There is endless speculation about what the future holds. Talk of more bank foreclosures flooding the market, rising interest rates, the bad economy. Nobody knows really. Right now, it's a sellers market like we haven't seen for a long time, so for this reason I like now rather than the uncertainly of later if you really want or need to sell.
Personally I feel we've hit bottom, so if it was me, I wouldn't really worry about the market going down much further. It's a risk I would take. Also depends on your own situation. Are you going to be in the area for awhile? can you afford the payments? if so, I vote for you stay where you are. Just one Realtors opinion.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Feb 15, 2010
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