Yes, homes in most areas of the country (and I'd include Plano) will sell. The market will recover. There are a few areas--for example, certain areas around Detroit and elsewhere in Michigan, as well as some in other areas of the Midwest--where I'm not so sure the market will ever recover. Or at least not for 20-30 years. But those areas of really deep depression, coupled with a significant loss of jobs, are fairly rare.
There are plenty of other areas--parts of California, Nevada, and Florida--that are probably far worse off than Dallas. And California, Nevada, and Florida will all recover. I'm not saying this year, and I'm not saying next year. But they will.
The question is one of timing. I'll defer to any agents familiar with Dallas and the surrounding areas. But prices have already strengthened in some areas--Northern Virginia (where I am) being just one. I'd say 2-3 more years in areas that weren't terribly hard hit when the bubble burst. And I'd say 5-6 years in the harder-hit areas.
There is a school of thought suggesting that things will get worse once the tax credit ends. That could be correct. However, to the extent that prices may decline some, it'll make home prices even more affordable. The real driver, though, won't be the tax credit. And it won't be much else directly related to real estate. Instead, it'll be the whole employment situation in the United States. If unemployment drops from the current 10% down to 7% or so (which may take a few years), that'll help greatly. Plus, in addition to the unemployment numbers, there's also a question of consumer confidence. Even though most people have jobs, and most people won't lose them, right now there is substantial fear about the possibility of job loss or job cutbacks. People have to feel confident again before they'll be ready to go out and buy.
There are some other factors involved, too--such as the rate of inflation and the cost of money. Inflation is likely to rise, and the Fed at some point will feel the pressure to raise interest rates to try to slow down inflation. That'll depress the housing market.
There's also the fear that banks are holding back on releasing many foreclosures back onto the market and that--once they do--that'll depress housing values.
So, what's that all mean? Short-term, slow improvement, especially in areas that weren't too hard hit when the bubble burst. Medium-term, continued improvement so long as the unemployment rate continues to fall. But there will be a number of forces--inflation, higher interest rates, release of foreclosed homes--that will slow down a housing recovery.
I know that's not the definitive prediction you may be seeking, but I think it's a realistic view . . . even if it is from a Realtor!
Hope that helps.
Sorry you are buying into the media hype about the market. When I get called to list a home in Plano, I hang up the phone and say 'WOO HOO! PLANO!!' The only problem I have with Plano listings is that I typically sell them before I can get much advertising time for my for sale signs. I don't hate to be the bearer of great news that you are the one with the unrealistic view of the Plano market. Either that, or you own an absolute 'piece' of a home in regard to condition and don't want to spend any money to get it ready to sell. You can keep trying to say it's bad here, but we know otherwise. Your house is in our office - Plano, Texas - and we can sell Plano all day, every day and twice on Sunday. If you doubt us, give any of us your listing and let us spend our time and our money proving you wrong.
Ronda Allen, Realtor and Certified Purchasing Manager
CEO of comingsoonhomes.com
RE/MAX Dallas Suburbs
In my opinion Plano homes are selling....but you are right...they have to be in good condition and priced right.
I believe you are also right that things can change after April. If the tax credit gets wiped out and if Freddie and Fannie stop buying mortgages, interest rates will increase significantly. We also haven't seen inflation yet, but with all the $ the Fed pumped into the system, inflation will like increase at some point. The good news is that we don't see a lot of foreclosures in Plano. Average prices have fallen in Plano about 5% in the past 12 months. Even within Plano though some neighborhoods remain pretty hot, while others are not.
Probably the biggest problem for you or for us is that we just can't predict very well the future. Who knows where unemployment will be at the end of the year. Who really knows if Freddie and Fannie stop buying mortgages. Who knows what interest rates private investors will demand if they do. Who knows what kind of crazy schemes anyone in our government will come up with? Who knows what inflation will do? Who knows if there will be another 9/11?.....any one of these factors and many others could put a stop to home purchases or some other factor could influence people to buy.
If you want to sell, hanging on for prices to improve I don't think is always the best strategy. How do you know if they will ever improve? How do you know they will not get worse? We also have pretty high carrying costs in Texas with high insurance and tax rates. If you really want to sell there is typically never a better time than now.
If you would like to keep track of prices in your neighborhood, follow our Market Snapshot link below. It's a neat FREE tool available to you.
Keller Williams Realty
I get your frustration with trying to sell a house from such a great distance. You do not mention the price of your home or the location within Plano so I cannot be specific but in the last 6 months in all of Plano (which is a large area as you know) there have been 852 sales between $100,000-250,000, 287 sales between $250,000-350,000, 126 sales between $350,000- 450,000 and 43 sales between $450,000-550,000.
You can see the pattern here, the higher the price the sales decrease. If you have a home that requires a jumbo loan (any loan amount over $417,000) the market has definitely been hard hit. On the flip side, if you have a home that falls within the $8000 home buyer credit range (somewhere under $417,000 due to income restrictions) you have a large buyer pool right now.
It would be a shame to miss this opportunity of low interest rates, low housing prices, and ample buyer pool. if there was ever a time to try to get your home sold it is now.
Let me know if I can provide any further assistance.
Mary Beth Harrison
The Harrison Group
Keller Williams Realty
1-866-433-5678 toll free
Contact me anytime if you would like to discuss your options.
Valarie DeLaCruz Littles
Realtor, SFR, eCertified 2.0 Â®
Web Site: http://www.dlproperties.net
Phone: (214) 810-5135
Fax: (877) 388-1260
Deals are moving so fast in TX, that some of my friends (also investors) have temporarily moved there (especially in DFW, McAllen, Houston, and Austin). Even some of the properties in some of the surrounding counties (Collin, Jefferson, etc) are moving relatively quickly.
Paddy Coppin, Elle Realty
In past 6 monts 1,466 homes have sold in Plano
DOES not include
a) New construction not posted in MLS
Home sales were up to $3.5 million over 250 homes sold from $305K and up
244 Plano homes sold per month
8 closing per day
Currently there are 230 homes waiting close on the market
Hope that assists you
National Featured Realtor and Consultant, Texas Mortgage Loan Officer, Credit Repair Lecturer
Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Lynn911
All the Best!!!
Virginia Cook Realtors
I'm not sure I'd agree with your foreclosure rate per capita statement, particularly as it relates to the Plano market. Plano homes are selling. In fact sales in Dec. 09 were up 11.1% over the same time last year AND median sales prices were up 4.5% per CCAR stats. Now it's hard to say whether the tax credit is driving this increase in the market. My thought is that buyers are feeling more confident about getting back into the market now that the mortgage industry has stabilized. That, combined with low interest rates and and a rebound in the stock market, seem to be what's driving things rather than just the tax credit.
Frankly the best way to get a feel for what your property would sell for and how long it would take would be to have a comparative market analysis done. We go back to anywhere from 4 to 6 months of sales history in your specific subdivision/neighborhood and evaluate the data, then compare your homes features and conditions against those properties that have already sold and those that are active. It's not magic - it's a combination of data analysis and professional knowledge of the market.
I concur with Roxanne and can also say 2009 was one of my best years yet so things are not as gloomy as you might think!
If you'd like more information I'd be happy to visit with you further. You can contact me at 469-450-1326.
The Brooks Team, Keller Williams
Great Question! In the north Texas market this past year, my team and I had our best year in number of transactions. I helped 67 buyers find homes and 106 sellers get their homes sold. I will say that my average sales price was not as high this past year as the year before, but it was down only about 5%. I have been a Plano realtor for the past 35 years. I have seen the market much worse in the 80's. The good thing to understand is that interests rates are very key right now, as well as the tax credits being given by the government. These two items are key motivators to buyers. Homes values have not risen that much in the north Dallas area so they haven't fallen that far as well. Our inventory of homes is still very good and since builders have cut their spec building many people are looking at resale homes. I would tell people to put their home on the market now because of these reasons. You are correct about the government going to stop buying mortgage back securities or at least we think that is going to happen around March or April. This could effect interest rates, however I do not believe it will effect them significantly. If interests rates go up 1 point it will be extremely favorable even during this time. However, now is the time for buyers to look at homes to get the most value based on current conditions.
If I were selling my home, I would want it on the market now and not later. In the 80's Texas was the no#1 foreclosure state and interest rates were 19%. We are 29th in foreclosures filings and the interest rates are below 6%. Based on these numbers alone, I think it is a good time to buy and sell.
I hope my answer helps and if you would like more information, please don't hesitate to contact me.