Here is the info from the Long Island Board of Realtors for March 2009.
http://links.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2009/0309.pdf
Wouldn't it be great to have that data available for the Hamptons as well?

Right Brain,
I don't disagree that there are owners here who have their head in the sand, and that's frustrating for us too, but if they can afford to wait until the market catches up with them, they will, and that is their prerogative. You know that already. However, current sold data here shows that for roughly every two closings (residential, land, commercial and partial interest sales), there is another property going into pre-foreclosure (Lis Pendens). It's inevitable therefore that many buyers will not be dealing directly with an owner, but with a bank, which is not the same game. You can easily get that data for yourself, only the newly under contract data might not be so accessible without help from someone locally.

I can't speak for the South Fork Hamptons, because I don't track it as closely as the North Fork, and I don't know where you are getting your data from, but I can assure you that prices here have dropped significantly and dramatically on mostproperties. Some are now about half price from 2 years ago, and I am including REO ( bank owned) homes in that group. One home I know in Aquebogue, the bank has indicated they would be willing to take about 50% of the unpaid principal and interest - a drop of +/- $300K on a $650K home. The neighbors are shocked!

If you're interested in more detailed information about the volume increase of homes going under contract and don't have access to it, feel free to contact me offlist with your requirements. If memory serves, you're interested in buying on the South Fork only, not the North Fork? If so, then you'd probably be better off asking someone there to do it, but I could certainly run whatever numbers if you're also considering the North Fork. By the way, I am not saying prices have reached bottom, I don't know that they have, but with volume increasing, that's a positive indicator that the downward movement may be slowing, stopped, or about to reverse direction, but I am not seeing anything clearly enough to know that yet and I don't think anyone else is either.

Best,
Joanna

Everyone expected a Spring increase in volume which we are having, but increase over what? The 62% drop in 1st quarter sales?

Everywhere I go in the Hamptons I still see sellers who bought a house in the last few years for X and now believe that its worth 2X. Generally they believe that the house was earning more than they were.

There are buyers everywhere, the first thing they do is look up the previous sale, if its higher than 2003, they keep stepping.

North Fork volume is increasing in terms of contracts in the last few weeks. This is not yet reflected in sold data as they have not yet closed. The normal cycle has always been that the lowering of interest rates means a rise in prices and a rise in interest rates mean prices go down. The current dynamics are unprecedented in my lifetime in that we now have low interest rates combined with low prices. How long do you think this is going to last?

City council has predicted a very grim outlook for the anticipated fiscal year of 2010. Will this be the bottoming out of the market? No one knows for sure. Everything I have closed on is at least 50K lower than asking on average. With the government lowering the mortgage rates, tax incentives and the lower than average property values it's a great time to buy.

Will the prices go lower than now?
Probably.
As for property going back down to late 90's prices, I don't see it happening.

Why take my advice?
I'm out there everyday, not behind a desk.


Luke Constantino
Commercial | Residential
RE/MAX @ THE SLOPE
Direct: (212) 300-3919 | Fax: (360) 368-0098
http://LukeConstantino.com

Michael brings up a good point, there are micro markets within markets. NYC and the Hamptons have been remarkably resilient, and not moving at all with the rest of the country: the booky makes money whether the horse wins or loses and such is our main Wall St. business. However now that business is gone, so why aren't the Hamptons adjusting? No volume and massive inventory. Rich people can wait?

Is the glass half full or half empty... all data can be construed as one wants to view it.... however markets are different...

We still believe that a home that is presented in the best possible light, priced correctly, and marketed correctly will sell.

Realtors who just don’t want to do the work, and home owners who want to believe that their home is worth 2 xs their neighbors tend to be the ones who sit around complaining how bad the market is.

Time will tell, eh?
here's a question for you:
How do you distinguish between
Manhattan
The Boroughs
Westchester
Long Island , and
The Hamptons
in a call like that? Those 6 areas are often combined together in a "New York market".

Some of the boroughs, Queens and Brooklyn are reportedly on fire.
First time home buyers are coming out of the woodwork.