Home Selling in 98075>Question Details

Margaret, Home Seller in 98075

What is the real estate prognosis for greater Seattle. Is it expected to rebound or continue down.?

Asked by Margaret, 98075 Thu Feb 4, 2010

I see the market has been at a downward trend for awhile. What is happening nationally and will Seattle be able to follow the recovery or lag behind?

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No one really knows the answer to this question. Any prognostications that you may here are really just that persons best guess. The experts I have heard from predict the downward trend to continue in greater Seattle for the next few months but expect to see slight gains by the end of the year. But within the region (Seattle) there are already signs of prices leveling out and in some cases slight gains.

See this article in today's Seattle Times: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/201…
Web Reference: http://www.HomeHounds.com
2 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Feb 5, 2010
We are seeing a substantial uptick in buyer activity in the last two weeks throughout Seattle and the East Side. While prices are not expected to rise in the foreseeable future, homes that are priced right and ready to sell are seeing multiple offers. With interest rates low, great tax incentives, and home prices at or near prices in 2005, buyers are jumping off the fence and ready to buy.
Web Reference: http://www.annizilz.com
1 vote Thank Flag Link Fri Feb 5, 2010
Hi Margaret,

Some great comments by everyone below. We are seeing sale pick up right now across the board, and Sammamish is included in that. One long term concern about the recovery is the new HAFA program. This program is designed to make it easier for Short Sales, however it also has elements designed to incourage many people who are more than 20% upside down in their home to do a Short Sale and even offers the seller compensation for doing this. So here is the potential for many more people to decide to do a Short Sale and place their homes on the market at continued lower prices.

You can zoom into any neightborhood from the website below and see the active homes in your are and then click the Sold icon and see what homes are actually closing for in your neighborhood too. That will help you.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Apr 26, 2010
Dear Margaret,

I just read an article written by Mathew Gardner of the Daily Journal of Commerce. Here are a couple of summary thoughts I gained from that article. Seattle is in its fourth downturn since the 1940s. Three of those downturns were caused by business cycles. This current downturn has been caused by the huge volume of sub prime loans, which grew to 25% of all loans.

We have seen a 25% decrease in price across Puget Sound. Seattle is expected to recover before many cities and job growth is expected before many cities. The recovery will start in King County and move out to other counties with King County as the center of that expansion.

The Seattle area has started on our path to recovery and the key issue remaining is how judiciously the banks release their "real estate owned" property. Most of what I have read indicates the banks will release their inventory gradually. Logically, why would they flood the market and reduce their own inventory values?

The most important question for you, personally, is where do you want to go and when? You make your money in real estate on your "buy" so look at the niche market where you are planning to move. If you happen to owe more on your current house than what your house is worth and have no moving plans, it really doesn't matter what current values are, because in a few years your value will go back up. Most trends last seven years on average and we started this current trend in 2006.

Some neighborhoods in King County are currently experiencing a two and three month supply of inventory, which means prices in those areas are likely to start increasing. I see you live in Zip code 98075. The plateau has experienced 20+% year over year increase in number of sales from March, 2009 to March, 2010.

If you want to see charts that exemplify what is happening in the Puget Sound Region, go to my website, http://www.karenmcknight.com and click on Market Statistics on the left. Or, contact me, as I have lots of data to demonstrate the market trends.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Apr 24, 2010
Hi Margaret,
Reports indicate that inventory is down and sales are up. These reports are based on area wide statistics. If you are planning to sell and are concerned about price, you must remember that each subdivision or area is unique. How many short sales or foreclosures are in your specific area that may influence the price? What are the amenities in your specific area that may increase the price or be a negative factor? These questions and similar ones need to be answered by a Realtor that is familiar with your home and your neighborhood. Trends and graphs are great indicators but you need more information to accurately price your home.
Web Reference: http://www.joanprobala.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Apr 23, 2010
Hi Margaret,

According to Moody's, Seattle is in the top five of metropolitan areas to recover. Moody's predicted a .5% decline in prices in 2010, so if that is true the significant drops we saw in 2008 and 2009 are behind us.
If you go to my website, http://www.karenmcknight.com and click on Market Statistics, you will find a link to some very informative graphs that will give you great insight. I recommend viewing the 10 year graph.

I was fortunate to hear the Washington state economist speak at a meeting when Realtors visited with our state legislators. He predicted that we wouldn't be fully recovered until 2011. Now that is the entire state.

Because the federal government is stopping it's purchase of mortgage backed securities at the end of March, the prediction is that interest rates will go up 1%. A 1% increase in interest rates could slow the market, so if the national market is too soft, some pundits are guessing the feds will continue to invest in mortgage backed securities.

There are two types of loans that are resetting through 2010 and 2011, so many pundits predict we will not be totally out of our Buyer's Market until the end of 2011.

Since you are a home Seller, I imagine you are hoping for prices to increase. Price increases will come over a few years. The key to making a personal decision is to consult with a knowledgeable, experienced agent about where you want to go. If you want to move up to a more expensive home or to a more expensive area, a Buyer's Market, such as this is the best time.

I live and work in your area and would be happy to answer your question based on your personal goals you want to achieve and the problems you want to solve.

Warm Regards,
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Feb 6, 2010
Margaret you and all of us would love to see or hear an accurate prediction we can count on. The truth is, not one really knows. We can make a general estimate or forecast, then again, should a natural disaster occur or a terrorist attack or the unexpected the forecasts go out the window regardless how accurate they may have been.

A large group of experts from the NAR suggests we are in summer of 2005 pricing in the Seattle area. It is also advised prices may take another dip as the next wave of ARM's reset mid year. The stimulous has a bit to do with the buyers coming out of the wood works and raising sales for 2009, however, so do the low prices & low interest rates. I continually tell my clients that if they purchased their home after 2005 to not sell if they don't have to. Of course many people have to sell due to their own circumstances, therefore their homes are priced not much higher then the bank owned and short sales on the market since they make up nearly 1/2 of the comparables.

We are expected to rebound, I've heard we can expect to see equity again in 2012. As always things could turn either which way
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Feb 5, 2010
Foreclosures here are half of what they are in a lot of major cities, so we won't see as much of an effect as CA, FL, NV, MI. We'll have a bit of a bump in Spring, as we always do, but overall we'll probably be flat for a couple of years, as the market stabilizes.
Web Reference: http://SeattleHome.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Feb 5, 2010
A lot depends on the category. All real estate is local, and then there are segments within each local market that are behaving differently. The first time buyer tax credit and low rates have stimulated the less expensive price bracket. In some areas in the country multiple offers are coming in for less expensive homes. Eventually the sellers, when they are not banks will be moving up to middle priced homes. High end homes haven’t had much help in the way of financing, but that may be loosening up too.
I don't think anyone projects a rapid increase in values like we saw a few years back, and that is a good thing. Inventories are less in the area than last year, which stabilizes prices. If rates continue to hold where they are now, I expect a busy spring, but buyers are very tentative so I don't see prices jumping anytime soon. I think there is also some pent up demand so I expect well priced and presented homes to turn in a reasonable amount of time. A lot comes down to your own goals and situation.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
According to the Case-Shiller Index, it has been level since March.

Nobody in their right mind predicts an upturn when there is no compelling evidence, yet, upturns do occur and the "compelling evidence" is often noticed retroactively.

Right now, the soothsayers say, down. Then, again, they've been saying "down" since 2005.

Currently, we're even with June 2005.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
Whatever I tell you, or anyone else does, it is only a guess. If I could actually predict what it would do, I would be rich. Yes, foreclosures and short sales are still climbing, so we will not have a raise this year. But sales are up.
I do not think the market will drop 9% this year. Forbes magazine did some extensive research and they asy it will only be down .5% by the end of the year. I do not believe that either. But, I think it will be closer to this figure then 9%. Also, Fortune magazine choose Seattle as 1 of the tip 5 cites in the US to invest in real estate this year. A lot of people read these things, and that should have some effect on the actual market. Feel free to call me anytime if you want to have a discussion. By the way, the main thing I would worry about is the interest rate. When that goes up a point, and it will, that will make more of a difference then any price point.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
A house price prediction site is below. You can use it to look at other states also.

After seeing a rise in home sales, Seattle new home and re-sales are holding steady rather than falling. The market had seen slower sales for three years before improving during the early summer months.

Foreclosures are increasing in Seattle as more homeowners become unemployed due to the decaying economy even though the area still has one of the nation's stronger local economies. Seattle's strong technological hub coupled with a dynamic aerospace business should boost future prospects in the recessionary economy. Seattle homes are forecast to decline an average of 9.1% in value in 2010.

That is what I see.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
Hi Margret, We believe that there has been a turn in the market and things are slowly improving. more sale and less inventory. We still have a lot of difficulties to work through, and it will be a long time before things get back to normal. probably years. In the meantime it is a much morer balanced market than it was 1 year ago.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
Here is some good information directly from the NWMLS

KIRKLAND, Wash. (Feb. 4, 2010) – “More certainty” and “more stability” in the market contributed to a boost in activity during January, according to officials from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Brokers reported an increase of nearly 27 percent in pending sales (purchase offers made and accepted, but not yet closed) from December and a 28 percent jump from twelve months ago.
Two other indicators of activity fell -- inventory and sales prices. There were 3,915fewer active listings of single family homes and condominiums in the MLS system compared to a year ago, a drop of about 10.3 percent. Sales prices area-wide for January’s closed sales declined about 4.8 percent from year-ago figures. (The NWMLS service area covers 21 counties.)

More at the attached link
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Feb 4, 2010
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