Laura, Other/Just Looking in Bolingbrook, IL

Experts say housing value will go down another 5% in 2011..when can we expect them to start to go back up?

Asked by Laura, Bolingbrook, IL Sat Jan 15, 2011

I bought my house in 2003...when can I expect to get what I paid for my house in 2003? 2 years? 5 years? Or do I cut my losses and try to sell now? Reason I want to sell is to buy a house in a better school district for my son who starts kindergarten in 2012

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I'll be straight up and honest with you... It may be atleast 5 years. I was first in this business in 1991 and we are seeing prices very close to what they were in 1991. It took from 1991 to 2003 (12 years) to get to the value of your home and just 4 years to bring it back down.

I'm suggesting to my clients that if they take their loss when selling then they will probably make it up when they purchase at these low values. Concentrate on the "gain" you could make on the purchase. Get your kids into that school district and that alone is a value, right?

Good Luck on your decision.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011

You are asking wonderful questions, your research and diligence are certainly paying off. According to statistics, as quoted by Steve Harney at the Illinois Association of Realtors ® convention this fall, properties will not be back to today's prices for at least 2 years. Honestly, there is no perfect time to do anything... get married, have a child, buy a car - a home... they are all decisions that come with some discomfort in the unknowing. Sometimes, we just have to educate ourselves and make the best decision that we can in the hopes of an acceptable outcome. Find a Realtor® that you trust and start to move in the direction that you know you want to take... Good Luck!
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011
The supposed quality of school districts is overrated. I live in Fairfax County which by reputation and test scores is one of the best counties in the country as far as schools. And, yes, many of the schools are very, very good. However, some aren't. My son went to a terrible elementary school. All the demographics were right--high-income and educated parents, involved parents, good teachers, good class size. It was the administration--the principal, specifically--who was terrible. So kids that had learning difficulties didn't receive assistance. Teachers lived in fear of the principal. Rotten food was served in the cafeteria. (Not sure if the principal was involved, but she certainly was when she denied there was a problem.)

On the other hand, there are neighboring school districts that don't have the same great reputation, but they have a lot of very good schools.

Rather than being concerned generally about the "school district," check out the specific school your son will attend. Talk to the parents. Talk to the people involved with the PTA. See what they say. Sit in on some classes. Talk to the principal. Talk to a guidance counselor. Your concern must be on the quality of education your son will receive, not on the statistics for the school district.

Recognize, too, that a lot depends on the home environment. Your son will be with you for much more time than he'll be sitting in kindergarten. Further, many educational experts will tell you that kids generally don't learn a whole lot in kindergarten. What they DO learn is how to attend school--how to listen to teachers. How to sit in desks. How to relate to other kids. So don't expect your kid--or any kid--to emerge from kindergarten reciting Shakespeare. That's not the purpose of kindergarten.

As far as your specific questions regarding home prices turning around, check with a local Realtor. That 5% number is absolutely meaningless to you. It includes areas (like Northern Virginia) where home prices are already going up and it includes places like Las Vegas which will be suffering for years to come.

So: Check with a local Realtor regarding likely price trends in your area. But, more important, check out the school your son will be attending.

Hope that helps.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011
Don Tepper, Real Estate Pro in Burke, VA
According to some of those same experts (Case-Shiller for example) the projection is to see Fall 2010 prices again in Fall 2013. An overall price drop of 5-10% will occur in the fist half of 2011 as the banks release more of the "Shadow Inventory" of bank owned foreclosures and approve more pre-foreclosure short sales. The continued release of this huge backlog of distressed homes will keep prices low and only slowly climb back up over the next two years. This seems to be the concensus of the big bank economists. What is interesting is that the same banks who are projecting the decrease in prices are the same ones that know they will be releasing more foreclosure inventory into market to drive the prices down. So you know the price drop and continued depressed prices are going to happen. The banks are the Cause of the Effect.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011
It's hard to predict the magnitude of the decline, because so many factors (including the release of properties in the shadow inventory, the foreclosure rate, the unemployment rate, the amount of new construction, the oil prices, politics, loan underwriting policy, etc) affect housing prices. Nevertheless, it's pretty clear that the real-estate market correction isn't finished, and prices most likely will continue to decline more in many areas.

Brandon's suggestion works similar to dollar cost averaging for stocks, and it's a method that some investors use to increase the efficiency of their investments. For example, let's say that one sells property A for a loss of $10K, and buys property B for a gain of $20K. The result is a net gain of $10K, and possibly a lower monthly payment (if one acquires B with financing).
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Feb 12, 2011
Buying up in a down market makes sense. plus, living where you want to live for whatever reason is worth something. Assuming you have zero equity in your current house, the question is would you be eligible for a mortgage if your current home was sold. Would your finances, job history, credit score, debt to asset ratio support your buying another house? If so it might make sense to not wait this one out. If you are under water you limit your choices to stay put or go through a foreclosure/short sale and probably not being eligible for a mortgage on a home in the school district you refer to.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Feb 12, 2011
Laura -

Betting on the real estate market is like betting on the stock market - too many unknowns and it is always a gamble. 2003 was toward the higher end of the market, but every transaction is different. If you wait around for someone that may or may not happen, you might miss out. No one can forecast acurately what is going on too far into the future. One thing is clear...when unemployment rebounds to the point that people feel secure in their jobs, buyers will come back into the market more. The other factor is interest rates and foreclosures. With a lot of distressed homes on the market still, we still have too much inventory for prices to rebound substantially. But every home and every area is different. My advice is to have some realtors come and do a CMA on your home and see what you can get for it, what you owe on it, but more importantly, what you can buy for. As long as you are not going to take too much of a beating on your home, you can buy now for less than before. And wouldn't you rather be paying less for the next 30 years? One thing I must respectively disagree though. We are in a global marketplace. You don't need to stick with a "local" realtor to give you information. You want the best person to find you a home and knows your home and the best ways to buy and sell. Where you hang your hat is not as important as what you know and how you can get the job done. I have sold homes and developed property in Bolingbrook and am very familiar with the area. I would happy to give you a some no nonsense straight information on both buying and selling and your home's worth. I have a different approach that makes good dollar sense. You can call me at 888-788-9544.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jan 17, 2011

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0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jan 16, 2011
No one has a crystal ball. Best advice is to live life as best you can and where you want to. You cannot put a price on your son's education. If you wait 3, 5 or 7 years, you may not be in any better shape. Do what is best for your family right now.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011

According to our local MLS, average and median sales prices in Bolingbook were actually up in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to 2009 and flat for the year overall. Real estate is local and you should speak to a realtor in your area to get an idea of the market value of your specific home. The realtor can also help you search for homes in the areas where you would like to move. You may receive less for your home when you sell but you are likely also to pay less for your new home. It very well may be that there is a net benefit when both the sale of your existing home and purchase of your new home are combined. After you have more specific information about your individual situation, you will be in a better position to make a decision.

Millie C Lumpkin, SFR
Century 21 Pro-Team
Phone: (708) 213-6141
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011
Professional code of ethics prevent any Realtor respond to that question, we can't predict the future. Same as an attorney can't predict out come of a case you hired them defend you in .

Lynn911 Dallas Realtor & Consultant, Loan Officer, Credit Repair Advisor
The Michael Group - Dallas Business Journal Top Ranked Realtors
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011

Yours is the perfect "Move up" example. Whether for a Bigger better house, Neighborhood or School dist. These are the typical Move up examples and you must keep in mind, Your "Loss" if done properly, can just be a trade off or a wash on the next property. As, the New property will hopefully be deeply discounted as well!

Think Trade off, Not "Loss"! Not to mention, your Bigger, Better, nicer neighborhood or betta school dist Home will appreciate faster in a betta market as well. Even the int. Rates are in your favor today!

Please check out this Blog post:

Hope this helps!
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jan 15, 2011
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