Slow, slower and slowest.... unless you are prepared to price VERY aggressively. While the Portola area is a nice enough neighborhood, it is one of the slowest ones in San Francisco as are most of the most southern-eastern parts of the city. In the past 3 months there have been only 7 sales (2 per month average) in the entire "Portola" neighborhood. With 25 listed For Sale right now, that is a year's supply. That is incredibly long anywhere... but especially so in San Francisco.

There are actually 12 homes that are apparently in contract (per an MLS search), so there are Buyers buying, but most were "asking" less than $700,000.

Of the 7 that have Sold, two sold quite "high", one for $788k and another for $800k. I have no knowledge of why they sold so high, and looking at them, it makes no sense (to me) because all of the other sales were $639k or below... with 4 of the 7 sales below $573k... and the two high sales don't appear to have anything that makes them special enough to deserve the higher prices.

Just 2 years ago the average price was closer to the mid- to high- $700's, now the average is at least $100,000 lower. The prices started dropping in 2006 and haven't let up since, although I don't believe it will go down any further than it is now. Buyers are out and buying... but for the most part they are being very picky, and they are bargain hunting.

When and will it go back up in price? Hard to say. I think you're looking at least a year out for that to start happening given the 1 year's worth of supply (homes for sale).

Fri May 23 2008, 11:37

Thank you for clarifying the question. As you can see from Rebecca'a answer the sale of your property will depend on a number of factors but mainly marketing price. Homes that are perceived, by buyers, to be overpriced in San Francisco sit without any offers. Homes that are perceived by the buyers to be under priced get multiple offers.
The Portola and the streets you mention are still desirable but there isn't the same pressure on supply that there was in 2005. If you don't need to sell then hold on till the credit market stabalizes. If you need to sell then price agressively.
This response does not create or imply an agency relationship.

Mon May 12 2008, 07:43

I see that you clarified your question with regard to specific streets so let me address that question, if I may...

1) Colby--some clients of mine bought a fixer (it had been tenanted) last year for $650,000. A house across the street has been on the market for 7 months. I asked the listing agent why it hadn't sold and she said that it was over-priced ($975K) and the seller wasn't motivated to sell. There is another home for sale on Colby for $859K and it has been on the market for 2 months. The only sale so far this year on Colby was listed at $598,000 and sold for $573,000 and took 106 days.

2) Princeton--One home was listed last year for $975,000 and withdrawn after 6 months. (Someone died?) It came back on as a probate listing for $739,000 and eventually sold for $770,000 (no one overbid the subsequent $809,000).

As I mentioned in my earlier post, some parts are better than others? Are you north or south of Bacon?

3) University--one listing--a short sale--for $879,000. It's been on the market for 6 1/2 months.

There are also short sales on Dartmouth, Yale and Bacon. This makes for competition in price but not always in condition and location.

P.S. My new listing is on Princeton.

Sat May 10 2008, 22:40

As I have been analyzing Portola recently as I am listing a home in University Heights, I can share the following statistics with you. (If you'd like to see the pretty colored charts, email me and I'll send them to you.)

Last year, there were a total of 136 listings of single-family residences.. (I say listings as opposed to individual properties as one home alone was withdrawn FIVE times!)

In 2007, over half of these 136 properties, 71, or 52.2% SOLD; approximately 43% were withdrawn or expired; 3% are still active (averaging 200 days on the market and a median price nearly $200,000 higher than the median price of those that sold) and 2.2% are pending.

This is an average of 6 sales per month and 55 days on market.

Let me give you some numbers for 2008. I can share my thoughts and then you may draw your own conclusions...

So far in 2008, there are 51 houses in all statuses (active, contingent, expired, inactive, pending and sold). Thus as far as overall activity, this is close to 2007. (2007: 136 listings divided by 12 months is 11.33 per month of some type of listing. 2008: 51 divided by 4 /3 months equals 11.86 listings of different types per month.)

As I mentioned, in 2007, there were 71 sales or about 6 per month. So far in 2008, there have been 11 sales are about 2 1/2 per month. If I'm optimistic and add the contingent (1) and pending sales (4) in for a total of 16 transactions this year, divided by 4 1/3 months, that yields almost 4 per month--either way, the sales activity is behind last year's.

My chart shows 43% active, 22% sold, 27% other and 8% pending.

What does all this mean? Are sales down because there is less inventory? After all, there are half as many sales so far this year as there are listings and depending on how one looks at it, a 5 /2 to 8 month supply of inventory--with no new listings.

What concerns me somewhat about this area is that there are half a dozen short sales.

As the median price is down from $722,000 last year to $573,000 this year and the median days on market have increased 33% (from 55 to 73); I'd say that there is some good opportunity here to buy--in my opinion--in Portola. The people whom I know who live there have lived there for 30 years and love their neighborhood. Of course, some streets are more desirable than others.

As far as selling, I am very optimistic about my listing as it's on a desirable street and doesn't have a lot of comparable competition. With new paint and (unwarranted rooms) in the lower level, it will sell because it is in good condition and has a great location.

I'm not really sure if you want to know about the market or the neighborhood so I'll throw a few more thoughts in...
1) One of my clients moved TO the Portola District as that's where she grew up and wanted to live and raise her family.
2) Other people hate San Bruno as there isn't any decent shopping.
3) I still don't know an easy way back to the freeway. :)

Sat May 10 2008, 22:06

I was speaking with a colleague who purchased in Portola having moved from a West Portal rental and he remarked how much he enjoyed being in a sunnier part of town!

Mon May 5 2008, 10:19

Mandy,
There are two questions from you with the same question. The Portola is a an area running from highway 28o to Mansell ave on the south. The university names run parallel with San Bruno ave. There are distinct sub neighborhoods with in it mostly divided by Silver and then the upper area around the resivour and the elder home.
Many very nice homes, some rentals, many schools to chose from. What esle do you want to know. History, current demographics, comparison to other neighborhoods. Are you selling a home in the Portola or buying or just curious? Let us know.

Sat May 3 2008, 19:16

I asked about the Portola, Colby, Princeton, University. How are sales there?

Sat May 3 2008, 16:47