Canned metrics aren't very useful for Woodside because land ranges in size from 1/4 c to 50 acres and homes from 1,500 sf to 15,000 sf. So the mix of homes that sell in any given period makes a huge difference in the metrics. Woodside is home to many company founders and venture capitalist in the area and is sought after because it has larger parcels of land than surrounding areas. It's best to consult with a Realtor who has lots of experience selling homes in Woodside. They can sort out how differences in location, topography, views and quality of the improvements affects the value of any given property.

Ed Kahl
650-851-5245 http://www.edkahl.com

The previous answers were great. Just wanted to add mine about median, which is: Median really isn't the greatest way to look at statistics - it's such a small piece of the bigger picture.

If three things sold, one for $1, one for $10 and one for $1,000. Then the median is $10. That doesn't really tell you anything.

KPS
I think the reason for the discrepancy is that I am looking at a year to year comparison, and the data in the link you posted is looking at the numbers from a monthly perspective (so it appears). Without knowing their methodology its hard to tell. If that is what they are doing, and there is only one house sold in a given month, that's the median. This is the reason I was using the 3 month example in my previous post. In the last three months there were only 3 places sold, all below 2m so thats how you get your monthly median that is low.

I am not sure how they ran their analysis, but I can tell you the way I did mine. I am looking at sales for the entire year, then coming up with a median price from that number. I am also only looking at homes, not vacant lots. Then I compare those to prior years. If you want the raw numbers, I would be more than happy to send those to you, or you an give me a call.

Hi Scott,

The data I quoted from altos research is actually year over year comparing jan 08 through jan 09, not over the past 3 months. It is troubling that it is diametrically opposite to the data you quoted. Given that you are both comparing sales over the same time period, what would be the reason for such a large spread in the conclusions from the data?

Couple of things to keep in mind with these numbers.

First, Woodside should really be divided into upper (being the Skyline area) and lower (being central Woodside etc) even then the area should be broken up a bit more (Woodside Glens etc.). They are really different markets.

Second, there were 32 homes sold in lower Woodside last year, down from 48 last year. In the last 3 months only 3 places sold in lower Woodside, the least expensive being $1m, the most being $1.89M. Those were among the least expensive homes sold in Woodside this year, so it threw the median down. The median for the year is almost the exact same as last year, just below $3m.

When you look at the numbers on a monthly basis they can be all over the place. Prices in Woodside this year varied from 9.5m down to 1m. It is very difficult to get meaningful data from median number in Woodside unless you look at it from 6 month or better yet, 12 month period simply because the number of transactions is not that large, and the price varies so much from property to property. I like to look at the available inventory vs. what sold and days on market to get an idea. (I have put together an analysis of this that can be found here: http://activerain.com/blogs/mortimer99 )

Basically the volume is down but ,from a year to year basis the prices are about the same.

Hope that helped

Because the sample size tends to be smaller in Woodside, the data is a bit more easily skewed (both up and down). To be sure though, prices are down.

The big problem as I see it right now is that jumbo loans remain ridiculously expensive compared to standard conforming and the newer high balance conforming loans. Whereas the latter are currently priced in the 5% range, jumbo loans (625K and up) are priced in the high 7% range - and to get such a special rate you also may need to put in excess of 20% down. Of course, consult your mortgage broker for current data.

This is a problem all over the mid-Peninsula. Menlo Park, Portola Valley, Woodside, Palo Alto, etc. all face the same issue. The buyers are out there, but lenders are making it difficult for anyone to buy.

This is compounded by newer, more strict guidelines for appraisers that frown upon going back more than 3 months when looking at comps (comparable sales). As you my recall, the credit market froze back in early October, which is now more than 3 months ago.

The end result - very few homes sold in the last 3 months, so the comps are very limited. Appraisers may have holes in the price range they are trying to comp (just had that experience), and they certainly are not going to err on the high side. Loan rates suck for jumbo loans, so many buyers are waiting (and justifiably so).

Is the higher end in for a downturn? Maybe so, but it is not simply because the capable buyers have all gone broke. There are a host of factors in play. Since the new year though, there has been an uptick in properties in the jumbo loan category that have gone pending.

That's my 2 cents.

John Barman
Coldwell Banker