Home Buying in San Ramon>Question Details

Hailey, Home Buyer in San Ramon, CA

we are looking for a bigger hose right like in the 3000sq above around san ramon and danville..I notice the

Asked by Hailey, San Ramon, CA Thu Jun 11, 2009

inventory is really low...are we going to have more inventory? with the new wave of foreclosure?

Help the community by answering this question:


Hi Hailey,

The answer to your question is yes, absolutely!

Here's why: Lenders/Banks put the brakes on foreclosures during the later part of 2008 due to Federal, State and self-established moratoriums. Then came the announcement of the President’s housing recovery plan. As soon as banks/loan servicers heard a plan was in the works they had additional reason to throttle back on the foreclosure process. That all ended in March after the plans) were announced in late February 09 - there wasn't much for the Banks/servicers to be excited about. Since then, Banks/servicers shifted their Notice-of-Default and Notice-of-Trustee Sale machines into overdrive. The foreclosure process takes about 3 months, 3 weeks and 3 days (starting with the NOD). So look for a healthy spike in supply around the end of this summer. This is the so called "REO Shadow Inventory" you may have heard of.
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/REO-ShadowInventory.pdf (Article on backlog)

Another factor: resetting loans coupled with reduced property values, and double-digit unemployment in CA will add to the backlog of supply.
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/Resets.pdf (shows loan reset schedule)
http://docs.Steven-Anthony.com/OptionArmResets.pdf (shows accelerated loan reset schedule)

Best, Steve
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
"They" say there will be a way of REO's on the market this summer but it is hard to predict. We will see
1 vote Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
Scott Summers,

I may be wasting my time to respond to you, but your perspective is really funny!

You cited a news clip from cbs of 3-1/2 months ago to support that "Here is a great segment on why now is a good time to buy";

When justlooking cited a report from WSJ of 1 (ONE) day old to say that "why this is not yet a good time to buy", you then responded that "If you looking to buy in San Ramon, I suggest you look at statistics for San Ramon or the bay area, as all real estate is LOCAL......."

Your s**t really smells when you continue "The media likes to talk about National Real Estate trends as if it means something to your local area...."

Did that cbs news clip talk specifically about San Ramon?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 24, 2009
In my opinion saying San Ramon is a sellers marketet is completely irresponsible. Yes the market times are AVERAGE for the historical norm for the market. Yes there are multiple offers on homes in San Ramon. It is by NO means a sellers market.

In the seller's market boom, homes were selling in days thousands over last comps. This buyers market buyers are bidding DOWN properties or not offering over. The buyers receving homes are mostly the storongest financially. The only matter of consequece relevent to the seller is the buyer is financially viable. There is no guarentee of a close, no guarentee of receiving full price, and no assurance there will be no consessions, even in multiple offers. Cash strong buyers have the leverage and they are punishing the sellers for every flaw they can find knowing each new material fact will compromise what little leverage the seller has getting to close.

The reasons behind these numbers are the foreclosures and the banks offloading homes as quickly as they can. They are undercutting comps to move inventory as fast as possible. The sellers have no market strength. Even when they do appraisals limit price constraining market to a very limited range. The banks are doing the best at protect their margins but even in multiple offers the close rate percentage is below 70% (my preception).

The multiple offers are being driven by declining prices. The median number is up because higer priced homes (up to mid 800k) are now selling briskly pulling the median up. The bottom of the market (under 350k) is stabilizing but the market over 900k is still in distress (due to financing). Rest asssured the market may still move lower in the higher end.

Sure there are exceptions and I am sure you will find the one home that had 25 offers on a no contingecy contract and closed in15 days. Before you do I will sumbit 2 things.

1) There are still a lot of BAD agents and good salespeople out there who are doing what they feel they need to do in order to close transations. I wish them the best and warn the rest of you, caveat emptor.

2) For every 1 transaction you can find out there I will show you 10 to support my position.

It's a buyers market out there and the low prices and good financing just add to the challenges in this market.
Web Reference: http://bob2sell.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 24, 2009
If you looking to buy in San Ramon, I suggest you look at statistics for San Ramon or the bay area, as all real estate is LOCAL. The media likes to talk about National Real Estate trends as if it means something to your local area. It doesn't have any meaning. Also, the media always reports the real estate news a few months after Realtors actually experience it. I'll go out on a limb here and predict that in a month or two the media will start to report what I'm saying here now. If the market here in San Ramon continues to go down, I'll admit I was wrong and you can call me on it. Fair enough?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Wed Jun 24, 2009
For why this is not yet a good time to buy, check this out...

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 23, 2009
Here is a great segment on why now is a good time to buy.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 23, 2009
Ponderosa makes really nice homes with good quality. However, I had a terrible experience with the sales person there last year. They were very cocky and treated my wife and I very poorly. We got pre-approved with their lender and came in ready to make an offer. However, they didn't even want to discuss the offer or negotiate since the price we suggested was lower than their asking price. (They were asking 1.14 and were were going to offer close to 1 million). They chided us and told us Ponderosa stood for quality as they were better than any other builder and the prices will always hold up. That home ended up staying on the market for another 3 months. It eventually sold for around $1.03. Now the same model is going for 979k, with a resale on a bigger lot going for 950k with many more upgrades. If your not dealing with Jessie Bal, I would say give the place a try.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 23, 2009
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 22, 2009
How would you define the "sellers" and "buyers" markets? When someone says that the market has 1.5 months of inventory, what does that exactly mean? Although the San Ramon market seems to have picked up lately, it seems pre-mature and flash in the pan to me - and my reasoning is based on the following economic factors - high double digit unemplyment rate (still rising), foreclosures rate (look at the loan re-set info in next 1-2 years), almost zero projected GDP growth. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball, but it is hard to ignore the facts.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 22, 2009
A quick point. There is not exactly allot of inventory in San Ramon. May was 1.5 months. As of right now, there is 3.6 months. Dublin is even tighter with 1.9 months. So it's ticked up a little bit. Still these numbers mean it's a sellers market.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 21, 2009
What do you think about Colony by Ponderosa in Alamo Creek? is that better than Milano by Lennar?
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 21, 2009

I would advise some more homework. Most of the Dougherty Valley was not in existence in 2002. If you are looking for value in the high end there the prices are below 200 per square foor for homes over 4000 sq ft. That is right at retail construction cost. At the bottom end they are generally and solidly at $300 and holding.
The per square foot across San Ramon in tha last 6 moths of 2001 were 212-350 per square foot. We are there Andy.

Since the whole of Dougherty was built and sold in the boom, the foreclosures are defining prices, there is loads of inventory and if San Ramon works for someone there are some very nice newer homes available, in a strong school district in a desireable community.
Web Reference: http://bob2sell.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sun Jun 21, 2009
Is housing really down? In my opinion….NO. The housing has not yet touched the 2002 level so in my opinion, it’s not yet down. The housing market in San Ramon, Mission San Jose Fremont, and Cupertino are still very high.

What is the right time to buy a house? Once the house prices go down bellow the Year 1999- 2002 price range, that’s the right time to buy. So far I do not see that San Ramon house prices are near to that. So I will wait and watch till I found that it is stable enough.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 20, 2009
Take a look at who is exempt: (some of the largest Loan Servicers in the Nation):

So, just how effective is this new law in delaying foreclosures? Not very much in my opinion.

Note: This new law does not change separate legislation that requires lenders to wait 30 days before filing a notice of foreclosure after first making initial contact with a borrower who has missed several mortgage payments.

You're right; it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom. The market dynamics going on right now are "out of the box", subject to change, unprecedented, and darn complex.

As far as CA, historically, since 1968 (this is how far the available data from CAR goes) there has only been one time where California housing had consecutive years of price decline. That would be 1992-1996 (see chart link below). Note that after this period the entire decline had been made up within the following two years (92-96 total decline of 12.2%, 97-98 total increase of 12.5%). While past performance is not a predictor of future performance, ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, I still believe in the long-term resiliency of California as an international destination location for work and living.

With the FED continuing to buy Billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at the 4-4.5% coupon level, conforming rates should hover at/under 5%. While the market bottom may or may not be near, the financial benefit of artificially low rates, accumulated over a standard 30-year timeline, may provide enough of a savings subsidy/hedge to act when an appropriate property is located. If inflation takes grasp due to all of the stimulus money, the FED would have to consider terminating their MBS purchasing. This would cause mortgage rates to significantly increase.

Best, Steve
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 18, 2009
I don't feel that the new law would prevent the foreclosure. It just prolongs the house market recovery.
The big puzzle is how long it takes bank to let all problem house to be foreclosure and release it to market. It may depend on bank financial tolerance and how quick they want to get rid of these houses. If bank decides to slowly release the foreclosure house to market, no big price drop but it may cause house market recovery as bump 'L' shape. You might need to wait another 5 or 10 years to find the bottom. The question is: how long do you want to wait? The bottom line is that everyone is guessing; no one can give you clear picture.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 18, 2009
This law is not going to prevent any forecloser, however it is going to force more people to be default. The only action to save the housing market is to let it bottom. All these actions are giving a slow death to housing. Government is just giving 90 day free residence to current home owner.

0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 18, 2009
Really not sure of how effective this new law will be in stopping the foreclosure process.

From (CAPS used to identify main points):

"Lenders in California now have to provide a 90-day moratorium on foreclosure proceedings where NO EFFORT was made to work with the borrower to modify the terms of a home loan under a new state law rolled out Monday.

Lenders and loan servicers that already have a comprehensive and systematic loan modification program in place are EXEMPT FROM THE LAW. Such programs call for loans to be modified by lowering interest rates for at least five years, deferring or reducing part of the principal, or providing up to 40 years to repay the loan.

The California Foreclosure Prevention Act law APPLIES TO first mortgages taken out between 2003 and 2007 for owner-occupied homes. CalHFA loans are NOT eligible.

The law is on top of separate legislation that requires lenders to wait 30 days before filing a notice of foreclosure after first making initial contact with a borrower who has missed several mortgage payments.

Some see this state law neatly folding ito the Obama administration's foreclosure plan that includes financial incentives made to lenders, loan servicers and borrowers who participate in loan modification programs. While Obama's plan includes lots of CARROTS, this one offers a STICK that prods lenders towards participating in efforts to keep owners in their homes."

Certainly interesting times! - Steve
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 16, 2009
I'm thinking this wave of forclosures will be a trickle to prevent huge declines that we saw 2 years ago.
Web Reference: http://www.crosswalkre.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 16, 2009
It doesn't look like the state government is going to allow a new big wave of foreclosures to hit. They just put a 90 day moratorium on foreclosures. This will put pressure on banks to do loan modifications and to accept short sales. I think Arnold is going to keep kicking the can down the road on this until the economy starts to recover.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue Jun 16, 2009
It is almost certain that the next wave of foreclosures will bring significant inventory to the market and San Ramon market is no exception. I see that some agents are categorically saying that we are the bottom of the market, but I am not so sure. Once we hit the bottom at a future point, it is going to be a slow U-shaped recovery, so there will be plenty of good opportunities to buy.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon Jun 15, 2009
Hi Hailey. I think we are at the bottom of the market now in the San Ramon Valley for homes 800k and under. There may be more foreclosures but I don't see it increasing the overall inventory all that much. We are 3 years into the market slide and now prices have reached a level where are people are buying and we're seeing multiple offers. Remember that even though we may see an increase in foreclosures hitting the market, move up buyers who might try to sell are not putting their homes on the market, so it could be a wash. Interest rates are still low right now, but may not stay that way for long. I haven't seen a better time to buy in a long time.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Sat Jun 13, 2009
If you consider Windemere, research the property tax, which is higher than other areas due to the improvements of the area.
Suzanne Looker
0 votes Thank Flag Link Fri Jun 12, 2009
I agree..I will probably wait and see for awhile..I prefer Bridges , then Gallery, or Danville..
I will go to Windemere if the price is really good deal...

I am currently in Coronado area....
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
banks release them in blocks so as not to keep the price low. There should be more coming.....
Those hope there will be plenty of foreclosed homes for everyone is unrealistic...

I am in Santa Clara County, the buyers on low priced homes normally get a hand full of offers......
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
What does your Realtor say?

The only homes being sold right now are homes that HAVE to be sold. So inventory, particularly large homes like the ones you describe, and in that price range, activity is low and inventory is low.

Regarding the wave of foreclosures, I would not count on it. The wave, if we see one, will probably mirror the current inventory profile...lots of entry level condos, townhomes, and smaller single family homes.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
Keith Sorem, Real Estate Pro in Glendale, CA
Thanks for the correction, yes, Trulia and other sites are not always accurate or up to date.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
Suzanne: did you mean to say:

"Trulia and other public sights are NOT always accurate and up to date. "
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
Hi Hailey,
I've been looking in the same area with other clients and am surprised at the low inventory for this time of year. I think many sellers are holding off thinking that the market will improve over the next year or so. I advise my clients not to sell unless they need to do so now or in the immediate future. Unless, of course they are upsizing, then it makes perfect sense to sell and buy up.

Anyway, you can always monitor the market by being placed on a realtor's MLS search program. Any one of us is happy to do that.

Trulia and other public sights are now always accurate and up to date.

Good luck with your search,
Suzanne Looker, 925-917-9070
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
I've heard "they" say that too...Everyone is watching really closely.
Web Reference: http://www.crosswalkre.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Thu Jun 11, 2009
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