Manuel,
I have been working and living in Avondale since 2000 and in the past few months I have personally purchased 2 investment properties here. Why? Prices are nearing the bottom. I do plan on renting these homes for 5 years or more.
I would suggest purchasing in the 85395 section of Avondale. This area of Avondale is north of I10 and we have noticed renters and buyers specifically requesting this area of Avondale. Interested????
Mary Drefs
Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners
623-694-0354
marydrefs@cox.net
Top Agent 2001,2002,2003,2004. Top Team 2005,2006,2007 & 2008!!

Manuel,

The economy is still good, however housing trends have died off, and for good reason. Home prices became horribly inflated in AZ (along with other states like CA, FL or NM). The reason any of these states saw rampant appreciation was the easy access to loans. Money was too easy to get and too cheap for anyone NOT to do it.

Over the next two years, I would agree with Joe and say that you are highly unlikely to profit or even breakeven. Remember, while investing...your monthly cash flow comes into play. Now, I do not know the specific rents in the area (although I can find out easily), many times AZ investment properties hold a negative cash flow unless a substantial amount of money is put down. Rents are soft in most areas in AZ, and by soft...I mean there is a large gap between the mortgage of a home and the rent received.

Lastly, what brought you to AZ?

Denton Ward
Nationwide Real Estate Investments
http://www.nwrei.net

Manuel,

Because I am specifically versed in Avondale real estate, I can give some specific answers for you. With the uncertainty of the market now, purchasing a home with the intent to sell for a profit or break even is unlikely.

Looking at the return on investment versus risk factor, you are likely better renting a home for two years. As rents can easily be found in the $850-1000 range, you would be paying that in just interest during those 2 years in addition to loan principle, taxes, insurance and maintenance costs. If there is any appreciation at all, it likely won't be enough to cover your costs to sell in those couple of years.

If your intent is for a longer term of ownership i.e. 5 years, your chance of profiting has increased and would like be a good investment. Real estate is generally thought of as a long term investment. Of course, this was prior to the TV fade of the past couple of years.

If you go to latest speeches section titled "Crunch" there is a long presentation but a lot of information.

OK, thank you for clarifying Manuel.

That is a very though question to answer becuase there are so many variables such as location, type of buy, economy, market trends, etc... To answer these types of questions, I always base my recommendations and my own investment purchases on statistics. You don't want to sell when everyones is selling and you don't want to buy when everyone is buying...simple supply/demand theory.

If you don't know already, current excess inventory levels, including new builder inventory, are still at the highest levels ever for the phoenix area right around 55,000-58,000 active properties for sale. Previous record was around 30,000 several years back. Needless to say we have some time to work through this but with 10,000 people per month moving here and 70,000-80,000 new jobs per year being created here things will change. Again, it is simple supply/demand.

More importantly, forclosures are at about 700 per week in the Phoenix area and I attended a business forecasting seminar that estimates it to continue through 2008. It is becuase of ARM loans done 2-3 years ago adjusting and people not being able to refi or make the payments so the houses will end up in foreclosure. This is important because once foreclosed, the banks are dumping the properites at low sale prices which lower other homeowner values in the neighborhood. Since this will go on for the next few years, home values will still be corrected and the market will then stabilize and begin to appreciate again.

All this being said, in general since you are looking to buy an investment for appreciation, I would recommend buying a bank repo since you will get the best price. I also think you will likely need to plan to hold it 5-10 years or more to make a gain that is worth while.

A good resource to help you with market statistics is a very reputable forecaster Elliot Pollack at http://www.arizonaeconomy.com. There is a recent presentation on 2008 Real Estate that would be very helpful to you.

Now as far as Avondale, a great thing to look at is commercial development. Where are big commercial developments going suchas as retail/restaurant/office/etc? Becuase as those things are built, people want to be in that area more and live there. Avondale has a lot going on especially north of the I-10 between 101 & 303. Surprise also has a lot going on with the start of "Prasada" along the 303 which will be 820 acres and the largest mall in Arizona. All of these areas really close to Westgate which is a good thing and the newly annouce LA Dodger spring training facility that will be built so you may want to consider that.

I hope this helps you a little with your decision. Feel free to contact me with any other questions.

-Greg

thank you for your quick answer. im looking at the future, 2-5 years from now if i want to sell. how the economy market of avondale will be in 2 years from now

It depends on your definition of the right place to buy. What factors are you using to determine if it is the right place to buy? What is important to your purchase? Community? Activities? Schools? Development? I work this area and can give you information on it.