Banks still have many foreclosed homes in their holdings. Flippers will gladly sell you their houses for high price now.
I believe you will find it is more beneficial to pay more for a home in a good school district as opposed to paying for private school.
"I have done lots of analysis/paralysis about this. But how would you look at this?"
You are basically analyzing how to best spend $850/Mo or $10.2k/year!
Some other key observations:
1) Private school tuition is not fixed year over year and can increase.
2) Mortgage interest provides a reducing tax deduction benefit each year.
3) You have a 10-year ownership timeline.
4) There is a correlation between a School's API and housing value.
Now, plain and simple, if I'm going to spend an extra $850 per month it sure seems more beneficial to have a portion of these expended funds provide me with a tax deduction (instead of the possibility tuition increases) over the course of my ownership period.
So, the questions you must answer are:
A) If I add $850 more to my mortgage payment what is the maximum priced home I could buy,
B) What school attendance areas are we now open to by doing so,
C) What are the API's of the Elementary and Middle schools, and
D) What City will likely provide me the best ROI once it comes time to sell?
Quick tip #1:
Regarding B & C above, check out http://www.SchoolAndHousing.com
Based on property address, this site provides attendance area schools (Public, Private and Daycares) along with useful statistics and other information you should appreciate.
Quick tip #2:
One strategy you can employ regarding school selection is "API Trending"; however, it's certainly not a science and has more risk because you are trying to time the "API Market" so to speak (still better odds than the lottery). Basically, you are reviewing the API trend of a school looking for its API Score trajectory to help make a decision on where to buy. Personally, I prefer making decisions based on known quantities. Hereâ€™s an example chart: http://tinyurl.com/pwa7rq9
I have had a number of clients with young children in the same position purchase a home assigned to a great elementary school (and not so great middle and and high school). Then when their child gets to middle school age they take the equity and move up in house. One of my clients recently executed this exact plan and moved to Brookvale in Fremont.
Union City homes in the neighborhood around Cambridge Way would an area you may want to consider. The homes were build around 1997, some have a full bed and bath downstairs, and they are assigned to Delaine Easton Ele.
Unlike in most of Fremont, it's possible to do an inter district transfer in Union City if you want to buy off of Lowry and send your child to Delaine.
Another thing to consider is when you purchase a home in Ardenwood you child is not guaranteed to get into Forest Park, Ardenwood, or Warwick Elementary due to the overcrowding.
So you see I am confused :-).
So when you say deals to be had in Union City, what do you consider a value buy? At what price point would you say a 4 bd room house with around 2350-2400 sq ft is a value buy?
Union City has several very nice communities / neighborhoods that I'm sure you'd like and feel safe. ie; Meridian Court (gated complex), areas near Mission Blvd. towards the Fremont border, along Union City Blvd. and Lowry - all very nice.
If your child is already in private school, paying more for less might not seem necessary.
You might sit down and look at all your options with your Broker and discuss each area in more detail.
Union City is a better choice in my opinion as you may find better deals as well growth in your investment by the time you need to switch your child school.
There are great deals out there, let me know if you would like any listings to start with. My contact information is below.
RE/MAX Active Realty.
Short Sale And Foreclosure Resource
4056 Decoto Road
Phone: (510) 676-4770
Sunil Sethi Real Estate