I think we will be closer to the bottom by Summer 2010. No surprises this Labor Day...sorry :-(

I actually hired a local realtor and she told me that there was alot of stuff selling as people are desperate to get into their new home before school starts. She advised that I wait until October when the 5/1 ARMs all reset as she expects there to be a ton of inventory. Fortunately, this realtor is one of the few who I have met who are not cheerleaders. She advises me that any home I purchase i should expect to stay in for 5-10 years to get back to even as the real estate decline in Chatham is only starting and will continue into late next year. What is funny is that I go to open houses and some realtors are like her and alot are "things are rebounding, buy now". The realtors who say that are annoying. They think that people are fools and cant read between the lines. My realtor says that anyone who is still sitting on the market as of labor day will be in for a rude awakening.

Ah....the Cheerleaders are coming back out again...."we've hit bottom in the Real Estate Market"...."better buy now, you will never see prices this low again"....wait till next Spring.....I dare say we see prices 15%-20% lower....who knows....maybe printing all this money actually will keep prices inflated....?

To update your question, homes in Chatham Boro have been moving a lot faster now and are no longer sitting on the market for a long time. It's true that there are some that are still sitting because they have not lowered their price or are new contructions that are not completed yet. However, looking at the market from an analytical point of view, the Chatham market overall (between the Boro and the Township) are running at a 5 month absorption rate (meaning if no more homes were to come on the market, it would take 5 months to sell every home currently on the market); and Chatham Boro is a little over 2 months absorption right now. This is a clear indication of an up-turn in the market.

All these Chatham homes will drop more and more. Listing is one thing - selling them is another.

Alot of people are under water. There is a house at 37 Huron that was a For Sale By Owner last year. The guy had it listed at 1.575 mil and it sat there for months until he pulled it off the market. It is now list at 1.425 mil as the guy is desperate to sell. He is a laid off wall streeter who owes way too much money on his. The problem from him is that he waited a year too long and his house is probably worth between $950K on the low side to 1.1 mil on the high side. The house was listed in 2007 at 1.35 Mil at the height of the market. He fell for the "best and highest" sucker game and overpaid to the tune of 1.45 mil. Now he is left holding the bag. He is a total bagholder and will never get close to what he owes.

This house will sit until the bank gives him permission to take whatever he can get. My guess is september they take $900K. By then it will have hit everyone that they will never get back anywhere near what the bagholder has into it.

I have been shopping for a house in Chatham for 2 years. My carefully considered opinion is that most sellers value their house first on sentimentality and, secondly, according to what their neighbor got 2 years ago.

We also have to include the game that listing agents play to get to list certain properties--sellers like to go with the person that will tell them their home is worth more...not necessarily the person that will sell it the quickest.

I have a thick folder of past MLS sheets that tracks the properties that have been delisted and relisted and miraculously have, now, only been on the market 15 days!

There isn't much of an answer here, but you say you're a seller so you probably already know the answer to the question. I am encouraged by the correction in prices and, after the quick burst of pent up demand (those 10 couples moving out of NYC this Spring), I expect prices to really start to reflect those early 2000s prices.

Simple answer - they really do not want or have to sell. And interestingly enough, the market is still on a decline (although I am seeing some glimmers of light) and therefore as they wait for that price to be obtain they continue to miss the opportunity of what thay can get today vs. less for tomorrow.

Bobby,

Since I am unfamiliar with the Chatham market, my only comments on this post pertain to the "delist and relist game". Years ago, perhaps this worked. With internet marketing in RE growing and the advance of information provided by various MLS systems, sellers fail to realize that buyers and Realtors are more educated than ever, therefore this methodology is currently ineffective. And smart buyer's agents are held to a standard of full disclosure and must disclose this type of info to potential buyers.

Unfortunately, as listing agents, we have no choice but to engage in this practice when our sellers make such a request despite our objections in an effort to keep a client happy. (and I can't begin to to tell you how many sellers I have worked with that "heard from a friend" that this works when it actualality it rarely does)

My only suggestion to you would be that if you find a home you are interested in purchasing, not to be afraid to make an offer (providing it is reasonable) requiring that your agent to do an in-person presentation.

Sincerely,
Francesca Patrizio, Realtor, ePro

Hello, Bobby!
You are right about Chatham market.
It looks like the sellers are not really motivated to sell, who must sell priced their homes accordingly to changing market conditions.

Sincerely,
Yelena Tsuladze

Hi Bobby, yes you are correct and as other posters have said, price is the primary driver to success in today's market. The fact is this, sellers are making a great mistake by overpricing - chasing the falling market is a proven "no win" proposition. While it is unlikely that a home in any market, including Chatham which has held up better than some, what is certain is that the greatest excitement for any home is during is when it is fresh and new to the market. Overpricing during the first 60 days is a big marketing error - you lose the attention of both agents and buyers and may not get it back.

I find that homes continue to sell between 1-5% of their asking price when that asking price hits the proper "strike price". I am a firm believer that if you price properly right out of the gate you will sell a home for a better price than if you try to be clever and price higher than recommended and then adjust downward over time.

Chasing a falling market is much like a dog chasing a car - tough to catch. Not pricing right, or pricing incorrectly and then not adjusting is just silly in this market. An overpriced home will not sell, plain and simple.

And as you point out, the notion that tinkering with the days on the market will fool the public is foolish - buyers are well educated by tools such as Trulia and others. Plus, any agent worth their salt will understand the property's listing history by studying the MLS archives.

Good post Bobby - thanks for inspiring this discussion! Best of luck to you. You can reach me via Trulia and also find me online at http://www.feenick.com

Jeannie Feenick
Search and connect at http://www.feenick.com

I agree! Buyers are aware! Price & Condition are key to selling at top price. Also LOCATION! Chatham is an excellent location/The price drop is estimated to be 1% per month. Therefore both the seller and buyer must do the math.

Go to http://www.anneshearman.com to sign up for the Market Snapshot and receive current sales information in your area.

In order to sell in today's market, the property must be priced properly. Those priced correctly, in top condition , with an excellent marketing plan to attract today's buyer's will sell in a shorter amount of time and at the hghest price. Prices in New Jersey continue to drop each month so it is crucial to price it right. Buyers do their homework and know the days on market along with those that have expired or are withdrawn and relisted.

Carol Eisenstein
Prudential New Jersey Properties
carol.eisenstein@prudentialnewjersey.com

Hi Bobby,
To answer your question, the market makes the selling price. The current market is new to the buyer and seller and there is no recent history that dictates pricing. The current market per Otteau, a NJ real estate economic forcaster, is at 2003 pricing. Not all sellers are willing to move tho that level. There are many factors that go into marketing and pricing a home. The 3 main reasons a home is listed more than 6 months are Price, Location, & Condition. Since August 2008 there has been a slowing in sales reflected in Days on the Market. The current buyer has not ,in most cases, seen economic conditions that are present today.

In Chatham, I would contact an agent and ask this question about the home(s) that you see on the market more than a year. I am only aware of over $2M price points that are experiencing what you are talking about . Feel free to email me the particular home that you are speaking about and I will be happy to provide full disclosure.

There is a just listed property in Chatham for $375K, very well priced !