We are all hoping so......

Shawbitz,

I'd like to tack on to Jay's (hey, Jay!) comment about a new wave of foreclosures headed this way. As Jay mentioned there was a moratorium in place that halted most foreclosures for several months. That was lifted early April. I do some BPO (broker price opinion -- like a mini-appraisal) work for the banks and will tell you that they have HUGELY picked up the last week or two...more than I've seen before. This in an indication that the banks are turning the foreclosures again and they will be hitting the market soon. There was still a large demand for the bank owned homes (typically priced at the bottom of the market) but none hitting the market creating a messed up supply/demand problem. I don't necessarily think the banks will dump them all on the market at once but they are going to be releasing many more in the next few months.

All that said, prices are great in Surprise and long term it will likely be a very nice investment.

Best of luck!

With Your Success in Mind,

Shar Rundio

Shawbitz -

I agree, it's hard to see where one could go wrong in Surprise.

The thing that concerns me is the past few years should have told us a lot. ANYTHING can happen. The frenzy Donald is reporting is **exactly** like the frenzy that took place in many areas across the Valley in 2005ish.

And look what's happened since then.

I just try to caution people to exercise extreme caution. Getting caught up in bidding wars and buying homes above list is a significant part of what happened in 2005. People tend to have very short term memories.

Also keep in mind that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and several large lenders placed moratoriums on foreclosures that are just now being lifted. There is still a lot of short sale inventory in the Valley -- and much of that turns into foreclosed inventory. Personally, I think we'll see another wave of foreclosures as these moratoriums lift and ARMS reset. That there is such a strong "seller's market" in Surprise with no corresponding increase in prices tells me something is amiss. The economic LAW of supply and demand isn't working, and that should be a huge red flag.

Sometimes statistics are not always what they appear to be.

Why don't you take a look at what people purchased out in Surprise in April 2009.

All of these homes are CLOSED, SOLD and 2000+sqft.

This will give you a good idea of what people bought:

Follow this link to see the page:

http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?or4okiu7qy1,12,1

If you would like a DAILY LIST of available homes feel free to contact me via my website below.

I am not expecting this to double but I look at the growth opportunity because of the business development and master plan with the 303 and hospital going in. I cant see Surprise being a bad choice. Back out east 100K gets you a little 1950 shack in a trailer park... I cant believe what 100K gets you in surprise. 2000Sq, mountain views, two stories.

I keep reading that Surprise is really undervalued, If so what is a realistic value for these homes if the numbers speak for them self what should a 100K home go for in Surprise. Is there a Boom in Surprise with Investors and Cash buyers coming in? Is Surprise going to be the largest Apartment complex in America?

Here is my personal opinion based on the statement "Everything in life evens out".

The price of homes is driven by many factors including supply vs. demand, and the affordability factor. The quick old fashion rule of qualifying for a home is to take your gross income for the year for all wage earners in the family (Maricopa County is somewhere around $65,000) and multiply it by a factor of 3 or 4 and that is the maximum price home you can afford ($195,000 to $260,000). This means the majority of people in Maricopa County if they have decent credit, pay their bills on time, have had a job for 2 years can buy a home in this price range.

Ok, lets look at SURPRISE. The media is not reporting the MARKET EXPLOSION of home buyers right now. We are experiencing a bigger BOOM than we did when the prices went up in 2004 and 2005!
Here are the LIVE NUMBERS from our MLS (May 3, 2009):

1,083 Number of homes ACTIVE For Sale in Surprise
612 Number of homes PENDING (Under contract waiting to close)
384 Number of homes SOLD in the month of April 2009 in Surprise

Based on the number of homes SOLD vs. ACTIVE there is only a 2.8 months supply of homes available.
Based on the number of ACTIVE vs. PENDING, there is only a 1.7 months supply of homes.

What does this mean? The market has shifted from a BUYER'S MARKET, skipped the BALANCED MARKET and is now a SELLER'S MARKET (keep in mind this is a one day snapshot).

Supply Vs. Demand
0-3 Months Supply of homes = SELLER'S MARKET
4-6 Months Supply of homes = BALANCED MARKET
6+ Months Supply of homes = BUYER'S MARKET.

SELLING YOUR HOME? Quick over-the-net home evaluation: http://www.623HomeValues.com

This means if there are anyone considering MOVING UP to a bigger home or MOVING DOWN to a smaller home and you have equity, I would love to have a chance to list and sell their home because it is a SELLER'S MARKET in Surprise right now - not a buyer's market!

Keep in mind the market shifted in about 2 months and can shift back just as quickly (i.e. if the banks release a bunch of foreclosed repo homes into the market).

SURPRISE FORECLOSURES - Free list updated daily! http://www.SurpriseAZRepos.com

But for now it is very difficult to buy a home in Surprise because the homes that don't have an offer on it right now have between 2 and 28 competing offers (numbers I have pulled from surveying buyers agents and listing agents) when they do get an offer.

There is an old saying, you don't know where the bottom is until 90 days after it has passed. This could be true for Surprise. We have not seen home prices go up, but we have seen people buying homes for up to 20% above the listed price because they are undervalued in my personal opinion.

If you need more information about the Surprise market feel free to contact me.
I have been a valley resident since 1971.
Donald Keys
623-337-8965 Ext.1

Shawbitz -

If anyone promises you that a home will double in value in the next 5 to 10 years, you should run - not walk - away.

NO ONE can predict future home values.

Sure, development tends to lead to an increase in home value. But then again, over development (which much of the Phoenix area has seen in the past several years) can do the exact opposite.