The realtors all chimed in with their stories of how their clients kind find any properties to buy, but this has NOTHING to do with substantiating the realtors claims that the banks are not holding back inventory. All it does is confirm that the inventory is NOT on the market. So, we all agree that the inventory is NOT on the market, but the realtors claim that it will not come onto the market, but provide no data or facts to support the claim.
See article ~ "Serious Local Homebuyer Activity Ignited ~ Orange County, CA" ~ http://tinyurl.com/njf2w7
Harrion K. Long, Coldwell Banker Previews, Irvine, CA.
There have been several articles cited in this thread that refer to all of the foreclosures nationally that are not on the market. We know that about 100K of these are in California. How many in OC? Deduction would say 10K. I will reiterate that I don't think that if these are released on today's distressed market prices that they will not be absorbed. I just really find it odd that these properties are not on the market.
Reveal who I am? Well, I'm just a homeowner times two. It's not in my interest for property values to decline any further. On top of that, I grew up with my mom being a realtor who specialized in helping first time buyers get into their first home. In a perfect world, I would like to be an agent who helped first time buyers.
I'm not a doom and gloomer. I do have a degree in ecnomics, so I have a tendency to look at data and try and understand what it means. I follow my own very local market out of curiousity/hobby. The inventory is not here, but I can point to a considerable number of homes that should be on the market and they are not.
The few that do come on the market are apalling, not necessarily the properties, but the far below market asking prices with garbage info about the properties. There is one realtor getting the few REO listings that are available and they are doing a crap job of minimizing the banks' losses and creating comps that are literally destroying the market.
You keep saying that you provided the information, but you haven't. All you have done is say that the sources are wrong without giving us your figures and your sources.
Essentially you have taken the position that two credible media sources are completely wrong. Don't you realize that our newspapers and public radio have fact checkers. You have not provided one single piece of data, nor any source other than your fellow realtors shilling for business here, to support a claim that these two sources are wrong.
If you want to make a credible argument that these stories are indeed factually wrong, then do so, but don't just out and out make claims strictly based on your narrow opinion of the market and expect the rest of us to nod our head in agreement.
"We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market," said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac, which compiles nationwide statistics on foreclosures. "California probably represents 80,000 of those homes. It could be disastrous if the banks suddenly flooded the market with those distressed properties.
Somehow Bob I don't think you read or listened to the NPR story.
"Andrew Jakobovics is a housing expert with the Center for American Progress.
Andrew Jakobovics: There are about half a million properties that have been taken in foreclosure that have not yet made it onto the listings of properties that are available for sale.
The banks are doing this because they think they'll get a better offer on the houses if they wait. It's a delicate balance because empty homes don't do anyone much good."
The Center for American Progress is a think tank. These organizations live and breathe current data.
You claim that the data on the foreclosure numbers is 4 months old. The 500,000 figure that are not on the market that I cited was from a credible news source just yesterday. That is not 4 months old.
You are adamant that prices will not go down, which is completely laughable. Every expert (I'm not talking bears, I'm talking people who spent years of schooling learning how to interpret data) out there are saying the prices are still going to decline. They are not saying this because of doom and gloom, they are saying this because all the variables that determine housing prices indicate that the market has further to fall. Granted, the price declines have slowed, but to say that prices won't go down because you've been a realtor for 35 years just doesn't carry a whole lot of weight.
If anyone out there can explain a reason for the banks to keep properties on their books and empty, PLEASE let the rest of us know!!!
So, from New York and Miami, come two equally vague opinions, devoid of statistics, but replete with conjecture, and I am to hold them up as a standard by which to refute the market that we Realtors in the streets of Orange County THINK we are experiencing, but must apparently be some sort of hallucination - does that just about sum up your side of this "debate"?
And now you're back to the original question. Just which part of this inventory "backlog" ( Dawn's choice of word.) is rumor? How's this for a response? What part of this HOT market described by Harrison, among others, really has anything to do with your question? I have attempted to humor your persistence in continuing this feeble - on your part - argument. Again - who cares?
We Realtors in Orange County couldn't care less whether the overly antiquated statistics are even remotely close to being accurate. We have vocalized to you and Dawn, en masse, that we would welcome such a tsunami of foreclosures with open arms, and an army of ready, willing, and able buyers. Again, here is our answer to your "concern" about this impending "disaster". BRING IT ON - PLEASE!
I agree with you that some of the REO homes that do come on the market here in Orange County are not in good shape, with asking prices too low, below market with strategy to get lots of offers. The ones who lose out are people who bid against each other for these properties.
It's up to the lender investors to determine what Realtors and agents they will use for listing of such REO homes. That Realtor who gets the REO listing will pay the price of carrying the cost to clean up and fix the homes, and he or she won't get reimbursed for those costs (as much as $10k per home) until sale takes place with escrow closing.
Such REO listings are a challenge but not destroying the market. We need to get those homes to market and then sold and absorbed, so that we can start again with a cleaner slate and have reasonable basis for positive sold comps and appraisals.
Harrison K. Long, Explore Group Properties, Coldwell Banker Previews.
Here in Orange County, CA, we simply do not have enough REO bank owned homes on the market. The ones with asking prices under $500K that do come to open market, usually get between 10 and 25 separate written offers. So a great majority of the bidders go away disappointed and learn the hard way that we just don't have enough REO homes.
Example: Here in Irvine, CA, we have population of about 200,000 people. We had 197 homes sold during the month of May, 2009. 22 of those sold homes were REO bank owned. Those sold REO homes were on the market an average of less than 30 days.
Conclusion: The local housing market in Irvine is HOT in terms of buyer wants and REOs being sold.
Harrison K. Long, Coldwell Banker Previews, Irvine, CA
Also, if you have information about REO inventory being held back, please cite the reference, so that we can all look it up and learn.
I am always looking to learn something new. If you believe there are REO homes being held from the market, let's all get together and see why that is the case and what will eventually happen when the properties do come to market for listing and sale or by auction.
Harrison K. Long, Coldwell Banker Previews, Irvine, CA
All of you realtors have chimed in and said that the inventory is not here. These articles indicate that the inventory is being held back. You have said this isn't true, so where the heck are these properties if all the realtors are saying that they aren't on the market? Yes, they would be welcome for those that want to buy... The question is where are they, why aren't they are on the market and when they do come to market (because they have to) what will that do to prices.
Bob is always quick to respond, but frankly his crtical thinking and debate skills lead me to conclude that he is just not a very well educated person. He does not say anything that he can back up other than his fellow realtors chiming in about multiple offers. Yes, we know this and know that this has been the case for many months.... but, the question is why aren't all the foreclosures making it to market?
Bob cites that the banks are putting them on as fast as they can. He knows this because there is one property he has spoken to the asset manager about. ONE property. They put them on faster in '08 and have held back in '09. WHY?? WHY WHY? The properties are REO and should be on the market and are NOT making it to the market as fast as the banks can handle them.
And, based on the activity that I have posted in most of your threads, over the past few days, it isn't the least bit relevant in Orange County, California.
When are all you doom and gloom bubble-blog subscribers going to start to pay attention to the LOCAL market conditions? Instead of cutting and pasting their gloomy articles, start paying attention to local ones which are not only more relevant, but they are infinitely more encouraging.
As I said before, Dawn - we local Realtors WISH there were more distressed houses available - for the 5-20 buyers who offer on the increasingly smaller numbers of available listings, who end up not "winning" each property.
I'll say this slowly, Dawn: THERE ARE MANY MORE BUYERS THAN THERE ARE LISTINGS!
THAT is the market, especially under $500k, in Orange County California.
You then followed quickly behind with an extremely vague "article" where a guy we've never heard of, from somewhere else, gives us his "opinion" and stating similar, but equally vague numbers of "stuff out there" somewhere. And you expect us to accept those two instances as authoritative AND current descriptions of the situation? The alleged shadow inventory. So far all I have seen are those two articles, both refering to a statement made by the owner of RealtyTrac - many months ago.
That, to me, is old news. Then, a bunch of agents - not just me - have flittered in and out of Dawns plethora of threads, giving mostly personal, first hand accounts of business as it is happening - today. So, what is it that you don't believe? That there are more buyers than properties - as evidenced by all the multiple offer situations? That the overflow of the multitude of buyers who DIDN'T get one of those properties won't be sufficient to absorb even a potential doubling of the REO inventory? Have you not read any of the local papers? The Register has been reporting these conditions.
So, you'd prefer to just choose to NOT believe Realtors who have come on here to provide answers - most of whom weren't trying to solicit Dawn's business. For your information, none of us get paid to provide answers here - we are trying to be helpful.
And a few of us are not afraid to take on someone who's primary intent is to make Realtors look bad, like Mr. Blue and his baited question of a couple of days ago. With 4 or 5 simultaneous threads, all along the same line of thinking, that's how I saw Dawn. Just trying to bait a local Realtor into admitting or agreeing that this market stinks and is doomed for years, when MOST of us know better - because we are experiencing a groundswell of activity - that your 4 or 5 month old stat sources won't be covering until about November.
So, I'm sorry if you have not been able to glean enough material from these discussions to accept that the articles you both offered might NOT be as relevant as you think - at least not in Orange County.
Both of you should get out a little. Seek some sources other than the totally negative bubble-bloggers. Check out some open houses. Check out the solds being reported. Check out the reduction of inventory of houses. There really is a lot going on - and it does represent a bottoming of our local market, where the median has been climbing for months now. Good luck to both of you.
All of the points and all of the stats HAVE been provided - you're just choosing to not accept them - kind of like I'm not accepting the antiquated data you tried to shoove our way.
Let's just agree to disagree, shall we?
Before the moratorium these banks just dumped the inventory to capture whatever dollars they could in order to avoid what ultimately became a reality. The complete collapse of the market. Right now the priced have wiped out a big percentage of the equity gains from the past decade. In the Bay Area where people have forgotten there is a housing shortage one can now buy affordable housing as long as the inventory lasts and the economy remains stable.
If prices fall more it just means that phantom inventory will sell quicker and we can all get to the business of rebuilding the housing market. Homeowners aren't going to get hurt if they can afford their homes. They will simply be foreced to remain there for longer than they might have expected.
Dawn, what do want to really know?
Will the market continue to collapse? Doubtful. In pockets there multiple offers especially in the lower price points. It must be said it can.
Spike in interest rates would kill things off pretty well. Unemployment spike to 30% (depression era numbers) might do it.
Will the banks "Dump" their inventory?
I'd be willing to bet a lot of this phantom inventoy is being bought out wholesale by specuators for pennies on the dollar. I'd also be willing to bet some of that phantom inventory never gets to the market.
Real estate is the one thing that you cant make any more of.
Andrew Jakobovics: "There are about half a million properties that have been taken in foreclosure that have not yet made it onto the listings of properties that are available for sale."
Where in that statement does the gentleman cite ANY source? Correct, he doesn't. He says about. It is a vague reference to something he has read or heard - period.
Now then. This horse is officially dead.
The whole thing is one big story, ( albeit increasingly old and irrelevant.) with many re-tellers.
Reminds me of the story of 6 blind guys all describing an elephant - from their different vantage points
The article you linked is "QUOTING" or citing the same type of source - RealtyTrac - as the link that Dawn provided, which shows a chart that ends on Feb. 1st. ( And THAT was old news.)
We Realtors here, on these rapidly moving 4 or 5 related adjoining threads have been telling you real news and data from the trenches TODAY.
What you are championing is similar to driving a car forward, while looking in the rear view mirror.
It is time to look around, and to come up to speed, my friend.
So, you can buy now, or next year - the price you pay will likely be the same.
Interest rates, however, will probably be higher.
Stop bouncing around. The answers are here - just stop moving and absorb them - kind of like the inventory of distressed properties in Orange County is being absorbed by more buyers, than properties available.
The inventories of houses available has dwindled, and the number of sales has skyrocketed, with MANY more buyers in the wings, and the median price has steadily nudged upward for the past 4 months.
Shadow inventory? I say, bring it on! Please! We need more inventory here in Orange County.
I am having such a difficult time getting my buyers into homes that I have taken to searching the NOD/Auction/Bank-Owned feature on the MLS. Yes, there are a ton of Notice of Defaults being issued, however, many of these will likely be modified loans, the homeowners will catch up on payments, or they may be short-sales. You are correct in some areas there are quite a few homes that have been taken back by the bank that have not hit the market. Those are the ones that I am anxiously awaiting hitting the MLS.
My point is this, in support of several of my colleagues answers, there are so many people trying to purchase homes that this inventory is needed and will not greatly affect pricing in most neighborhoods. Certainly the high end market could be affected by bank activity, but any home that can be purchased with a conventional loan is hot stuff. What will affect our market the most will be a hefty rise in interest rates. THAT will change the tide.
Please read and then respond.
This article indicates 70% of "Shadow" inventory not on market held by banks.
Frankly, with the multiple offer buyer activity in the lower price ranges of Orange County, it would be a welcome sight to see some additional inventory.
If you are a home owner, I wouldn't be too concerned that this "alleged" shadow inventory is going to have much of an effect - if ANY - on prices in Orange County, where the median price has been nudging up for the past couple of months.
If you're a buyer, then welcome some additional inventory to choose from.
Either way, it looks like a win/win scenario for Orange County, California - IF it's real.