Home Buying in 33174>Question Details

Jaime, Home Buyer in Miami, FL

Timing the Markent is not a easy task. Is it possible that home prices will continue to fall in South Florida?

Asked by Jaime, Miami, FL Mon May 17, 2010

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Answers

15
I do have an answer!!! and it is "YES" they will keep falling for a long time.
Want to know why? Well there are 11 millions properties all over United States called " Shadow Inventory"
These are the owners that are in process of Loan Modifications, or short selling on their own, or simply like in Florida living for free.
The Supreme Court of Florida in and Administrative Order Dec 28, 2009 orders that no foreclosure will be allow in Florida of any kind without a Mediation. And of course if you are lucky you can get an appointment for Mediation next year. This means that all those owner we won't know if they will go or qualify for a Loan Mod, or a short sale or finally for a foreclosure that will bring this house to the market.
Florida alone has more than 4 Millions of these Shadow Inventory. and I ' m not considering what is now so popular " Strategic Defaults" that eventually will bring a couple more millions to the market, With such inventory in the horizon Supply will be extremely abundant and what happens then.
The unavoidable law of Demand and Supply will play its roll impacting a big hit on prices.
The more supply the less you pay and viceversa.
However this is not all across the board. some ares are keeping prices steady and firm, but overall will keep coming down.
Regards
Miguel Soria
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
I am an Economist!

and in the trade it is said there are two types of Economist.

Those that KNOW they can't predict the future
and

Those that Don't know they can predict the future,

looks as if U of F
falls for the latter.

Lets say the the Euro fails, As I think it will

IMF goes in again to stop -
USA bleeds another 2 to 3 Trillion in short term

So Leon, it PIIGS fail what happens??

John
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Unfortunately, none of us answer with certainty, as none of knows where the market will head tomorrow or down the road--much will depend on general and local economic factors, and interest rates--who knows when the rates will inch up, how fast, how much, etc.
1 vote Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Anything is possible. But most areas have hit rock bottom prices I believe. Some areas are already seeing some appreciation in values. Alot depends on the area and inventory etc..
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 18, 2010
Jaime,
Are you working with a great agent in your target area? If not, you should be. You can also keep an eye out on Trulia. There are some wonderful agents in all areas of the country here. If you find a good listing agent, you will find that they constantly have the pulse of the market. I can not tell you about Miami, however, I can tell you that Port St. Lucie has bottomed out and is starting recovery. It is not the same in every Florida market or across the country. Just find a great agent in YOUR target market and you will be OK. You also might want to follow some Blogs in your target area. Blogging the market conditions is one of my favorites!

Debbie Albert, PA
Coldwell Banker Residential
Web Reference: http://www.ronanddebbie.net
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 18, 2010
Beth,

Miami Broker Soria really makes some great points.

What say you to them?

Now data shows Miami inverntory is up a good deal yoy, and MOM giving Soria
real solid footing.

See: "analyses of markets with asymmetric information"

Now as a Chicago Econ guy, a follower of the late Dr. Friedman, I think supply, and "comming" supply as Soria details will have a great deal to do with prices in the future.

A GREAT DEAL!!!!!

Now Beth, if you couple up what Soria says with the news from Freddie,
news form IMF, Paul V comments what do you get?

Stats are a rear view mirror, and 38 % is a misleading number, its raw salesand Median!!!!
well over 50% if done by per square foot.

Beth first you say:

" By the time we know it is the bottom it is on the way up. And as much as people do not believe us (realtors), we see prices going up already. ESPECIALLY in well priced oceanfront or waterfront buildings. I have lost units becasue of multiple offers, it happens daily all over Miami. "

and then you say:

"More than three years after the economy started its downward slide, the Miami metro area, like a handful of Sun Belt cities, still hasn't begun to recover. Median home prices in Miami have fallen 38% since its market peaked in the second quarter of 2007; the city's 11% unemployment rate is above the national average and has grown more than most of the 40 cities we surveyed."

Wondering, why might: " people do not believe us (realtors"

Would you be a two handed ecomonist -?
on one hand:
"hasn't begun to recover"
and on the other hand:
"we see prices going up already"

Beth, your words, not mine.

and the question is not Simple!

My vote for best answer goes to Anna, and most and best reasoned projection to Soria.
Thumbs up to both.

John
0 votes Thank Flag Link Tue May 18, 2010
Thanks for the playground John, but if you had scrolled to the bottom of my post you would have seen the FORBES link.

This is a forum for answering questions to consumers in our market area and you have strayed way outside of those bounderies.

I apologize to Jaime for this and I will refrain from responsding on this thread any longer as it has gone beyond answering his very simple question,

Regards,
Beth Jenkins
South Florida Brokers
Web Reference: http://www.arealtyteam.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
and yes good cuban food adds at least 50% to the price of a home

no maybe no
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
No problem Beth but I requested your data not your warm and fuzzy feelings

Where do you get your stats from

you say you know your stats just tell us where do you get them?/
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Hi Jamie,
I agree with Beth, prices are rising in certain price points. We are getting multiple offers on well priced homes and the European and Canadian buyers are picking properties up left and right. If this is something you would like to use as an investment or second home you can not go wrong, if you choose the right property. Our Gulf access homes were well below the 30% mark, not anymore. I wish you the best of luck.

Have a great night,
Nancy


Nancy Doyle
239-209-2237
nancy.doyle1@comcast.net
http://www.nancydrealtor.net
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
See below,
This is my market, I live and breath it and know my stats,

"Miami boasts a popular South Beach club scene, Art Deco Architecture, and perhaps the best Cuban food in the country. But residents don't have much else to celebrate.

More than three years after the economy started its downward slide, the Miami metro area, like a handful of Sun Belt cities, still hasn't begun to recover. Median home prices in Miami have fallen 38% since its market peaked in the second quarter of 2007; the city's 11% unemployment rate is above the national average and has grown more than most of the 40 cities we surveyed."

Forbes, April13, 2010
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/us-cities-in-free-fall

Beth Jenkins
South Florida Brokers
786-374-4778
Web Reference: http://www.arealtyteram.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Below is one possibility. Look for more details.

http://www.housingpredictor.com/florida.html

(city) (price change during 2010))
Miami − 13.8%
Naples − 8.5%
Palm Beach − 10.4%
Fort Lauderdale − 7.4%
Orlando − 9.2%
Jacksonville − 9.0%
Tallahassee − 6.8%
Tampa − 7.1%
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Beth

30%????

need to see your data for that number.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
Hi Jaime,
As you stated, it is not possible to time the market.
What is possible is to unequivocally state that teh market HAS come down at least 30% in most cases and is beginning to stablalize along the beaches and the eastern part of the city.
You will never be the last guy to buy, but it is fairly certain that if you purchase in South FLorida now or in the near future you will be in the bottom 10% of the "lowest" and that is pretty good. By the time we know it is the bottom it is on the way up. And as much as people do not believe us (realtors), we see prices going up already. ESPECIALLY in well priced oceanfront or waterfront buildings. I have lost units becasue of multiple offers, it happens daily all over Miami.

If I can assist you feel free to contact me!

Beth Jenkins
South Florida Brokers
786-374-4778
Web Reference: http://www.arealtyteam.com
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
"Results of our first quarter survey indicate that the real estate market in Florida has hit bottom and is in the process of stabilizing across most property types," says Timothy Becker, director of UF's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

Well that is what a new study from the University of Florida is saying. Florida’s housing market shows the first tentative signs of recovering from the most painful recession in the state’s history, according to the latest UF report.
0 votes Thank Flag Link Mon May 17, 2010
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