Lets see:

1. we have an 8K credit scheduled to end in a couple months for new home buyers. Why did they offer this credit? to get people buying! what happens when it ends? well, apparently, "nobody knows, and anybody who thinks... is a liar!" [but sense everybody able to think about it is a liar, what happened after cash for clunkers incentive? sales dropped back to the prior level. what happened after the California 10K new home buying incentive ended? sales crashed.]

2. we have foreclosures being delayed due to attempted workouts, and this springs moratoriums. In maricopa, there were 23,000 homes in foreclosure in January, there are 50,000 now.

The crystal ball / nobody knows nonsense is wearing thin. Some of us actually study these things...

"Only Realtors care about sales"

The economic law of Supply and Demand is a major factor in home PRICES. So everyone, not just Realtors, should care about sales. Lowering available inventory is a major component in stabilizing prices. Inventory gets lowered thorough sales.

"Found the Bottom" - so because one person, Meredith Whitney, thinks prices will continue to decline that makes it fact?

Who knows? Could prices decline further? Of course. Could they flatten out? Yep. Could they increase? Sure.

No one freaking knows what this market will do and anyone that says they do is a liar.

Real estate *is* local. Tempe *does* act somewhat differently than other surrounding areas. Is it immune? Of course not.

Is it the right time for the questioner to buy? As I said in the link to the article I posted earlier, maybe, maybe not.

Looks like Robert is right: "House Prices to Fall Another 30%"

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/meredith-whitney-h…

I am sure Pro's will disagree.

Robert -

You ask an *extremely* difficult question to answer. Maybe impossible.

Here's an article I wrote at the beginning of March. Just substitute "Tempe" where you see "Phoenix"

http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/is-now-a-good-time-to-bu…

I'm glad someone from Palo Alto, CA is familier with the Tempe, AZ market :). May not be bad advice, but his crystal ball is probably just as good as yours or mine.

Tempe's home values have generally remained more stable than most Phoenix metro cities, similar to Scottsdale. Many fewer foreclosures. Single family home sellers are less willing to compete with bank properties. Condo market is more volatile, more bank owned, and seem to be reaching price points attractive to buyers, particularly around ASU. Bank homes in general are selling quickly and are the majority of sales.

I have some more info on the Tempe market and area on my blog. Feel free to contact me to discuss.

Robert -

Is the Tempe Market going to slide any further ?

We are seeing really great news in the real estate market.....A report I received this morning from a major title company shows that, as of 4-6-09 there are 10,375 single family homes in escrow and a total of 11, 881 homes in escrow pending a closing. Many Many more in closing than we have seen in a great many months !!

The report goes on to state that the closest parallel to this is the 2005 2006 time frame.

All of a sudden, home sales in the Valley Metro area are firing up !!

That said, should you wait a little longer ? Probably not. It is very hard to buy at the absolute low ( whether homes or stock market ) just as it is very hard to sell at the absolute high. The best you can do is buy some where around the low and sell some where around the high........if we can do this.....we will do well.

Could prices slide as much as 35 or forty percent ? ( more ? ) Very doubtful.

If you decide to go forward and make a purchase, please contact me, I'll be glad to help. Go to either of my websites......RepoInfo4FREE.com or HotNewListings4FREE.com for more information.

Good Luck !