IMHO, balance out the "macro" outlook with the "micro" -- ask yourself how extendible or important you are to the company. In other words, doesn't necessarily mean you are important because you are the best or most efficient at what you do - are you on good terms with The Powers that Be? You're going to be treated like a number if you behave like one.

Hi Peter,

Thank you for your reply. We are all confused to some degree. We are in a unique market. There is no denying that there is a great deal of uncertainty out there. We just illustrated a great example as to why uncertainty exists with these two articles from the same publication.

People just don't know what to think anymore because of the constant bombardment of bad news. My point is only to say try not to focus too heavily on the negative and also look at the positive indicators. Grace points on many areas of improvement. Keep a balanced outlook, continue doing your research and you will make the right decision at the right time for you.

All the best to you,
April

Hello Peter and thanks for your email and post.

I've read most of your comments in the past two weeks and I agree with you that the economy is shedding jobs, however, this is just one component of the overall economic picture--and while significant--it is not the only component of the economy. Further, as most economists are noting today, while the number of layoffs continue, the amount of national job retraction is less than anticipated AND has been steadily declining in the past months. I also like to point out that the jobs figures now are based on 'raw data' and don't really shape up for about 90 days, so it will be interesting to see how the numbers are modified in the near future. Couple this "lessening of the worsening" (so to speak) with an retail economy that has actually grown 7 percent in the past quarter, a recovery in the stock markets, financial markets, and spending in the private sector, and I'm prepared to say that we just might be past the "bottom".

Does this mean that its still a bad time to buy homes or that housing prices will continue to fall dramatically, as you have suggested in other posts? I am prepared to say no. Despite the worsening jobs news, we are seeing a lot more activity on homes available in Santa Clara now. Appropriately priced, attractive homes are selling and obtaining multiple offers. My counterparts in our company in San Mateo County and San Francisco are also reporting similar spikes of welcome activity. The DOMs (days on market) numbers are also dropping, so, at least for now, things are looking a bit better than I think any of us had anticipated.

The point most Realtors are making now is that, if this not the "bottom" of the market, it is pretty darned close, and waiting until you hit a rock bottom or taking the strategy of buying on the upswing may cause you to lose the chance to purchase a suitable home at an affordable price. As an example, I sold my home in San Jose in June 2008 (yes, the price fell from its high in February 2008 but I could see the market falling so I sold), and bought in October 2008 in the Cupertino Middle School/Homestead High School area of Sunnyvale near Los Altos. While home prices continued to fall in Sunnyvale in November and December, I was comfortable that I had purchased a home for less than it had sold for in the past year. Today, surrounding homes in my neighborhood are UP $100,000 from my purchase price in October, 2008, so I am ahead in a down economy. Admittedly, this is not possible in all areas, but the vast majority of homeowners who purchased in Santa Clara in October, November and December, a large majority are seeing their investments show a small profit as of this spring.

So, in essence, I agree with you that the jobs are being lost, but I respectfully disagree that the current losses are significant enough to further erode the housing market here. There are too many other factors currently in play (such as lowered housing prices, credit, loans, interest rates) that are offsetting the other negative factors created by job losses. I also don't think that you'll see as many homes on the market this year as in the past, so inventory may not increase dramatically as it has in the past years at this time.

Of course, as I've said before, I can be wrong--there are too many other issues at play and far too much investor emotion in the market for me to say, with concrete assuredness that what I'm seeing (some market recovery) will accelerate anytime soon. Let's just say I'm "bullish" on the economy for the remainder of the year, and if I'm wrong, well, I'm going to owe a lot of people lunch.... : )

Thanks again for your post. This is just my two cents on the issue of the economy and I appreciate and value your input on this and other posts.

Sincerely,
Grace Morioka, SRES, e-Pro
Area Pro Realty

Hi Peter,

I think everyone needs to take a balanced approach and take stock of their own situtation. The media swings both ways and often leans towards dwelling on the negative as it usually sells better.

Take a look at this article printed in the San Jose Mercury news just two weeks ago, March 31, 2009.

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_12032202

The headline reads: Tech offers relative job security, statistics show. Here is an excerpt:

"Despite layoffs at tech stalwarts like Google, IBM, Microsoft and Electronic Arts, the impact of the recession on the tech industry is likely to be far less severe than on other areas of the economy, recent labor statistics suggest.

That's good news for California, which has close to 1 million high-tech jobs, according to TechAmerica, an industry lobbying group that is releasing a report today on the high-tech economy.

Last year, as the recession took hold, the tech industry as a whole added 77,000 new jobs, while the private sector as a whole lost about 800,000 jobs, according to the Cyberstates 2009 report.

Gains in the software industry alone, which added 86,200 new jobs, more than made up for job losses in manufacturing and communications, which together cut 36,000 jobs. Indeed, even in the fourth quarter, when pink slips were handed out around the country, 12,600 new jobs in software opened up, according to the Cyberstates 2009 report."

All the best,
April