What we're seeing now is more than an over stocked real estate market; it is a slump in consumer confidence as oil prices soar, affecting the cost of nearly everything else (cuz it ain't grown or built at Walmart), while home equity (the cash machine of the 90s) is falling. As soon as people realize that job growth is more important than holding inflation in check (that horse is already out of the barn), people will realize that good real estate deals in the Bay Area are generally rare. When people realize how incredibly motivated builders are to move inventory, the slump will end.

I'm buying my dream home this month in Mountain House. If it takes this market 5 years to correct itself, I will not regret it. In all reality, however, look for these important milestones to herald the end of real estate bargains:
-- the presidential election (public confidence boost)
-- the announcement of troop withdrawls (more consumer confidence)
-- the 5% mortgage rate (who could resist)
-- expansion of home improvement tax credits (the renters will think twice)
-- new state programs for recently foreclosed home buyers (some should be back in the game)
-- criminal conviction of scandalous loan originators (some should be out of the game)
-- new home prices start to rise (price per sq. ft.)

Sun May 4 2008, 05:27

You don't know where the bottom is untill you are on a up swing on prices ! then you can say thers was bottom! until then we will continue to Roll back prices like Wal Mart .

It is very true that some areas of the country have already recovered and some up to 5yrs from now ...........goes back to Location Location !

Wed Nov 14 2007, 21:32

Wow! Jim, that's quite a statement! I don't know about the relationship....but the timing seems about right for most of the country. One should add that all real estate is LOCAL. What is happening in one location is not happening in another and in some regions of the country, now is the time to buy. As my father says to me..."No one rings a bell when the market bottoms!"

Wed Nov 14 2007, 21:06

Grant, I agree with Jim. The Buyer's market will end in 2009. I am just not so sure it will be quite as interesting as Jim predicts...and the peak of the buyer's market or bottom, as it is incorrectly referred to,
is commonly found after you missed it...

http://www.MichaelRobertsHomes.com

Wed Nov 14 2007, 19:04

THE LAST ANSWER THAT JIM HAS STATED IS VERY LIKELY ! BUT THE HOUSING DEPENDS ON THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE AREA YOU WISH TO LIVE .
SUNBELT AREAS OF THE NATION WILL FAIR BETTER THAN OTHER AREA BY FAR . BABY BOOMERS ARE HERE .,SNOW BIRDS AND CANADIANS WILL PURCHASE WITH THERE INCREASING DOLLAR THOSE GROUPS HAVE CASH ON HAND AND ARE READY TO SPEND ! THEY HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR 2 YEARS NOW !

Wed Nov 14 2007, 12:24

Here is my neck.... Jan 20th 2009 George W Bush's final day in office will be the bottom of the real estate market.
Home values will start to climb a little after noon eastern time that day.

Wed Nov 14 2007, 11:21

Property values will adjust untill they can be affordable by someone with a median income for this specific area.
Generally speaking: the price will adjust to the value as it was in 2000 and the add 40%.: result= fair price.

Tue Nov 13 2007, 22:13

I think there is still some time to wait in mountain house and Tracy, or any other valley town. The jobs are not there to support the prices, and with all the new construction the builders will continue to undercut. If you have a long term plan make sure you get a screaming deal, otherwise wait it out for that area. Bay area is a different story.

Tue Nov 13 2007, 18:16

I know this for sure you'll know when the bottom is like most people ....after you've missed it! buying real estate isn't day trading...it's musical chairs and you better grab a chair if you are a buyer!.... investors are jumping in.... thatls how they get rich....why don't you? what is your story? best regards.....kurt steinhebel. century 21....orange county ca

Tue Nov 13 2007, 18:08