Generally the amount of REO's and Short Sales has lessened in the last 10 months or so. This is due primarily to us just going thru the bulk of distressed homes already. Normal sales have been a little harder to track, but in the Fall, normal sales typically slow down a little as we start to near the holiday season.
So for the Napa Valley area, I don't see anything that would indicate the stock of homes would go up in the fall.
The key is to monitor the listings daily. Or better yet, have an agent that is helping you research and keeping you updated as soon as a new listing comes up - the same day. Another thing to do, is to re-evaulate how your offers are being written. Sometimes there are small changes we can make that help our offer look more appealing, make a seller trust our offer more, and/ or sometimes there are ways to make the seller's agent prefer to work with us. Every bit helps.
Robert Juarez, Broker/ Agent
Just an aside, this is a wonderful place to live and our trees are already turning fall colors. You need to spend some quality time enjoying our unique lifestyle.
Good luck and if I can be of further assistance, let me know.
Wine Counter Group
Historically, the market in Napa in the Fall slows down from what the Summer pace of activity has been, particularly in "family" homes as fewer families are mobile after school has begun.
Having said that, there is much less of that effect as the price range increases. There is a pretty good supply of homes over $700K in Napa and fewer candidates qualified to purchase such homes.. Additionally, we are seeing a lot of asking price decreases in homes in the $700K and up price range... ie, your upper limit of $800K may be your $$$ limit but there are likely homes with asking prices currently above $800K that will be seeing price reductions as the market slows this Fall..
Patience and persistence will win for you... and perhaps a bit of an upward expansion of your search "radar".
Robert is right, watch to see what comes on the market each day. Also look at what's on the market and determine if you need to adjust your requirements a little or be willing to buy a home you could remodel to meet your needs.
Best of luck!