Scott,

Honeslty, the only way to do so is to identify your lcoation of choice and ask your Realtor to provide list/sell ratios in the area . . . an ardous task that not everyone is willing to undertake due to the time committment.

Unfortunatley, in this market, in my view, list prices are meaningless as despite the market condititions sellers continue to over price. You would be better off requsting market comparable analysis (a truer indication of market condtions v. list prices) via time period to better deermine the declinging/stablizing market condition.

Be aware that NJ is not as bad off as say Californai, Florida or Nevada. All indications are that due to current conditioins., low interest rate opportunities (proivding you have a great credit score and money to put down), now until Q4 of 2009, now is a decent time as any to consider purchasing. 2010 is expected to flatline with 2011 seeing minor appreication. So if you look at the big picture, the price that you pay today may very well be the same price that you pay in 2011 and who knows if the First-time buyer incentive will still be available in 2011.

Lots to consider.

Hope this helps!

Francesca Patrizio, Realtor, ePro

Scott,
When purchasing a home, especially your first home, it's important that you contact a buyer agent who will help you with the process. They can access fairly quickly the public records of properties that are sold. They can find the tax records that show current tax rates. Most agents will find what the house sold for in the past and can give you an idea of what price you should offer in the current market. They cannot tell you what price to offer, that's for you to decide, but they can give you an idea of the range you should be targeting.
If you are that close to purchasing a home, you should know a few more things. First, save as much money as you can for the down payment and closing costs. An agent can assist you with estimates. You will need to be ready to pay for money owed to the seller that has been prepaid. Taxes, gas, oil, etc are often paid in advance and need to be prorated for your use. Get a loan you can afford! Loan companies are more stringent with their qualifications, however they are still allowing you to borrow more than you might feel comfortable with owing in a volatile housing market. For the next year, budget your money as if you own that home.
Lastly, sign up with an agent now and monitor the market. Then when you are ready to move on a house, you have a working knowledge of what the house is worth in that area. You might also find a great foreclosure or short sale that gets you into a home sooner than you think. Good Luck!

Scott,

The direction of ALL residential real estate prices is down.

The MBS market is not functioning anywhere near even 1996 levels. Particularly relevant in places like E Cliffs, E Hill Englewood, Tenafly, Alpine etc. $1,000,000 home, bring $300,000 cash minimum, $2,000,000 bring $600,000 cash and so on.

Sellers still asking ether prices from the no money down go go days.

Not to worry there will be plenty of houses to choose from as time goes on and prices will fall much further as the banks realize their survival depends on unloading any "non-performing" assets (generous banksta terminology). Plenty of empty houses in ECliffs particularly, I guess the builders dont follow how homes get financed.

Scott,
I don't know why you are waiting 1-2 years to buy, but if it is in hopes of the prices continuing to fall, you might want to rethink it. According to an interesting article in Time magazine last month, it will cost you more to wait for the prices to come down another 2-4% by getting a mortgage with a higher rate, than it would be to buy now while the rates are low. Just thought you should know. If you would like a copy of the article emailed to you, contact me via trulia or my website.

Hi Scott,

The answer to both questions is yes. It is basically a research project for your agent, since all the data is available in one place and time on the MLS system.

List price vs sale price is the the tougher of the two to monitor. Since many properties are listed multiple times in a slow market, you have to take each closed sale and analyze it individually vis-a-vis its initial list date. You also have to factor out homes that were eventually foreclosed, and homes that received significant renovations during the listing period to enhance their marketability. Not conceptually difficult, but potentially time consuming.

Listing price trend is more straightforward and is a fairly easy search in most MLS systems.

If you have any more questions on this, contact me via my website. Save up as big a down payment as you can and look me up in a couple of years!

-Marc