I agree with Dunes in many ways. I would like to add a few comments and sources.
When considering market value, make sure the sources you're using give you CLOSED or SOLD prices. Not listing or asking prices. The list prices indicate several things including how realistic the sellers are, the group of buyers who will look at the property, etc. The SOLD price is what the market (buyer) was willing to pay. It also shows that an appraiser thought the property was worth at least that amount (typically and if a mortgage was obtained). List prices only indirectly show the market trend. Too many people believe that the asking prices indicate where the market is going.
I would also add this valuable site:
This is the Corcoran Guides page. You'll find the well-known Corcoran Report and many other tools. Please don't think that I'm only offering this source because I work with Corcoran. I used this information long before I moved to Corcoran because it's accurate and easy to understand. The information is unbiased and verified through several places.
I would also like to offer that many of my contacts within the banking world all agree that interest rates will not go up any time soon. A strategy to jump start the economy is to lower interest rates. Currently, the rate is 0%. It is possible for a government to actually put the rate into the negative; however, that strategy was employed by Japan and Sweden (for foreigners only). While Sweden's "special case" worked, Japan's economy during negative interest has been described as a "nuclear winter." While this is not the forum to fully discuss the impact of interest rates and what controls/determines them, I feel confident that the rates will remain pretty stable (low) for a while. Don't panic.
With all of that said, no one can accurately predict what the market will do with 100% certainty. At the end of the day, all predictions are educated guesses. I suppose the trick is to find the opinion with the most education behind it.
I hope the above is helpful. Good luck on your search.
John R. Wuertz
Market ... New York City and Area Home Sale Activity
Data is for the third quarter of 2009
Reporting resale single family residences and condos as well as new homes
* % Change is from the same period last year
New York Real Estate Overview
Manhattan Market Overview 3Q 2009 [PDF] Archives..
A quarterly survey of Manhattan co-op and condo sales.
Manhattan Rental Market Overview 3Q 2009 [PDF] Archives
A quarterly survey of Manhattan residential rentals
Sales can increase but that does not mean the Price decline has stopped rather that the current continuing Price decline has put more homes into what buyers consider an affordable range.....
What does the unemployment look like, the amount of loan defaults, inventory ect. are things among others to consider....
An Agent does not make a living unless people are Buying so for many the "Good time to buy" is more inspired by wanting to make a living than the actual Market..(Not saying that's true of anyone in this thread)
It is the Buyer who has a large Financial obligation and possible Financial loss at stake and that is exactly the reason it is the Buyers responsibility to become as informed as possible from as many sources as possible to protect themselves and make wise decisions..
There is a ton of information available to the Public..Reports, Trends, Sales info ect. on the internet....
It's your money so make it your business that any information you intend to consider from any source is checked, compared and verified by YOU.......
November Price Reductions - Top 50 U.S. Cities
Rank City State Reductions (%)
32 New York NY 27% 12%
Best of luck and good hunting
That's a great question. It seems that the NYC market has picked up recently in terms of transactions. Prices are flat. There are varying opinions from the mortgage people, appraisers and others in the industry that I speak with regarding where we are going pricewise. Certainly not any significant drops, certainly not skyrocketing back up any time soon. Probably we'll stay in a pretty narrow range for some time. Interest rates, however, could start creeping up which would make the same property at the same price more costly in terms of monthly expenses. There are some great deals out there now and it is a great time to snatch one up. It's a great time to get yourself a really good agent to take you through the process and snag something now that will appreciate well in about 5 years.
Halstead Property, LLC
Lynne Figman, Esq.