BEST ANSWER
The inventory in around the Shaver Lake area is overwhelming when it comes to cabins and vacant lots. The inventory for homes is around 85 right now; however only 20 properties have sold in the last 6 months as of today 7/31/2008.
The inventory of vacant lots is continues to break all-time records and right now there are around 100 lots for sale on the MLS. This does not include a large number of lots at Quartz Mountain that are not listed on the MLS currently, but are being sold directly by the developer. Lot sales are a disaster given the fact only 3 have closed escrow in the first 7 months of this year.
The majority of the lots for sale are 25-30% overpriced in my opinion and sellers are being unrealistic and unreasonable because buyers are just not going to pay those inflated prices anymore. The majority of the lots for sale have been on the market for 2 years or more so this downturn may take another 3 years to play out because the number of transactions has declined sharply.
Foreclosures are happening in and around the Shaver Lake area so that may be your best bet right now. There are a few on the open market right now and 6 or 7 that will soon be reposed by the banks that may offer them for big discounts to move them off their books.
When looking out to 2009 I see a market with a large inventory overhang from 2008 at Shaver Lake for both homes and lots. This could change if something huge happens in the market place; but it would need to take place quickly because summer will be over in 30 days and that will finish off the busy season at Shaver. The market will face downward pressure on prices for some time to come mainly because prices were going straight up from the late 1990's to about 2006 when the market peaked at Shaver.
The high end demand for homes of $1 million and more is dead in fact in the last six months not one sale has occurred in this price range.
High gas prices are no friend to the Shaver Lake real estate market so if the gas prices plunge that might improve sales going forward to some degree. Too many speculators who purchased at the beginning of this decade are running for the exits and this has caused a tremendous amount of inventory. I was just up in the Shaver area last weekend and I did not see too many people looking at property in general. One thing is for certain if you can find a property way below market value it might be worth it because you do not have much competition from other buyers right now.
Time is on your side when it comes to the Shaver Lake real estate market without a doubt.
This may be the best buyers market today in the 29 years I have gone to Huntington and Shaver areas; however this buyers market will continue for a few more years because this is not the bottom of the market.
Thu Jul 31 2008, 16:30
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