I don't see the market declining in Boulder County over the next 12 months. Longmont has experienced a little more stability since the number of distressed properties on the market has reduced. Latest statistics from Longmont reveal that the average selling price is very close to what is was a year ago at the same time.
Boulder County, in general, has actually experienced a slight increase in markets like Boulder, Lyons, and Louisville. If the lending environment becomes more flexible (as is expected), home prices will increase as the buyer demand increases.

It is also important to remember that you may qualify for the $8000 first time home buyer credit if you purchase and close before November 30, 2009. First time home buyer is defined as anyone who has not owned a home in the past 3 years. The credit is actually like a tax refund in that your income tax liability for 2009 will be reduced by $8000 or, if you are to receive a refund then it would be incresed by $8000. You can use that credit toward down payment and closing costs as well.

I am not sure about Longmont but here's the Denver Metro stats. We appear to be in recovery mode. We went into the down turn before most of the country and we seem to be coming out before most of the country. Our Team is seeing multiple offers on just about every deal now, our office as a whole is seeing many multiple offers.

Current Market Stats (Metrolist)

20,689 Properties Sold in the last 6 months
16,775 Active Listings on the Market
Absorption Rate = 4.86 months
Decrease in Inventory of 18.6%
Average Days on Market - 93
Sales to List Price Ratio
97% of current list price
90% of original list price

An absorption rate of 6 months is considered a balanced market. Less then 6 months is more of a sellers market.

Sandy

Thanks for all your answers. They do provide a lot of insight.

We are chosing the lease option to buy option because of the market instability (job, housing, cost of living, 401K/investments,etc...). Interest rates are great right now but the other RISKS are too high for our situation since we own a multi million dollar business with all the tax right offs needed. We have a lot of equity in business and good debt as well.

Thanks again,
KB

Kr,

Kurt didn't say much but what he said is powerful.....real estate markets are local in nature. There are locations where pricing is going to be stable and other areas where prices may drop 20+ percent in 2009.

If you are playing the waiting game we suggest you do so by continuing to collect information and being informed. Regardless of what you are hearing.....this is a great time to buy smart.

Here's one of those broad media things that must mean zilch.....http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666…

This might be considered one of those outside factors...or this....http://www.bls.gov/LAU/ ...unemployment rates..

Lots of evil media reporting...http://realestatedecline.com/

It all does depend on a lot of factors so becoming aware of these things will help you better understand your market area and choices..Be informed, check the information people have given you against other sources and make a wise financial decision..

http://www.bhgrealestate.com/Views/Look/Default.aspx ...public record based info..It may all tell you to buy or not, it's your financial committment so make yourself prepared

Best of luck, Dunes..

First things first..Real Estate is local to a certain degree. All areas and price ranges are not effected equally or to the same degree at the same time.

On a lease option, you would be betting that your market will be going up. The homeowner is trying to lock you in to a set price to purchase next year. Not many renters would make that bet right now.

One more afterthought: What are interest rates going to be one year from now? They are currently at 5%. A one percent increase in the borrowing rate %5 -%6 on a $200,000 home is equal to $2000 extra interest a year or almost $170 a month.

If you have a lease option you are protected in the fact that if home values rise you won't lose out on gains and if values drop, you only lose the option price. This is not a bad idea if you like the house that you are renting and plan to purchase it anyway. Some things to think about:

- Owner may not want to sell it for FMV if prices drop 20%.

- You should calculate the cost of renting vs. the cost of buying, in many areas it will actually cost you less money per month to own than rent (especially after tax deductions and principal reduction)

- The housing market will probably not improve in 2009 however desirable neighborhoods and cities have been holding their value - the economy is strong here in Colorado which should help hold values steady

- If homes in your neighborhood are renting for approximately the same amount as a mortgage there is not much room for depreciation

- When home prices start to rise (I could only guess when that is) there will most likely be panic buying with little inventory causing a dramatic rise in prices before everything levels out

In Longmont there were 63 houses sold last month out of 422 listed giving approximately 6.7 months of inventory. History shows that when there is 6 months inventory that the market is equal (same numbers of buyers and sellers) When it is above 6 months inventory it is a buyers market (good for you prices decreasing) and if it is below 6 months it is a sellers market (bad for you prices rising).

Boulder county plains - 20 months supply
Erie - 10 months
Broomfield -11 months
Boulder - 7.2 months
Superior - 5.3 -Desirable area with prices holding


I work with a lot of investors that have similar concerns to yours. If you would like to go over some detailed numbers more specific to your situation please contact me.

Dave Janis
Dave@stellarproperties.net
303-442-5001

Whether or rent or buy really depends on a lot more factors outside of the amount of inventory in the market. For instance ability to purchase now vs. stricter lending guidelines in the future. Interest rates now vs. where they might be in the future. Your own personal situation such as the time frame you plan on staying in the area and the home along with job stability are also important factors. I would point out that current (Dec) Denver Market Area inventory levels are quite a bit lower then in both Dec of 2006 & 2007, by approximately 4500 total units or roughly 20%. In addition the absorption rate (time it takes to sell current inventory at current rate of sale) is lower as well down from around 33 weeks to 26. It is actually a seller's market in much of the metro area on homes priced below $200k so the price point at which you buy can also be important in deciding to purchase now or in the future. Within every market there are many sub markets I think the prudent thing to do is find an agent who specializes in the market and price you think you will want to purchase in and get the facts on what's happening with inventory levels and prices to determine if you really might be better off waiting.

all Real Estate is Local, broad generalizations made in the media mean zilch.

I think this is a question you my answer yourself. Markets are different all over the country and there are not 1.5 Million homes on the market in Longmont. Maybe a Local Longmont Realtor will answer this question to fill you in on local Market Conditions.
Good luck on your home search, Brian http://www.denverrealestatesoup.com

A lease option is always a smart idea as you are building credit towards your down payment and/or your closing costs. definately negotiate your lease and then negotiate the purchase aspect including price and terms such as how much they will credit you. Good luck with your lease.